Transcript Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

Dr. Lajos CSEPI
(State Secretary for Transport )
Hungary
CLIMATE CHANGE: ENERGY AND
TRANSPORT
Issues, challenges and strategies
in Hungary
Contents
• Projected climate change in Hungary (Carpathian Basin)
• Potential impacts of climate change on transportation
• Adaptation: incorporating climate change into transport
plans, programmes and policies
• Mitigation: Strategies and Instruments
• CO2-emissions by sector and subsector in EU-27 and in
Hungary
• Guiding principles in the Hungarian Energy Policy relevant
for climate change
• Conclusions
• Proposals
2
Projected climate change in Hungary
Reference period: climate of years from 1961 to 1990
Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)
3
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on
Transportation Focusing on Road Transport (1)
1.
2.
3.
Main effects:
– Increase of very hot days and heat waves
– More frequent precipitation events
– Increasing frequency and intensity of strong winds
Summarized results: warming of Hungary’s climate will
be 20–25% greater than Earth’s average, especially in
summer
Affected infrastructure:
– flooding of roads, railways and airports
– increase of temperature of road surface and rails in
summer (decrease of working load of pavement)
Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)
4
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on
Transportation Focusing on Road Transport (2)
4.
5.
Impacts on traffic safety:
– Increasing intensity of side winds on roads
– Increasing intensity of weather fronts
– Increasing heat waves
Change of habits and demands of transport
(passengers and goods)
Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)
5
Adaptation: incorporating of climate change
into transport plans, programmes and polices
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
More strategic, risk based approaches are needed for
investment decisions of redesigning and retrofitting
transport infrastructure
Inventory is needed of critical infrastructure (focusing
on roads) affected by climate change
Integration of information on extreme weather into the
public information system
Development of programmes for adaptation strategies
for the near and medium terms regarding vehicle
fleets and road infrastructures
Integrate emergency planning into operation
Large scale use of air condition in vehicles
Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)
6
Mitigation strategies and instruments
I.Strategies:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Carbon tax systems
CO2 emission trading
Evaluation of CO2 reduction
Harmonisation of policy for energy, climate change and
sustainability
Improvement of safety of energy supply by
diversification of motor fuels
Improvement of energy efficiency of vehicles
(20% by 2020)
Reduction of greenhouse gases (20% by 2020)
Increase of share of renewable energy (biofuels)
Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)
(20% by 2020)
7
II.Specific instruments for the transport sector:
Direct effects:
1. Fuel taxation (special carbon tax)
2. Vehicle taxation based on CO2 emission
3. User charges for infrastructure use with differentiation
or mark-ups for CO2
4. Regulation and standards
1.
2.
3.
Indirect effects:
Development of transport infrastructure
Planning of land-use, influencing transport demands
Development new technologies of vehicles
Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)
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9
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10
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11
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12
CO2 Emission in Hungary by Road Transport
14 000 000
12 000 000
8 000 000
6 000 000
4 000 000
2 000 000
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0
1991
emission (tons)
10 000 000
Source: KTI
(Institute for
Transport
Sciences)
13
Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)
14
Guiding Principles in the Hungarian Energy Policy
(2008–2020) Relevant for Climate Change
(40/2008. (IV. 17.) Parliamentary Decree)
• The Hungarian energy policy has to contribute to the
sustainable development by means of decrease of
specific energy consumption and increase of renewable
energy sources (Point 4)
• The harmony between the Hungarian policies of energy
and climate change has to be guaranteed (Point 5)
• The framing and implementation of the Hungarian
transport policy has to correspond to the energy policy
especially regarding the decrease of harmful emissions
of transport and increase of biofuels (Point 6)
Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)
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• Hungary supports the UNECE World Forum for
Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations Strategy
for CO2 reduction:
“From fossil fuels to H2 and electricity”
• Short term (2015)
– Energy efficiency by engine technology, TPMS, rolling
resistance ….
– Use of sustainable bio-fuels
• Mid term (2015-2025)
– Plug-in hybrid vehicles in the market
• Long term (2025-2040)
– Electric and Hydrogen vehicles in the market
• Sustainable and cost-effective generation of electricity
and production of H2 is needed
Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)
Conclusions/1
• The transport’s, especially the road transport’s share of
CO2 emission is determinant and increasing
• The regulations on CO2 emission of passenger cars can
be considered as first positive signal on the roadmap for
the CO2 reduction policy of EU
• The light duty and heavy duty trucks have a large share
in the CO2 emissions of road transport but no regulation
in this respect up to now
• The rapid increase of CO2 emission of the new member
countries can be prevented by replacement of their old
vehicle fleets, and by planned influencing of import of
old, used vehicles having high fuel consumption
Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)
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Conclusions/2
• The present economic crisis offers possibilities for
investments in this way for renewal of old vehicle fleets
thus for introducing new efficient technologies
• The climate change will generate qualitative problems
but not quantitative ones for the home transport
Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)
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Proposals
• Efficiency targets and requirements have to be
introduced for light duty and heavy duty trucks and city
buses
• Testing procedures and efficiency targets have to be
elaborated for air conditioning systems used in vehicles
as well as for tyres
• The replacement of old road vehicles has to be
supported EU-wide
• Information of forecast on weather extremes (shortrange and medium-range) has to be improved and
realise in international cooperation as soon as possible
Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)
19