Transcript The Science (and Politics) of Climate Change: How to Respond?

Our Climate, Our Faith,
Our Future
The Science (and Politics) of Climate
Change: How to Respond?
4/13/2010
Mt. Washington Presbyterian Church
A Little More of the Science
• Before we get to new things, do you have
any reactions from last time (e.g. from the
IPCC report)?
• Let’s start with the video we didn’t catch
last time;
• then we’ll move along to the non-science
and political machinations…..
Introducing:
Greg Craven
What is (good) science?
1. Science is not about proof, it’s about theories:
Scientists propose theories (which are hypotheses
on steroids, that have generally passed many
tests).
A theory is only a scientific theory if it is falsifiable.
Theories must make testable predictions: if a theory
makes a prediction that is not borne out, then the
theory is false (broken). If we can’t perform any
such tests, then the theory has no power: it’s just
an act of faith. Faith is good, it’s just not science.
What is good science? (cont.)
2. Science is without bias (well, it’s supposed to be, at any
rate!):
– There’s obvious bias (agenda trumps facts); when the
coal company weighs in on GCD, why am I skeptical?
– There’s more subtle bias:
• A drug researcher owns stock in company
• Al Gore reputedly has a stake in carbon trading companies
(just “putting his money where his mouth is?” – what if others
are putting their money there because of his mouth, and he’s
reaping the financial rewards? Might he trump up the
science….)
– Then there’s Confirmation Bias, referred to by Greg.
What is good science? (cont.)
2. Science is without bias:
– obvious bias (agenda trumps facts)
– subtle bias: promoting something in your self-interest
– Confirmation Bias — the notion that we overlook what
we don't agree with, and accentuate what we want to
hear: we start with belief and then look for evidence.
“The only way to have real success in science… is to
describe the evidence very carefully without regard to
the way you feel it should be. If you have a theory,
you must try to explain what’s good about it and
what’s bad about it equally. In science you learn a
kind of standard integrity and honesty.”
Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate
Midwest:
Summer: public health and quality of
life will be negatively affected by
increasing heat waves, reduced
air quality, and increasing insect
and waterborne diseases.
Increase in precipitation in winter
and spring, more heavy downpours,
greater evaporation in summer
(more periods of both floods and
water deficits)
Longer growing season: potential
for increased crop yields, subject to
Increases in heat waves, floods,
droughts, insects, and weeds present
increasing challenges to managing
crops, livestock, and forests.
Native species to face increasing
threats from rapidly changing climate
Source: U.S. Global Climate Research Program
Vostok Ice Core Data
Deniers say: Doesn’t CO2 lag Temperature?
Setting the Record Straight…
• While some television weathercasters are skeptical
about the role human activity plays in climate change,
most meteorologists agree that human activity is driving
global warming. According to an official statement of the
American Meteorological Society, "strong observational
evidence and results from modeling studies indicate that,
at least over the last 50 years, human activities are a
major contributor to climate change.“
• That statement is consistent with others from the
National Academy of Sciences, the U.N.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, NASA, the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the
American Geophysical Union, the American Physical
Society and other scientific institutions
• Source
What is non-science?
• Denialism:
what happens “when an entire segment of
society, often struggling with the trauma of
change, turns away from reality in favor of a
more comfortable lie.” [Michael Specter, Firing
Bullets of Data at Cozy Anti-Science]
• We don't know our science well enough to
insult it properly.
• Non-scientists demand proof.
What is non-science?
• Denialism
• We Americans don't know our science, and neither do our
“leaders”
– Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.):“it’s going to keep snowing in D.C.
until Al Gore cries ‘uncle.’”
– Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) quipped, “Where’s Al Gore now?”
– Sean Hannity: “It’s the most severe winter storm in years, which
would seem to contradict Al Gore’s hysterical global warming
theories.”
– Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich: “Historic snowstorm in
Washington — third this year — where is Al Gore to explain it
snows this heavily as a sign global warming is imminent.”
– 28% science literate – Science News, 3/13/2010
• Non-scientists demand proof.
What is non-science?
• Denialism
• We don't know our science.
• Non-scientists demand proof, as though science is
mathematics:
– Deniers don’t understand that there's no scientific
consensus on anything. Complete consensus is
the death of a theory.
– There's no consensus on gravity — scientists are
looking for evidence that disproves the inverse square
law of gravity (i.e. they’re trying to falsify it!)
– The absence of complete consensus on humancaused global warming does not pardon us from the
need to act – even if we choose not to act.
What leads us so far astray?
Scientific Opinion versus Public Opinion on Climate Change: Pew Center.
Scientists were selected from the American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science
Blowing Smoke with GCD?
January 4, 1954:
A Frank Statement to
Cigarette Smokers
March 10, 2010:
Lawmakers from Coal States
Seek to Delay Emission Limits
(New York Times)
Introducing: Don Blankenship
CEO,
Massey
Energy
So….
• How do we talk to people like Don?
• How about the average Joe?
• How can we make a difference?