Transcript Climate Change and Energy Security

NS4054
Fall Term 2015
Climate Change
and Energy Security
Overview
• Oxford Analytica, United States: Climate Change
Threatens Energy Supply July 24, 2013
• DoE report (July 11,2013) argues that climate change
poses significant risks to the domestic production and
distribution network
• DoE predicts disruptions and cascading system effects.
• However great differences between regions and energy
systems – make it difficult to develop a comprehensive
approach to the problem
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Aspects of the Problem
Important Aspects
• Federal standards will increasingly but not completely
unify the components of the energy system
• Modernization of power systems at the city and state
level will be necessary to accommodate increasing peak
demands
• Location of future power plants will be dependent on
water availability
• Several major trends have significant impacts on many of
the major utilities of the country, including electric, oil
and gas, and affiliated infrastructure system
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Climate Change Impacts I
• Air and water temperatures have risen and will continue
to rise
• Water availability in many parts of the country has
declined
• California drought the last four years
• From 2012 to early 2013 drought in the Great Plains and southcentral U.S.
• Followed a 2010-12 drought in Texas and Deep South
• Climate change exacerbates demand on water supplies,
because it extends the growing season; it has lengthened by
nearly two weeks since the early 20th century
• Extreme weather events are increasing in intensity and
frequency
• These trends have significant impacts on many of the
major utilities around the country
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Climate Change Impacts II
• Electricity will be affected in both production and
distribution networks
• Generation more difficult with a changed climate
• Power generation facilities more susceptible to shutdown
in high temperatures
• Thermoelectric power generation facilities use air and
water to cool their systems
• Many of these supply peak power during the hottest
hours of the year, compounding likelihood of failure
• Renewables resources will be increasingly challenged by
water shortages – hydropower, hydrostatic resources
used to store variable and uncertain power sources such
as wind and to grow bio-fuels.
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Climate Change Impacts III
• Water shortages will increase energy demand
• Movement and treatment of water is responsible for 4% of
total electricity consumption, 13% if end use is included.
• Shortages will necessitate increased distances and more
intensive treatment
• Distribution – transferring electricity to consumer also
more expensive and less reliable with elevated
temperatures and lower water supplies.
• Transformers and lines are also susceptible to failure in
high temperature conditions.
• Electric grid become less efficient and possesses a lower
capacity to deliver power in high temeratues.
• Currently about 7% of produced electricity is lost on the
grid.
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Climate Change Impacts IV
• Traditional bottlenecks between net summer generating
regions and their customers will be exacerbated
• The Bonneville Power Association in Oregon experienced
a net loss of 164 million dollars when it failed to meet its
power generation obligations, primarily due to low water
volumes.
Oil and Gas
• Production
• Off shoue exploration my benefit from longer ice-free
seasons in Arctic regions – tropical and sub-tropical
operations will see additional threats from extreme
weather events
• Some localities ban fracking because it depletes
groundwater supplies
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Climate Change Impacts V
• Distribution
• Supply chain for oil and gas, even if additional pipelines
are improved is vulnerable to effects of climate change.
• Barge and rail movement of oil and coal is more
susceptible to supply change disruptions as droughts
and flooding restrict movement more frequently
• Coastal refineries and distributions centers such a those
on the Gulf Coast, responsible for 48% of domestic
refinery capacity at increased risk from seal rise and
costly storm surge and flooding
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