Transcript Can we do this? - Georgia Climate Change Summit 2008

Meeting Emissions Targets:
Carbon Trading, Taxes, and Offsets
Bill Chameides, Dean
Nicholas School of the Environment
Duke University
[email protected]
919.724.0312
Acknowledgement:
Tim Profeta and Nicholas Institute staff
The Policy Options
-What can we do? • Can not reverse the warming
• Even if we stopped emitting CO2 today,
warming would continue for ~ 30 years
• However it is not too late avoid dangerous,
irreversible climate change
Dangerous Tipping Points:
Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet
This would commit the
world to a 20 foot increase
in sea level.
Dangerous Tipping Points:
Melting of the Permafrost
Zimov et al. 2006
This could lead to an increase in atmospheric burden of
global warming pollutants 10 times present amount.
The Policy Imperative
• Avoid dangerous climate change
– Prevent climate system from passing a “tipping
point” that leads to irreversible climate change
0
2
Current 1 Warming in
warming
“pipeline”
42
6
3
(F)
Temperature Above Preindustrial (C)
84
What will it take to avoid passing the ice sheet tipping point?
GLOBAL ANNUAL CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FOSSIL FUELS
G
I
G
GA
IT
GO
AN
TS
O
NC
SA
R
B
O
N
50% chance of not passing
4 oF threshold
Midrange business-asusual: 700 ppm in
2100
Stabilize at 450 ppm
Stabilize at 350 ppm
U.S. is a major “player”
2005 ANNUAL EMISSIONS*
EMISSIONS*
1750-2005 ACCUMULATED
*Fossil fuel emissions only
Illustrative example of U.S. cap
15% reduction by 2020,
80% reduction by 2050 (both relative to 2007)
Can we do this?
12
8
4
0
The
Technological
“Wedges”
Socolow & Pacala,
2006
Illustrative example of U.S. cap
15% reduction by 2020,
70% reduction by 2050 (both relative to 2007)
Business as usual
How best to get technologies deployed?
1. “Manhattan-like” Project
2. Taxes – provides economic certainty, but not
environmental certainty
3. Cap-and-trade – provides environmental
certainty, but no cap on costs
Lieberman-Warner: Critical Issues
Cost containment
Safety valve  C Market “Fed”
Distribution of Allowances
Allocation vs. Auction
Allowance Recipients and Auctioning Under Lieberman-Warner, Budget-Neutral
April 2008
100
Budget Neutral Appropriations
Rural Energy Assistance
90
WAP
LIHEAP
Climate Change and Nat'l Security Fund
80
Adaptation Fund
Energy Independence Accel. Fund
Energy Technology Deployment
Early Action
60
Natural Gas Distributors
Electricity Distribution Companies
50
Methane Capture-- Landfills & Coal Mines
Carbon Capture & Sequestration
Domestic Ag & Forestry
40
International Forests
Tribal Communities
States--Multipurpose
30
States--Mass Transit
States--Aggressive Emissions Targets
20
States--Utility and Building Energy Savings
HFC Facilities
Petroleum Facilities
10
Manufacturing Sector
Electric Power Sector
Rural Electric Cooperatives
2048
2045
2042
2039
2036
2033
2030
2027
2024
2021
2018
2015
0
2012
“Giveaways” to
fossil-fuel
sector
Percent of Allowances
Worker Training Fund
70
*Shaded allocations represent auction
Lieberman-Warner: Critical Issues
Cost containment
Safety valve  C Market “Fed”
Distribution of Allowances
Allocation vs. Auction
Offsets
How much; how to assure they are “real”
Land-management offsets: Examples
• Capture methane emissions from
manure, land fills, etc
Land-management offsets: Examples
Compensated Reductions (REDD)
Reimbursing tropical rainforest nations for
slowing the rate of deforestation
US
emissions
Cut 2025 emissions
Can offsets play atosignificant
role?
~ 90% of present
US offsets
(2025)
Lieberman-Warner: Critical Issues
Cost containment
Safety valve  C Market “Fed”
Distribution of Allowances
Allocation vs. Auction
Offsets
How much; how to assure they are “real”
Nuclear Power
Foreign Trade
How to protect high C imports within WTO
The time window is narrowing
on greenhouse gas stabilization pathways
Global CO2 emissions
(billion tons of carbon)
Emission Pathways to Meet Stabilization
Target: 450 ppm by 2100
12
D
E
C
10
A B
B and C:
2020: emissions peak
2050: emissions down by ~ 60%
2100: emissions down by ~ 80%
8
6
4
2
A
Too
late for 10
A years it will
In another
be too late
for B and
Current
proposals
fall C
near B and C
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100