Transcript Central and West Asia Wind Resource Maps and Potential

Planning Tool for Policy-Makers: GIS-based wind
resource mapping in Central & West Asia (TA 7274)
Peter J. Hayes, Senior
Climate Change Specialist,
ADB (CWRD)
[email protected]
Mark Allington,
Managing Director
ICF International
[email protected]
Wind Energy Status in Asia:
2nd. ADB Quantum Leap in
Wind Conference (Asia
Clean Energy Forum 2011),
Manila, 20 June 2011
Genesis of wind resource map effort

TA7274 Enabling Climate
Change Interventions in Central
& West Asia

Region: Highly vulnerability to
CC, high abatement ops

Need for Vulnerability & RE
(solar & wind) resource maps

Formulation of high resolution
wind resource maps (10
months)
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TA 7274 map coverage
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Afghanistan
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Pakistan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Why Map Wind Opportunities?
 Allows investors to assess the energy yield,
scale of investment needed and possible
returns, at a range of power purchase tariffs,
across a geographical area
 Allows comparison of the relative economic
viability of different locations
 Facilitates dialogue on what needs to change to
attract investment
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Assessment of Renewable Energy Potential within TA 7274
Theoretical
resource
Ten CWA countries
Ecological
resource
Economic
resource
Wind, photovoltaics,
concentrating solar
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Example: Kazakhstan wind
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Wind theoretical resource
Wind power density and energy yield (source: NREL)
Average annual wind
speed class m/2
Wind power density
MW/km2
Load factor
<6
6-7
7-8
8-9
>9
2
4
7
10
14
19.41%
22.83%
30.00%
36.53%
47.95%
Average annual wind speed GIS data at 100m hub height, grid square
size ~10km2 (2 arc-minutes)
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Kazakhstan wind – theoretical resource
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Wind ecological resource calculation
Weighted exclusion factors applied for:

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Airports/runway alignments, railroads, urban areas
National borders (5km buffer)
Bird migration pathways
Areas >20km away from roads (for construction access)
Seismic danger areas
Areas with elevation >3500m or slopes >33%
All environmentally protected areas
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Kazakhstan wind – ecological resource
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Wind economic resource calculation
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Capital costs (capex)
Grid connection costs:
Operational lifetime:
Nearest electricity grid:
Others
 Straight line depreciation period:
 Income tax rate:
 Operating/maintenance costs:
 Discount rate:
 Power purchase tariff USD/MWh:

$2,500/kW
$55,000/km
25 years
200 ha urban
20 years
20%
2% capex
8% or 12%
varied
Grid square assumed economically viable at a given tariff /
discount rate combination if Net Present Value is positive after
operational lifetime
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Kazakhstan – infrastructure and ADB project locations
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Kazakhstan wind – economically viable
resource at 12% discount rate
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Kazakhstan wind: energy yield versus
tariff at different discount rates
16000000
14000000
12000000
10000000
GWh @ 8%
8000000
GWh @ 12%
6000000
4000000
2000000
USD/MWh power
purchase tariff (25
year lifetime)
0
75
85
95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175
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Kazakhstan wind: energy yield versus
tariff at 12% discount rate
GWh @ 12%
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
10.4 GW
GWh @ 12%
95
100
105
USD/MWh power
purchase tariff (25
year lifetime)
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Kazakhzstan wind – best sites
Distance to
nearest 35 kv Grid
economic economic
distribution square
resource
resource
X_COORD
Y_COORD line in km
area km2 MW
GWh/yr
81.950
46.017
10.4
9.526
133
560
81.917
46.050
11.2
9.520
133
560
81.983
45.983
11.3
9.532
133
560
81.950
45.983
12.8
9.532
133
560
81.883
46.083
13.4
9.515
133
559
81.983
45.950
14.4
9.538
134
561
81.950
45.950
15.8
9.538
134
561
82.017
45.917
17.0
9.543
134
561
81.917
45.950
17.3
9.538
134
561
81.983
45.917
17.8
9.543
134
561
81.950
45.917
18.9
9.543
134
561
81.883
45.950
19.0
9.538
134
561
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Limitations
 This method can guide where pre-feasibility
study work is likely to be worthwhile
 However it does not replace site-specific,
technical and economic investigations and
costing
 Accuracy of wind speed estimates is around +/10%
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 GIS Visualization & Decision-Making
Tool: Demonstration
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Planning Tool for Policy-Makers: GIS-based wind
resource mapping in Central & West Asia (TA 7274)
Peter J. Hayes, Senior
Climate Change Specialist,
ADB (CWRD)
[email protected]
Mark Allington,
Managing Director
ICF International
[email protected]
Wind Energy Status in Asia:
2nd. ADB Quantum Leap in
Wind Conference (Asia
Clean Energy Forum 2011),
Manila, 20 June 2011