Transcript The links to global problems

The links to global problems
Presentation at the 25th anniversary
special event of the Convention on
Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution
“Past successes and future challenges”
Henning Wuester
UNFCCC Secretariat
Structure
1. Introduction
2. The substantive links between air
pollution and climate change
• Atmospheric chemistry
• Techno-economic links
• (Impact interdependencies)
3. Lessons for global problems from 25
years of LRTAP
4. Challenges
Air pollutants act as greenhouse gases:
Global mean radiative forcing 2000 relative to 1750
Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001
Different projections for CH4 emissions
United States of America
European Community
Ukraine
Canada
Russian Federation
Other
Australia
30
25
20
15
10
700
5
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Methane emissions from developed countries for 1990-2001,
UNFCCC data
CH4 emissions (Tg/yr)
Methane emissions (in Tg)
35
A1B
A1T
600
A1F1
A2
500
B1
B2
400
A1p
A2p
300
B1p
B2p
… further research and
better data are needed!
200
1990
IS92a
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Methane emissions for the period 1990-2060 according to IPCC scenarios
Sources of air pollutants and greenhouse
gases and joint abatement options
Common sources:
•Energy (power generation, heating)
•Transport
•Industrial processes
•Agriculture
Examples of common measures to cut air pollution
and mitigate climate change:
•Enhance energy efficiency
•Shift to renewable energy
•Shift to natural gas
There are also trade-offs, e.g. biomass burning,
ammonia abatement.
Potential cost-savings estimated for EU by the
IIASA RAINS model
Emission control costs compared to reference
scenarios (billion €/yr):
Control of
CO2
CH4
GHGs (total)
SO2
NOx
PM
Air pollutants
(total)
Total
Fuel-shift
+3.5
0
+3.5
-1.4
-0.3
-0.6
-2.3
Multi-gas
+2.1
-1.2
+0.9
-1.2
-0.2
-0.4
-1.8
+1.2
-0.9
Comparing LRTAP and UNFCCC
Similarities
Differences
• Anniversary in
December 2004
• Atmospheric problem
with similar sources
• Political problems with
the 1st protocol:
concerns over the
basic approach
• Strong role of science
in driving policy
• Affordable technical
fixes available for air
pollutants
• Autonomous structural
change in the region
• Transition process of the
1990s for UNECE region
• Economic differences
between Parties is lower
in LRTAP
SO2 emissions: European total 1960-2020: Avoided
emissions compared to hypothetical levels
70000
SO2 emission (kt p.a.)
60000
50000
Reductions due
to control
measures
40000
Reductions due
to changes
within sectors
30000
Red. due to
changes in
energy
structure
Actual SO2
emissions
20000
10000
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
What lessons to learn from 25 years of
LRTAP?
• Science-based approach: Critical
loads and levels as a common metric
to evaluate policy impact
• Variable geometry of obligations in
more advanced protocols (emission
ceilings, technology requirements, etc.)
• De-link substantive issues from
economic concerns (equity)
Challenges
• Contribute to climate change objectives by
reducing O3 and BC at hemispheric scale
• Make use of synergies by policy integration at
the national level
• At international level:
– Consistent reporting systems
– Cooperation at technical level (emission inventories,
atmospheric and integrated assessment modelling)
• LRTAP has a responsibility to offer its experience,
while recognizing differences:
– To other regions on air pollution issues
– To global processes on environmental issues