Transcript The Situation in Argentina

What in The World?
Energy & Climate Change in
Argentina
Lucila Serra
Torcuato Di Tella
Foundation
Global Energy & Climate
Change
UCLA Conference Center
at Lake Arrowhead
October 22-24
CONTENTS
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ENERGY SITUATION
GHG EMISSIONS
CLIMATE CHANGE
ACTIONS
CONCLUSIONS
1*ENERGY SITUATION
Argentina's Energy Situation
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In 2000 Argentina was South America's third largest energy
consumer, as well as the continent's second largest emitter of
carbon dioxide, resulting from the consumption of fossil fuels.
During the 1990s Argentina's energy demand grew annually at an
average rate of 6%
In 2000, Argentina's energy profile strongly reflected the countries
past decade of growth. Argentina had South America's second
highest per capita energy consumption at 73.2 million Btu per
person behind only Venezuela. This reflected the country's growing
affluence relative to other South American countries, although it still
measured only one-fifth the per capita energy consumption in the
United States (351.0 million Btu).
Energy consumption in Argentina has been dominated by the
industrial and transport sectors, and until the country's financial
collapse in 2001, was expected to continue growing rapidly.
Argentina's total energy consumption in 2000 was 2.7 quadrillion
Btu, or 0.7% of the world's total energy consumption. Per capita
carbon emissions in Argentina also are the second highest in
South America, after Venezuela.
Energy Matrix
Fossil fuels dominate Argentina’s energy
consumption, with an energy matrix structured
in the following way:
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Natural Gas (45%)
Oil/petroleum (41%)
Hydropower (6%)
Nuclear (2%)
Firewood (1%)
Organic waste from sugar cane “Bagasse” (1%)
Mineral carbon (1%)
Other sources (3%).
8% of the matrix consists of renewable energy, without
considering the other percentage not specified (3%), which
includes energy sources such as solar and wind energy.
Electric Energy
Total installed power is 25.5 GW.
Year 2005 - Total electric energy generation 92,176 GWh
(5.8% above the accumulated energy in 2004)
- Total energy demand 87,778.5 GWh
95.000
90.000
90.000
85.000
85.000
80.000
80.000
75.000
75.000
70.000
70.000
2002
2003
2004
Generation (GWh)
2005
2002
2003
2004
Demand (GWh)
2005
Electric Energy
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The participation per source during 2005 was: Thermal Generation
49,801.9 GWh (54.0%); Hydraulic Generation: 36,000.0 GWh
(39.1%); Nuclear Generation: 6,374.1 GWh (6.9%).
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The export of accumulated electric energy during 2005 was of 1,800
GWh, 13.0% less than the accumulated energy during the same
period in 2004.
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The import of electric energy in 2005 increased by 11.2% with
respect to 2004, reaching almost the same level as the export.
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As from 2004 there has been a major increase in fuel oil
consumption due to the natural gas supply crisis. 634,000 tons out
of the total amount consumed that year were imported from
Venezuela. Fuel oil consumption increased by 50% in 2005. There
are also significant increases in the consumption of mineral carbon
and, to a lesser extent, of gasoil.
Territorial Distribution of the Supply
NOA
NEA
BUENOS AIRES 12,4 %
LITORAL
COMAHUE 3,8%
CENTRO
AREA METROPOLITANA
CUYO
PATAGONIA 4,8%
BUENOS AIRES
NOA 6,6%
COMAHUE
NEA 4,5%
AREA METROPOLITANA 41,8%
PATAGONIA
CENTRO 8,1%
CUY0 5,8%
LITORAL 12,3 %
Source: Secretary of Energy
Location of the Sources of the
Electric Supply
NOA
NG
NEA + LIT
HYDRO
GBA
CENTRE CUYO
NUCLEAR
NG PIPELINES
COMAHUE
HYDRO+NG
PATAGONIA
HYDRO
WIND
NG
Natural Gas
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51,453 million m3 was the accumulated production of NG in 2005 (1.0%
less than the accumulated production during 2004). It is the first time
that natural gas production has decreased in the last 15 years.
The NG volume delivered by distributors, accumulated during 2005,
increased by 3.5% with respect to the same period in the previous year.
Since there has been no production growth in 2005, the rise in the
demand was satisfied by a greater gas import from Bolivia as compared
to 2004 and a reduction in the exported volumes (mainly to Chile) as
compared to the previous year.
During 2005 the Residential Sector demand rose by almost 8% with
respect to the previous year. Over the last 4 years, the consumption in
Electric Plants has triggered the growth in natural gas demand, followed
by GNC demand.
The total exported gas volume in 2005 diminished by 11.1% with
respect to the total exported volume in 2004. The gas volume imported
from Bolivia during 2005 reached 1,720.8 million m3, 116.6% above the
imported volume during 2004. The import volume in the last year
represented 3.3% of the country production. Exports to Chile fell by
12.8% in 2005, mainly affecting gas pipeline Gas Andes which supplies
gas to the city of Santiago. Natural gas exports to Brazil fell by almost
24% as well, which have also decreased as compared to 2002.
Crude Oil
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The accumulated production of crude oil amounted to 38.54
million m3 in 2005 (4.7% less than the accumulated
production in 2004).
The accumulated export volume in 2005 was 17.0% less than
the accumulated volume in 2004.
The processed oil volume in 2003 reached 31.0 million m3,
showing a slight decrease with respect to the processed oil in
the same period in 2004 (-0,6%).
Oil industry activity, measured in terms of the quantity of
finished wells, keeps the level of 1200 wells a day, out of
which less than 10% correspond to productive gas wells and
less than 5% to non-productive wells. Exploratory activity is
still very limited (between 60,000 and 90,000 meters of
exploratory wells were drilled per year between 2002 and
2006, which represents less than 5% of the total drilled
quantity.)
Oil Reserves
…are more scarce every day
Años
Total País
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1989
1991
1993
1995
Petróleo
1997
1999
2001
Gas Natural
2003
Liquid Fuels
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In 2005, the volume of fuel sales to the domestic market of
gasoil, gasoline and GNC increased by 6.9% as compared to
the volume of sales registered in 2004, thus keeping the
upward trend. In 2005, the sale of gasoil to the domestic
market was of 12.0 million m3, 7.7% more than the same
period in 2004.
The volume of Super Gasoline sold in the domestic market
during 2005 was 13.1% higher than the volume sold in 2004
(3.2 million m3).
The GNC sale accumulated up to December 2005 amounted
to 3,167.8 million m3, exceeding by 3.4% the sale registered
in 2004.
The volume of liquid fuels exports: gasoil and gasoline
accumulated up to December 2005 was 14.8% lower than the
volume accumulated in 2004, thus continuing the downward
trend.
2* GHG EMISSIONS
GHG Emissions in Argentina
Total
Growth
Thousands of tons of CO2 eq
1990
1994
1997
238553 267737 280415
12.23%
4.74%
2000
290843
3.72%
Composition by Sector
Energy
44
Industrial Processes
3
Agriculture and Livestock 49
Waste
4
46
3
47
4
46
3
46
5
• The Transport sector represents 14 % of the Total Emissions
• Enteric Fermentation represents 20 % of the Total Emission
• The production of cement and metals represents 80% of the
industrial processes emissions
45
3
47
5
CO2 Emissions - Energy Sector
Year 2000 in Miles of Ton of CO2
Sectoral Consumption and Apparent
Consumption
GHG Inventory – Argentina – year 2000
CO2 Emissions - Transport Sector
Argentina – Year 2000
Total: 41,9 Millions of CO2e
GHG Emissions -Transport Sector
Argentina – year 2000 –Miles of Tons
CH4 Emissions - Sub-sector Air Traffic
Argentina – year 2000
3*CLIMATE CHANGE
Impacts and Problems Caused By
Fossil Fuels:
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HUMAN HEALTH IMPACTS: Respiratory problems, Heatrelated deaths and illness, Spread of disease (insect-borne
diseases), drought (devastating effect on food resources,
drinking water supplies),
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ECONOMIC IMPACTS: National Security, the end of cheap
oil and gas, economic whiplash, Property loss & skyrocketing
insurance claims,
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ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS: Air pollution, water pollution,
loss of biodiversity.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate Change:
Impacts and Major Concerns in
Argentina
 Water Shortage Due To Increasing Temperatures –
Energy Problems
 Sea Level Rise Impact In Buenos Aires (17 Cm In
The Port of Bs As)
 Increasing Frecuency of Extreme Weather Events
& Storms
 Glacier Receding
Climate Change:
Impacts and Major Concerns in
Argentina
LA PLATA RIVER BASIN (Shared With 4 Other Countries):
75 % of the Precipitation Evaporates. Only about
25 % runoff to the Rivers
A 4 C Warming would increase Evaporation By 30 %
 Agriculture
 Transportation
 Hydropower
 Navigation
 Water Supply
Are Highly Vulnerable
To Climate Change
!
GLACIER’S RECEDING (48 out of 50)
Upsala Glaciar
Aerial Photography, November 1968
Satellite Image from the
Landsat Satellite , May 2004
INCREASING FREQUENCY AND
INTENSITY IN ANNUAL PRECIPITATIONS
Buenos Aires - Precipitación Anual
2000
1800
1600
mm
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
CLIMATE CHANGE
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FOR ARGENTINA IS VITAL TO ADDRESS
CLIMATE CHANGE BECAUSE:
It is a new and additional barrier to Sustainable
Development
Its adverse effects divert resources essential to
social policies (housing, health, education and
environment)
Thus, it is of the country's interest to contribute
to the international climate policy regime after
2012
5*ACTIONS
ACTIONS
MITIGATION
- Policies & Programs
- Regulations
- UNFCCC - Kyoto Protocol – CDM
ADAPTATION
- Development of the National
Adaptation Plan
Mitigation
NATIONAL PROGRAMS
National Program of Biofuels (Resolution SADS 1076/01)
National Program of Alternative Energies and Fuels (Disposition
SADS166/01)
- National Program of rational Use of Electric Energy (Resolution SE
415/04)- Goal: To give an incentive to save electric energy to
generate a surplus for industrial uses.
- National Program for the Rational Use of Energy – SE - Natural Gas
The approach of price and rational energy use policy, PURE
(Programa de Uso Racional de la Energía).
LOCAL PROGRAMS
- Province of Chubut - Law 4389/98 and Decree 235/99 – The
Province gives a bonus of $ 0,5 for every Kw/h generated with wind
energy. It demands an increasing percentage of local manufacture.
Mitigation
RESULTS: ENERGY MIX COMPARISON
1970
2003
80
70
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
0
Hidraulic
Energy
Nuclear
Natural
Gas
Oil
Mineral
Coal
Wood
Bagasse
Others
Mitigation
In the last three decades:
• Hydroelectric power
(50% of electricity generation)
• Substitution of fuel oil for natural gas
in combined cycles
• Subsidies to Wind Energy
• National Biofuels Law (5%)
• The largest automotive fleet run with
natural gas (1,100,000 vehicles)
Automotive Fleet: GNC in Argentina
1984.................
1991 ................
2000 ................
2003 ................
Argentina
100
100.000
450.000 (6,8%)
950.000 (13,1%)
RMBA
Convertion into NCG (bi-fuel)
converted vehicles
“
300.000 (7,6%)
“
570.000 (13,3%)
“
AUTOMOVILES
(Vehículos Livianos)
1.663.115
(1993-2000)
2000000
6.193437
(1959-2000)
GAS
DIESEL
GNC
538.728
(1959-2000)
446.497
(1984-2000)
1999
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1998
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The convertion of vehicles into GNC started in 1984 with the 10
years Program
The program was successful because of the differences in prices
between fuels, particularly between GNC and gasoline.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
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CO2 Emission Reductions with NCG in
Argentina
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Light Vehicles (Cars): For the year 2000, and as a result of the
convertion of 6,8 % of the automotive fleet into NCG the CO2
emission reductions were between 0,5 – 0,9 %.
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Heavy Vehicles (Buses and Trucks): NCG in Argentina: Parliament is
considering national bills to renew urban transportation and to convert
heavy fleet into NCG. (“Plan Estratégico Productivo Nacional De
Desarrollo De La Cadena De La Industria De Artefactos Móviles
Propulsados A Gas”) 15 year Program.It will include NLG as an
alternative for long distance transportation
Mitigation
- Ratified UNFCCC - 1994
- Ratified the Kyoto Protocol - 2001
- Established Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) Argentina Office-1998
- Established the DNA – SADS- 2002
- Established Climate Change Office (UCC)
2003
- National Decree – Development of
Argentine Carbon Fund - 2005
SECTORS FOR CDM PROJECTS
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Energy (Oil and gas, electricity)
Energy (Transport)
Industry
Agriculture and Livestock
Waste
Forestry
GHG EMISSION REDUCTIONS
OPPORTUNITIES
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Electric Energy Generation: Hydraulic, Wind Power,
Geothermic and Biomass / Transport /Cogeneration
Transport: Biodiesel, Railways and Underground
Energy Efficiency: Annual demand of electric energy
91,000 MWh/year / 10 - 20 % possible reduction
Distribution and Transport of Natural Gas
Municipal Solid Wastes: 15 Landfills
Forestation: 20 million hectares
Waste Water Treatment Plants
Cement, Steel, Aluminum, Chemistry and Agro industry
Oil & Gas (CO2 sequestration and storage / Distribution
and Transport of Natural Gas/Efficiency in Refineries)
Agriculture and Livestock
BY SECTOR
BY REGION
Conclusions
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Policy priorities in Argentina: securing energy supply for its economic growth
and curbing environmental pollution, CDM offers a good instrument for
realizing the ambitious domestic energy and environment goals;
Transfer of Technology: Argentina embraces technology cooperation with
different parties in the field of climate change and clean energy.
Climate change is a top policy priority in Argentina. Its synergies with
environmental protection and energy security improvement enables it to be
integrated into Argentina’s overall development policy.
Renewable Energies are a way to promote the sustainable development of
the Nation by reducing the associated growth in GHG emissions through
conservation, adoption of cleaner, more efficient, and emission-reducing
technologies, and sequestration.
It is important to develop wind resource and biomass (biodiesel, ethanol), to
keep pace with the growth.
Argentina is now recovering from an economic and social crisis, and these
systems are gradually getting reactivated, generating new investment and
possibilities of development of RE. It is a favorable moment for the
renewable energies to take position as the driving force of a firm and
sustainable development.
MUCHAS GRACIAS!
Lucila Serra
Torcuato
Di Tella Foundation
[email protected]
www.itdt.edu
Argentina
Perito Moreno Glaciar
Argentina