Transcript Land Use Planning and Climate Change: The Role of

Land use planning and
climate change: role of
insurance
Jane Milne
Head of Household and Property
ESPACE International Conference
29 November 2005
Changing costs of
extreme weather
• Costs doubling each decade
• Since 1990, $16 bn each
year on average
• 2004 was costliest year on
record: Central European
Flood - $40 bn
• Hurricane Katrina 2005 $40 – 60 bn
• UK Floods: Autumn 2000,
Boscastle, Carlisle, North
Yorkshire
UK Flood Cover
• UK is unusual in offering flood
cover as a standard feature of
household insurance
• Typical premium is £320 per year
• Average flood cost £15 – 30k
• Only sustainable where flood risk
is managed.
ABI Statement of Principles
• Provide flood cover as standard feature under
normal competitive market for those at 1.3% annual
probability of flooding (1-in-75 yr) or less
• Continue cover in areas where defences will be in
place in next five years that reduce risk to 1.3%
annual probability or less
• Use best efforts, on a case-by-case basis, with
existing policyholders where no defences are
planned and risks are unacceptably high
ABI Project “Making
Communities Sustainable”
• Potential financial costs
of flooding arising from
additional development
in the growth areas
• Most effective
approaches to manage
the risk in coming
decades
Land Use Planning Policy
(PPG25) Performance
2001/
02
758
2002/
03
1047
2003/
04
1437
Proportion of applications
going ahead against
sustained objection
37%
21%
23%
Major developments going
ahead contrary to EA
advice
50
22
21
Sustained objections
made on flood risk (where
outcome is known)
Land Use Planning Policy
(PPG25)
Key features of PPG25:
• Sequential approach potentially powerful, but:
• EA only consulted on half applications
• 1-in-5 applications where EA sustains its
objection are approved
• Only half final decisions reported back to EA
Mapping Development Sites
onto Flood Map
Source: Environment Agency, NERC/CEH, UK Hydrographic Office, Ordnance Survey
Annual Costs of Flooding to 2016
Adaptation 1a. Floodplain Avoidance
• Ashford, M11 and South Midlands
- Between 86 - 97% losses
removed due to effective
planning (PPG25)
-100% savings in some locations
(Aylesbury, Bedford, Kettering)
• Thames Gateway
- Limited scope for floodplain
avoidance - very low savings
Adaptation 1b. Sequential test
behind defences
• Ashford, M11 and South Midlands
- Higher development density
results in 90 - 100% savings
in most locations
• Thames Gateway
- Increased savings for most
areas (40 - 52%)
Adaptation 2. Reduce Vulnerability
• Increasing development density =
Decreased damages (up to 58%)
• Greatest impact in ‘significant’ flood
risk areas
• Increased construction costs per home
(30 - 50%)
• Additional benefits at groundlevel (car
parking etc.)
ABI Guidance - Strategic
Planning for Flood Risk
• Planners and developers should consider key flooding and
development issues when carrying out an appropriate flood risk
assessment for their development plan
• Key considerations:
– LOCATION OF NEW DEVELOPMENTS: sequential
planning approach
– DESIGN OF NEW FLOOD DEFENCES: standard of
defence and tackling aggregation
– TYPES OF HOMES: fully-certified resilient construction
methods
– SITE CONSIDERATIONS: sustainable drainage
Conclusions
•
•
Stronger planning system to
avoid flood risk where
possible, including clearer role
for Environment Agency and
allowance for climate change
Code for Sustainable Buildings
should include resilience to
climate change (but still better
to avoid floodplain)
http://www.abi.org.uk/housing