Transcript Part 3
Issues Energy Future: Issues • A high rate of energy consumption has environmental impact – Global Warming is predicted, with a variety of side effects • Human-induced linkage evidence is mounting – There may be increased potential for sudden, unpredictable change • Fossil fuel consumption can produce serious direct health side effects, predominantly respiratory illnesses. • Key energy producing countries have their own domestic agenda and issues – May not be a collaborative or predictable supplier • There are long delays between the time of an impulse into the environment and the time … A Piece Of The Data Continuum The “Keeting Curve” Mauna Loa "Keeting Graph" 380 Mauna Loa, CO2 Concentrations 370 350 340 July (ppmv) 330 320 310 http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.htm 300 290 280 19 58 19 60 19 62 19 64 19 66 19 68 19 70 19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 Carbon Dioxide (ppmv) At 360 Year The Carbon Cycle Atmosphere 62.3 60.0 Land 6.3 The Kyoto Protocol seeks to reduce total emissions by about 0.2 90.0 92.3 Consumed Fuel Ocean Units: Gross Tons Of Carbon Per Year Source: Turkenburg A 1000 Year Look At Constituents Of The Earth’s Atmosphere CO2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples and Projections for Next 100 Years Vostok Record IPCC IS92a Scenario Law Dome Record Mauna Loa Record 700 Projected (2100) 650 600 550 500 450 400 Current (2001) 350 300 250 200 150 400,000 300,000 200,000 Years Before Present (BP 1950) (B.P. -- 1950) 100,000 0 CO Concentration(ppmv) (ppmv) CO 2 2Concentration Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the next 100 years would be higher than at anytime in the last 440,000 yrs The Land and Oceans have warmed Source: IPCC Global mean surface temperatures have increased Source: IPCC The frequency, persistence and magnitude of El-Nino events have increased in the last 20 years El Niño years La Niña years The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics Source: IPCC Precipitation patterns have changed Source: IPCC Sea Levels have risen Source: IPCC Changes in temperature have been associated with changes in physical and biological systems Examples include: • reduction in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness in summer • non-polar glacier retreat • earlier flowering and longer growing and breeding season for plants and animals in the Northern Hemisphere • poleward and upward (altitudinal) migration of plants, birds, fish and insects; earlier spring migration and later departure of birds in the Northern Hemisphere • increased incidence of coral bleaching Sea Ice Extent Has Been Shrinking Source: NSIDC News, http://nsidc.org/seaice/news.html This figure illustrates September ice extent (millions of square kilometers) for the period covered by the satellite data record. A line fit to the data points shows that over the years 1979 to 2002, there has been a trend toward lower summer minimums. As this figure illustrates, there is considerable variability in minimum extent from year to year. Shrinking Polar Cap: 2002 Satellite data show the area of the Arctic Ocean covered by sea ice in September 2002. This figure shows lower concentrations of ice floes than average for the period 1987-2001 in blue, and higher concentrations in yellow. The lavender line indicates a more typical ice extent (the median for 1987-2001). The white circle at the North Pole is the area not imaged by the satellite sensor. Source: NSIDC News, http://nsidc.org/seaice/news.html Mount Kilimanjaro Ice Cap Shrinks: Soot? February 17, 1993 February 21, 2000 • 80% of ice is gone (since 1900); formed 11000 years ago • Scientists (Hansen and Nazarenko) are finding warm winters rather than warm summers to be the cause The IPCC Makes The Case For Human Inducement Of Climate Change Source: IPCC Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC Source: IPCC Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall increase projected Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990 Source: IPCC Projected concentrations of CO2 during the 21st century are two to four times the pre-industrial level Scientists appear to be focusing on limiting the levels to 2X pre-industrial levels or 550 ppm Source: IPCC concentration of carbon dioxide will require significant emissions reductions (Target 550 PPM is a general scientist goal) Is there potential for environmental catastrophe? • Examples: – West Antarctica Ice Sheet Collapse – Rapid species isolation and extinction – Disruption of the themohaline circulation West Antarctica Ice Sheet Collapse? • See: http://www.co2science.org/subject/w/summaries/wai s.htm • Most researchers believe this to be very unlikely, but – 5% chance of happening, per study led by British Antarctic Survey – One meter ocean level rise within a century; 5 meters over several hundred years. • Similar concerns apply to the ice sheet covering Greenland. Will there be mass extinctions? • From Nature, January 8, 2004: “Many plant and animal species are unlikely to survive climate change” • 15–37% of a sample of 1,103 land plants and animals would eventually become extinct as a result of climate changes expected by 2050. – For some of these species there will no longer be anywhere suitable to live. – Others will be unable to reach places The themohaline circulation could be disrupted by climate change The Big Picture • To stabilize at 550 PPM of C02 (twice the pre-industrial level and one that produces roughly 2-4o C. of temperature rise) would require approx. 20 TW of carbon free power. • In other words, the projection is that we will need as much as twice as much carbon-free power by 2050 than the total power produced, by all sources, globally, at present. Source: Nathan Lewis Projected Carbon-Free Primary Power Source: Nathan Lewis Long Time Periods Are Required For CO2 Pulse To Be Absorbed Source: IPCC Qualitative Impact of A “Carbon Pulse” Source: IPCC The cost of compliance increases with lower stabilization levels Source: IPCC Projected mitigation costs are sensitive to the assumed emissions baseline Source: IPCC Political Tipping Points Could Force Accelerated Change • Examples: – Turbulence in Saudi Arabia – Caspian Sea politics – China becoming the most powerful energy negotiator – Nuclear war in Middle East – Persistent disruption of key oil pipelines – Terrorist attack on LNG infrastructure – Costs of oil after peak of production? • Costs of recovery? Key Oil Produces Have Potentially Unstable Governments World Oil Production 2002 (Colored By Political Stability (BKR)) India Gabon Malaysia Egypt Mexico Other1 Venezuela Oman UAE Russia Saudi Arabia1 Syria US Qatar Nigeria Libya Norw ay Kuw ait1 UK Iraq Iran North Sea Indonesia Algeria Angola China Brazil Ecuador Canada Colombia Source: EIA (BKR opinion on stability) Australia Argentina The Gap Between Rich And Poor Grows • Energy is capital intensive – Poor countries do not have the resources – Impact: burn down the forests. – 2 B people rely on primary energy sources (e.g. wood). – Energy costs in poorer countries range from 12-26 percent (vs a few percent in U.S.). • Inequality between rural and urban. – Good(?) news is that people are moving to urban areas. Source: Geller Pollution Effects • 500,000 deaths are attributed to air quality issues each year. – Earth Policy Institute claims 3M lives lost/yr. (vs 1M lost to traffic fatalities) – EPI claims 70,000 deaths in U.S./yr. from pollution (vs. 40,000 traffic deaths) • 5% of deaths in urban areas are air quality related. • Almost 290,000 premature deaths each year in China, costing $50B and 7% of GDP • Ontario estimates that pollution costs $1B Source: EPI Barriers For New Technologies • • • • • • Lack of money or financing Misplaced incentives Pricing and tax barriers Political obstacles Regulatory and utility barriers Limited supply infrastructure for energy efficient products • Quality problems (new technology doesn’t live up to claims)