Transcript Formato Tipo Presentación Oral

Numerical modeling of air quality:
also a challenge for scientists south
of Río Grande!
Laura Gallardo
Centro de Modelamiento Matemático, Universidad de Chile, UMI
CNRS 2087, Casilla 170-3, Santiago, Chile,
[email protected]
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
Outline
• Air quality: VERY complex
problemS…
• One of many tools: air quality models
• Which is the situation South of Río
Grande?
• What’s next?: A challenge and an
opportunity
“...Andando en un camino encontré al
• Summary
aire, lo saludé y le dije...no sé quién eres,
pero una cosa te pido, no te vendas...”
El libro de las odas, Pablo Neruda
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
A very important (The
most important) air
pollution problem in South America is
associated to the continental scale
biomass burning during the dry season.
With over a hundred of thousands of
fires each year …
MODIS Rapid Response System
08/25/2002 – 14:15UTC
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
Freitas et al, 2004
Affecting far beyond Amazonia
Simulation
23 – 31/ August/ 2002
Aeronet data:
Cordoba and
Buenos Aires
Freitas et al, 2004
LGK Apr'0626
Iguazu
- 29
26 - 29
Also ENORMOUS point sources of
pollutants…again, not only health
issues
Chuquicamata
~106GgS/yr
CDNC
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
Wood et al, VOCALS plan 2005; Huneeus et al, 2006
And impresive and badly characterized
natural sources e.g., volcanic fumarolic
emissions
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
The M-city issue in SCA
M-cities in SCA
> 75% of South
Americans live
in M-cities!!
Credit:
Mayhew & R. Simmon (NASA/GSFC), NOAA/ NGDC,
LGK
Apr'06C.Iguazu
DMSP Digital Archive
Living in M-cities…for some rather
wealthy but not that healthy!
Bogotá
Santiago
•M-cities gather problems
and increase vulnerability
…from health issues to
climate change
São Paulo
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
Often a bad combination of factors and
events/decisions…
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
¡Fértil
provincia!
Santiago del Nuevo Extremo,
Valle central de Chile
2000
1500
Andes Cordillera
Pacific
High/Coastal
Lows
1000
Santiago
500
0
72W
71.5W
71W
70.5W
70W
69.5W
+ 6 M inhabitants and growing
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
60% of Chile’s economic activity
Lousy transportation system
69W
In most cities, environmental
policies are targeted at first
towards diminishing acute
health impacts
•Emission inventories are
compiled
•Monitoring networks are
implemented
•Measures are enforced, i.e.,
point sources are reduced
•Environmental standards or
guidelines are adopted
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
Sao Paulo, Brazil
When the objectives
become more ambitious
(long-term impacts, more
expensive and less
obvious measures, etc.)
•Emission inventories
have to be more accurate
and be used in
combination with models
•Regional monitoring
networks are needed
•Efforts are oriented
towards traffic emissions
and planning
Santiago, Chile
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
Molina & Molina, 2002
A SYSTEMIC APPROACH
IS NEEDED: air quality
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
modeling is one of the many concurring tools…



c
  v.c  c.v - .( c' v' )  Q  S
t
+IC & BC
Lavoisier, 1789
Dispersion and transformations
Emissions
Removal
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu


F ma
E  const
M  const



T   v.c  c.v - .( c' v' ) C  Q  S
Emission inventories
Observations
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
From molecular interactions to planetary
waves...all at once!
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
Are there any models around?...
PLENTY!!!!
• WRF
• MATCH
• BRAMS
• POLYPHEMUS
• UAM-V
• CAMx
• CMAQ
• KAMM
• etc
DMC/POLYPHEMUS
CMM/MATCH/POLY
PHEMUS
DGF/
WRF
USACH/
CAMx
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
PUC/CAM
x
Computers have become affordable
and there are fast connections
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

• Methodologies change
There is information from city to city and even
from year to year within a
In most M-cities
city
where attainement
• Calibration and validation
plans have been
procedures and traditions
differ a lot among cities
developed, there are:
• Data are not always
• Emission inventories
easily accessed
for particulate matter, • The foci in analyses and
sampling is very local
NOx, SOx,CO, HC,
and related to acute
health issues
etc.
• These data are not
• Air quality data for
included in global data
bases
“criteria pollutants”
…But
(CO, O3, NO2, SO2,
• Lack of PEOPLE
and
PM10, etc.)
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
coordination!!!!
What’s next?
Training and building of networks
IGAC workshop Oct 2005 @
Santiago de Chile
– Short and long-term (PhD) training and exchange programs
– Symposia and Conferences
– Connecting with global programs: ESSP…IGBP…IGAC
Developing regional capabilities
– Regional monitoring network and database (GAW/GURME)
– Regional emission network and database (GEIA/AIMES)
– Regional computer center and network (CLARA…)
Finding key questions/problems
–
–
–
–
Biomass burning…pyrocumulus
Megacities…data assimilation
Megasources…aerosol-cloud-climate
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
Etc.
A dear case: South American
Emissions, Megacities and Climate
(SAEMC, 2006-2010)
• To provide accurate regional
emissions and climate
change scenarios for South
America, with emphasis on
the impacts of and on
megacities.
• To establish the basis for
operational chemical weather
forecast for South American
megacities.
• To strengthen and expand an
active research and capacity
building network in the
Americas functional to Earth
System Modeling.
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
• Mobile and Stationary
emissions scenarios estimate
and evaluation
• Dynamical down-scaling of
climate change scenarios
• Pilot implementation of
chemical weather forecast
network and tools for South
American megacities
• Prospective characterization
of aerosols in and downwind
from South American
megacities.
Summary
To take
over
the
world!
•Air quality modeling
capabilities exist and they keep
growing in the region, but there
are few people
•There are growing needs for
AQM applications
•There is an appalling lack of
observations and reliable
emission data
•Regional capabilities must be
developed
•Networking and collaboration
are the
key
steps
forward
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu
See you in Cape Town, September 1723, 2006!!
http://www.atmosphericinterfaces2006.co.za/
LGK Apr'06 Iguazu