Transcript PPT 11.4 MB - global change SysTem for Analysis, Research

People and Places Vulnerable to
Climate Variability and Extremes:
Views from the Watershed
Communities in the Philippines
J. M. Pulhin, R. J. Peras, R. D. Lasco,
RV. O. Cruz, and F. B. Pulhin
ENFOR-CFNR-UPLB
Second AIACC Regional Workshop for Asia and Pacific Islands
Traders Hotel, 3001 Roxas Blvd., Pasay City, Philippines
2-5 November 2004
Outline of Presentation
 Introduction
 Assessment Process
 Key Findings
 Conclusions and Implications
General Framework/Methodology of AS 21
GCM Climate
Scenario
National Climate
Scenario
Land use and cover
Change in the
Watershed
Climate
Variability/
Extremes and
Current Coping
Mechanisms
Current Vulnerability
Assessment
Future
Vulnerability
Assessment
Future Adaptation
Assessment
Impacts on water,
forests and
communities
Objectives of Assessment
 Who are the vulnerable groups in the
communities and what factors contribute
to their vulnerability?
 Where are the vulnerable places located
and why do the local communities
considered them to be vulnerable?
 What implications can be drawn from the
study that can improve current
understanding on vulnerability and
adaptation to future climate change?
Assessment Process
1) Awareness generation among various stakeholders
NPC/NIA Briefing, Pantabangan
DENR Briefing, Philippines
National Orientation, Manila
CLSU Briefing for LGU, Philippines
Assessment Process
2. Gathering secondary information
• Demographic characteristics
• Socio-economic characteristics
• Geographic factors
• Governance structure
3. Field study
Time line analysis
Participatory impact analysis
Participatory mapping of vulnerable groups and places
3. Field study
Identification and analysis of
adaptation strategies
3. Field study
Household interviews
GPS reading of vulnerable
areas
3. Field study
All done by engaging the local stakeholders
4. Data encoding and analysis
5. Presentation and validation of research results
• To validate findings and
engage stakeholders in
adaptation planning
• To generate
interest and support
among various sectors
on climate change
initiatives and strengthen
the research-policy link
Local stakeholders
All done in the
context of learning
by doing cum
capability building
approach
Ido-China scientists
Researchers and officials
from Bhutan
General Site Description
• Pantabangan-Carranglan watershed generally represents a
grassland watershed condition
• Provides water primarily for hydroelectric generation and irrigation
purposes
Pantabangan-Carranglan
Watershed
Summary of General Impacts of
CV&E to Watershed Communities
Areas of
General
concern
Impacts
Food availability
(-)
Crop yield
(+) (-)
Water availability
(+) (-)
Livelihood
(-)
Health
(-)
Infrastructure
(-)
Impacts and Vulnerability of Various
Socioeconomic Groups to CV&E
Groups
Impacts
Better-off
farmers
↓ production &
income; ↔ food,
livelihood, health
↓ production, food,
“Little” farmers
Employees
Businesspersons (smallscale)
livelihood, health;
more debt
↑ price of
commodities
↓ in sales
Degree of Vulnerability
(-) Impacts
Better coping
mechanism - low
vulnerability
Poor coping
mechanism – high
vulnerability
“Average” coping
mechanism –
moderately vul.
“Average” coping
mechanism –
moderately vul.
Adaptation Strategies
Groups
Strategies
Effectiv Recommeneness
dations
Better-off
farmers
Store food and farm
inputs
Effective
“Little”
farmers
“5-6” loan; borrow
from relatives; plant
vegetables along
river/other crops; work
in nearby town; seek
overseas employment;
engage in other jobs
Some
effective;
others
not
Employees
Avail of loan; backyard Effective
project (e.g. piggery)
Businesspersons
(small-scale)
Store food supply and
other farm inputs
Effective
Livelihood project;
estab. factory;
coop development;
financial asstnce;
estab. of Grain
Agency accessible
to the poor
“Price watch” to
regulate prices
LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES IN BRGY.
D.L. MAGLANOC, CARRANGLAN
F.C. OTIC
PROVINCIAL ROAD
MUN. HALL
TO CONVERSION Pantabangan N.E.
RESIDENTIAL
RESIDENTIAL
G.S. ROSARIO
NORT
H
TO SAN JOSE
RESIDENTIAL
SAN VICENTE
RESIDENTIAL
SAN FRANCISCO ST.
RESIDENTIAL
LEGEND :
SAN JOAQUIN
BETTER-OFF FARMERS
SAN BALTAZAR ST.
“SMALL” FARMERS
EMPLOYEES
BUSINESSPERSONS
MALBAN
G CREEK
VULNERABLE AREAS
LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
Low-lying, floodprone settlement
areas
LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
Low-lying, flood-prone
agricultural areas
LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
Dying river
Agricultural land at
the tail-end of
irrigation canal
LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
Highly erodable areas
along riverbanks
LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
Unstable areas that
support infrastructure
LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
Roadsides and other
steep areas prone to
landslides
LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
Areas highly
susceptible to forest
fires
VULNERABILTY MAP BASED
AND BIOPHYSICAL AND
SOCIAL PARAMETERS
\
&
#
CARRANGLAN
\
&
#
#
#
##
##
- LOW
\
&
# ##
\
&
&
\
\
#&
\# # ###&
&
\
#
#
#
#
\ # ##
\&
&
#
- MODERATE
\
&
### #
##
##
.
\
&
- VULNERABLE
SITES (LOCAL
ALFONSO CASTAÑEDA PEOPLE)
\
&
\
&
\
&
#
PANTABANGAN
\
&
\
&
#
# ##
\
&
- HIGH
\
&
### ##
# #
# ##
\
&
#
#
#
# ## #
#
\
&
#
\&&
\
# ##
\
&
#
##
#
###
#
\
\# # &
&
# # # #&
##\ #
\ # # MARIA
&
AURORA
#
#
#
Conclusions and Implications
 Engagement of the stakeholders at the different
stages of the research process
– generates public awareness and interest on the issue
– facilitates identification and potentially, implementation of
adaptation strategies especially at the local level
– Strengthen research-policy interlink
 Poor farmers are more vulnerable to CV&E and
have lesser capacity to adapt due to:
– lack of/limited access to productive base (human, natural,
and manufactured capital)
– past faulty development approach that created sense of
dependency among local communities
– limited/inappropriate policy and institutional mechanism
that provides assistance to the poor
– inequitable social structure
Conclusions and Implications
 Participatory vulnerability assessment
has the following benefits:
– Complements existing assessment
methods like the use of vulnerability index
and GIS application, thereby make the
assessment more robust
– Promotes dialogue with local communities
– Increases the chances of enhancing local
adaptation
Conclusions and Implications
 Looking on the multiple stressors that
contribute to people’s vulnerability is a useful
way of understanding this complex process
 Addressing vulnerability should include
among others, mainstreaming adaptation in
development programs and should aim at
empowering the local communities to
broaden their range of choices of appropriate
strategies rather than making them
dependent on external support.
Our future depends on
reducing vulnerability and
enhancing adaptive
capacity NOW!!!
THANK YOU!!!