Transcript Avoiding dangerous climate change: Emissions pathways

Avoiding dangerous
climate change
Dr Jason Lowe (Met Office)
Dr Rachel Warren (Tyndall Centre)
Dr Simon Buckle (Grantham Institute)
www.avoid.uk.net
AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Sectors and impacts indicators
WATER
water resources
coastal flood
FOOD crop suitability
ENVIRONMENT
soil carbon,
ecosystem productivity
biodiversity
river flood
crop productivity
HEALTH
INFRASTRUCTURE
heat effects heating/cooling needs
Key findings
• Strong mitigation action to limit
temperature rise to below 2°C
avoids many of the climate impacts.
• …but not all the impacts are
avoided. Some adaptation may still
be needed
• The earlier action is taken to reduce
emissions then the more of the 21st
century impacts are avoided.
Strong action to limit to below 2°C avoid a
large amount of the climate impacts that
would otherwise accrue by the 2080s…
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Cooling
requirements
Soybean
productivity
Decreased
crop
suitability
Coastal
mangrove
Coastal flood
risk
Fluvial flood
risk
10
0
Increased
water
scarcity
% of impacts avoided
% of impacts avoided
2016-5-L
AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Strong action to limit to below 2°C avoid a
large amount of the climate impacts that
would otherwise accrue by the 2080s…
…… but even the most stringent
mitigation will not avoid all impacts
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
2016-5-L
Cooling
requirements
Soybean
productivity
Decreased
crop
suitability
Coastal
mangrove
Coastal flood
risk
Fluvial flood
risk
10
0
Increased
water
scarcity
% of impacts avoided
% of impacts avoided
Uncertainty in impacts due to global temperature
projection and spatial pattern of climate change
21st century Increase in water stress
2000.0
1800.0
1600.0
Billions of people
1400.0
1200.0
1000.0
800.0
600.0
400.0
200.0
0.0
BAU
2°C scenario
Avoided impact
Food security: % population at risk of
hunger
-12% today, grows to 60% in 2050
- 21% due to climate change; 1.1 billion people by 2100
- Early action reduces this by 27%
Key findings
• Strong mitigation action to limit
temperature rise to below 2°C
avoids many of the climate impacts.
• …but not all the impacts are
avoided. Some adaptation may still
be needed
• The earlier action is taken to
reduce emissions then the more
of the 21st century impacts are
avoided.
The earlier the peak in emissions, the
greater the avoided impacts
% of impacts avoided
% of impacts avoided
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Cooling
requirements
Soybean
productivity
Decreased
crop
suitability
Coastal
mangrove
Coastal flood
risk
Fluvial flood
risk
Increased
water
scarcity
0
AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
2016-5-L
2030-5-L