Transcript Integration Across Social and Natural Sciences

Integration Across Social and Natural Sciences:
A Social Science Perspective
Matt Berman
EPSCoR All Hands Meeting
May 2009
Integration in EPSCoR Phase III
From the proposal:
"Integration begins with EPSCoR faculty and students in the
individual research components who work together to define the
issues (see research component descriptions) ....“
Tools for integration
• Regional working groups – dynamics
of Alaska social-ecological systems
at the regional scale
• Agent-based modeling -- simulate
hypothetical dynamics of systems at
different scales based on rules for
interacting agents
Integration core pulls component
science together.
How to encourage broader and deeper participation?
• “Sustainability of rural communities" or "resilience of socialecological systems" too vague or too theoretical?
• Challenge: develop specific questions that research projects
could address (through modeling and/or regional integrative
studies)
• Research ideas emerge from bottom up through collaboration of
3 to 5 people from different disciplines.
Proposed Four-Step Process:
1. Start with stylized facts -- empirical observations or model
projections that are generally true.
2. What problem do the stylized facts suggest for science and
society?
3. What specific research questions address the problem?
– Engaging science questions for multiple disciplines
– For social scientists:
• How might local observation and/or intepretation provide
data or insight into environmental change?
• What human activities (private or public decisions)
influence environmental change?
• How will people adapt to environmental change?
4. What scales – time and space – are appropriate to address the
question and bring disciplines together?
Example from Erica Hill
1. Stylized facts: current walrus distribution restricted relative to
historical evidence; humans took primarily females with calves.
2. Research question: Did humans overexploit walrus?
3. Specific questions
-
Did climate variation affect carrying capacity for walrus?
How sensitive is walrus population dynamics to sex and age-specific
mortality?
Is there evidence that a decline in walrus abundance was associated
with emergence of whaling?
4. Time and spatial scales?
1. Time scale: several centuries
2. Spatial scale: Chukchi Sea?
Example 1. Caribou populations increased in the 1980s across the
Arctic, but are now decreasing in most places.
Relative herd sizes
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0.9
0.8
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0.1
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1965
1970
1975
1980
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Nicolson and Russell, unpublished data
2010
Relative herd sizes of world wild Rangifer herds with 3 and 6 year
running averages. Warming climate associated with increasing herds in
1980s and 1990s, but most herds decreasing after 2000.
Example 2. Global Climate Models used to project climate change and
shape global climate policy underestimate the rate of arctic sea ice loss.
Adapted from Stroeve et al., 2007
September Sea Ice Extent: IPCC 4th Assessment Model Runs vs. Observations
Example 3. A new model projection
(Shindell and Faluvegi, 2009)
suggests that black carbon and sulfate
aerosols emitted in the northern
temperate zone may explain half or
more of arctic warming in the past 30
years.
Shindell, D., and G. Faluvegi, 2009: Climate
response to regional radiative forcing during the
twentieth century. Nature Geosci., 2, 294-300.
Example 4. Arctic sea level appears to be rising faster than global
average sea level.
Proshutinsky et al., 2008
Integration Exercise
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Example 1. Caribou populations
increased in the 1980s across the
Arctic, but are now decreasing in
most places.
Example 2. Global Climate Models
used to project climate change and
shape global climate policy
underestimate the rate of arctic sea
ice loss.
Example 3. A new model projection
suggests that black carbon and
sulfate aerosols emitted in the
northern temperate zone may
explain half or more of arctic
warming in the past 30 years.
Example 4. Arctic sea level
appears to be rising faster than
global average sea level.
Start with example stylized fact
• What problem do the stylized
facts suggest for science and
society?
• What specific research
questions address the problem?
– Questions across disciplines
– Social question
• How might local observation
and/or intepretation provide
data or insight into
environmental change?
• What human activities (private
or public decisions) influence
environmental change?
• How will people adapt to
environmental change?
•
What time and space scales
address the question and bring
disciplines together?