Transcript Climate change and energy security

Climate change and energy security
BIICL Annual Conference 2010
11th June 2010
Professor Julia King CBE FREng
Aston University Birmingham
Member of the Committee on Climate Change
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Climate change: why are we worried?
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Global and national targets
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UK – energy use and climate change
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Energy security and climate change mitigation
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Conclusions
The impacts of climate change
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Business as usual: a high probability of global average
temperature rise in excess of 4o, possibly as early as 2060
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Europe 8o warmer,12o on hottest day
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North America 10 – 12o warmer: Toronto, Chicago, New York,
Washington DC
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Maize and wheat yields reduced by up to 40% at low latitudes
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Rice yields down 30% in China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia
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By 2080 40% of the world’s population has less than 1000 litres
of water per year that’s just 3 litres a day or a bath a month
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20 - 30% plant and animal species at high risk of extinction
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Sustained global temperature increase of 2o: 20 – 40% decline
in rainforest
BAU: land with decreased crop suitability in 2100
Met Office 2009
Or…security implications of climate change
Migration and
refugees
Rise in extremism in
badly affected areas
Public health
Climate
change
International
relations
Public
discontent/
disorder
Failure of critical
infrastructure
Energy security
Strategic
products and
technologies
Communications
and transport
Uninsurable
risks
The impacts of climate change
Source: IPCC
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Climate change: why are we worried?
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Global and national targets
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UK – energy use and climate change
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Energy security and climate change mitigation
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Conclusions
Required global emissions reduction
Why?
• Advances in science
• Actual emissions higher
than forecast
Assessment of damage
Decision rule:
• keep temperature
change close to 2°C
and probability of 4°C
increase at very low
levels
Global trajectories
considered
• Early or later peak
(2015 vs. 2030)
• 3%/4% annual
emissions reduction
•
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Required global
emissions reduction
of 50%
20-24 GtCO2e
emissions in 2050
8-10 GtCO2e in
2100
Appropriate developed country/UK contribution
50% global reduction
Burden share
• Alternative methodologies (contract and
converge, intensity convergence, triptych
etc.)
• Equal per capita emissions:
̶
20-24 GtCO2e global total in 2050
̶
implies 2.1-2.6 tCO2e per capita
All GHGs
2.1-2.6 CO2e per
capita gives a UK
reduction of at least
80% by 2050
Aviation and
shipping included
So what does that mean?
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In 2050 total CO2e per head needs to be
2.1 – 2.6 tonnes per annum
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A return flight to Los Angeles for 1 person
2.5 tonnes
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An average new car today (160g/km), driven
15,000km per year, emits
2.4 tonnes per annum
Global CO2 emissions
Source: WRI (2006)
Global CO2 emissions
Energy
emissions
Source: WRI (2006)
How do we deal with global issues?
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Copenhagen, December 2009
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120 Heads of State
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Agreement to keep below 2o
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No binding global agreement to reduce emissions
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But individual country targets
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now received from over 100 countries
Potential to deliver 50% global reduction
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Climate change: why are we worried?
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Global and national targets
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UK – energy use and emissions
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Energy security and climate change mitigation
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Conclusions
The scale of the UK CO2 challenge
679 Mt CO2e
International aviation
& international shipping*
42
UK non-CO2 GHGs
94
Other CO2
Industrial CO2 (heat &
industrial processes)
109
Residential, public &
commercial heat
97
Domestic transport
135
Electricity generation
* bunker f uels basis
76% cut
(= 80% vs. 1990)
Energy
emissions
159 Mt CO2e
178
2007 emissions
Committee on Climate Change October 2009
2050 objective
Meeting required reductions
Reducing power sector emissions:
Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS
Application of
power to transport
and heat
Reducing transport emissions:
• Fuel efficiency
• Electric/plug-in hybrids
• Bio fuels (first vs. second
generation)
Reducing heat emissions:
• Energy efficiency
• Lifestyle change
• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,
storage heating)
• Biomass boilers
• CCS in industry
Power sector decarbonisation
Emissions intensity to 2050
Power generation to 2050
600
TWh electricity generation per year
600
g/CO2 per kWh
500
500
400
300
400
200
300
100
200
2000
0
2006
2010
2020
2030
2050
90% path
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
UK electricity installed capacity
DECC 2009
UK electricity generation 1996 - 2008
DECC 2009
Capacity and generating mix 2008 & 2020
Generating capacity
By 2020:
Extra 23GW wind: 27GW total
3 new nuclear plants
CCS demonstration plants
Generating mix
CCC 2009
UK emissions 2006
695 Mt CO2e
International aviation
& shipping*
42
UK non-CO2 GHGs
98
Other CO2
Oil
Non-energy
emissions
Industry (heat &
industrial processes)
108
Oil, Gas, Coal,
Electricity, Renewables
Residential &
Commercial heat
103
Oil, Gas, Coal,
Electricity, Renewables
Domestic transport
134
184
Electricity Generation
2006 emissions
* bunker fuels basis
Oil,
Renewables
Gas, Coal,
Nuclear,
Renewables
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Climate change: why are we worried?
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Global and national targets
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UK – energy use and climate change
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Energy security and climate change mitigation
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Conclusions
Energy security
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Physical security: avoiding involuntary
interruptions to supply
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Price security: avoiding spikes and providing
energy at reasonable prices to consumers
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Geopolitical security: ensuring the UK retains
independence in foreign policy by avoiding
dependence for energy on particular nations
DECC EMO 2008
Primary energy supply in the UK
Global energy supplies
DECC
Energy Indicators
UK energy supply
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2007 net importer – 20% of energy supply
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Crude oil: net imports of 7.5% of consumption
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Gas: 21% imported
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Coal: 72% imported
2025 increasing levels of imports:
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Crude oil: 61% imported
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Gas: 63% imported
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Coal: predictions less clear
2050 continuing upward trend in % imported
Where will our energy come from?
By 2030 world energy demand will be up by 45%
Fossil fuels sourced from less stable areas of the world
IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
Some key import routes and suppliers for the future
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Oil and Gas
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Strait of Hormuz
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Suez Canal
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….
Gas
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Russia
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Turkey
Coal
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Russia
Fossil fuel dependency → increasing energy insecurity
Capacity and generating mix 2008 & 2020
Generating capacity
By 2020:
Extra 23GW wind: 27GW total
3 new nuclear plants
CCS demonstration plants
Generating mix
CCC 2009
Meeting required reductions
Reducing power sector emissions:
Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS
Application of
power to transport
and heat
Reducing transport emissions:
• Fuel efficiency
• Electric/plug-in hybrids
• Bio fuels (first vs. second
generation)
Reducing heat emissions:
• Energy efficiency
• Lifestyle change
• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,
storage heating)
• Biomass boilers
• CCS in industry
More radical renewables and nuclear
strategies are feasible
High feasible scenario for operational wind: 39% of generation
Severn barrage 8.6MW: 10% of generation
………..
CCC 2009
Existing low carbon electricity markets
CCC 2009
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Climate change: why are we worried?
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Global and national targets
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UK – energy use and climate change
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Energy security and climate change mitigation
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Conclusions
Conclusions
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Fossil fuel dependency → increasing energy
insecurity and increased global insecurity and
instability
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Climate change mitigation → increasing energy
security and global stability
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Security, energy security, climate change impacts
and climate change mitigation are closely linked
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Joined-up thinking and planning are required to
ensure we address them together
UK path to an 80% or more reduction in 2050
Wind and nuclear
Other renewable
and CCS
Energy efficiency
improvement
Renewable heat
Electric heat
Electric cars/plug in
hybrids
2008
2020
2050
1-2% of GDP
in 2050