Transcript Climate Change

Understanding Climate Change,
It’s Impact and corrective
measures
3/12/09
Presentation flow
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What is climate change - CC
Global impact
Impact on India
Measures to curb CC
Mirchi position and actionables
Key definitions
Summary of COPs
What is Climate Change
• It is a change in the statistical distribution
of weather over periods of time that range
from decades to millions of years.
• Simply put - It refers to the change in
modern climate
• Currently the gravest climate change is
increasing GLOBAL WARMING
Indicators of climate change
• Glaciers – thickness and expanse varies with
CC
• Vegetation - type, distribution and coverage
varies with CC.
• Ice cores - The air trapped in bubbles in the ice can
also reveal the CO2 variations of the atmosphere
• Pollen Analysis – change in texture with change in
climate
• Insects – mutations to adapt to climate changes
• Sea level changes – the most obvious of them all
Very obvious in fact ….Aral Sea
68,000 Sq Kms
28,000 Sq Kms
17,000 Sq Kms
North Pole is shrinking…
• The North Pole is melting for the first
time in 55 mn yrs.
• The Ice cap is shrinking @ 6% per
yr.
The melting ice is causing an increase in
sea levels
• Bangladesh is drowning
• A million people get displaced each year due to increasing sea
levels
• If not checked , it is predicted that the 1 meter increase in sea level
will inundate 15% of the country and displace 13 mn people
• EU is at risk
• 14% of the pop stays on the coastline stays within 500 mts of the
sealine
• Economic assets worth Euro 1000 Bn
• Annual expenditure to protect infrastructure and human capital –
Euro 3.2 Bn
• Australia
• It is predicted that 1 mt increase in vertical sea level will cause the
sea coast to recede by 100 mts
• 85% of pop lives within a hrs drive from the coast
Reasons to worry
• 12 of the 13 warmest yrs on
record occurred since 1995
• 500 hrs lesser sunshine in
North China compared to 50
yrs ago
• 12% increase in Glacier
speeds due to accelerated
melting
• Sea level has increased 50
mm since 1992
• Ozone hole is 8.5 mn square
miles now
• Global snow cover has
shrunk by 10% since the
1960s
Reasons to worry
• Rainfall has increased by 510% over the 20th century in
the Northern Hemisphere,
but has decreased in North
and West Africa and parts of
the Mediterranean.
• The North Pole sea-ice has
thinned by 40% in recent
decades in summer and
autumn, and decreased in
extent by 10-15% since the
1950s in spring and summer.
• The Northern Hemisphere
has seen earlier plant
flowering, earlier bird arrival
and earlier emergence of
insects
Should India be worried too?
• 7500 kms of densely populated and low
lying coastline
• Economy very dependent on natural
resource base , thus cannot afford
negative environment change
• Has many mountain ranges, rivers and
long coastline – all of which can spell
disaster if disturbed
The damage has already started
• Himalayan glaciers are shrinking at 10-15 mts per yr.
• A 10-year study in and around the Bay of Bengal points
to the sea rising 3.14 mm a year in the mangrove
swamps of the Sunderbans delta against a global
average of 2 mm, threatening the low-lying area which is
home to about 4 million people.
• A trend of sea level rise of 1 cm per decade has been
recorded along the Indian coast. The major delta area of
the Ganga, Brahmaputra and Indus rivers, which have
large populations reliant on river resources, will be
affected by changes in water regimes, salt water
intrusions and land loss.
The damage has already started
• Extreme temperatures
and heat spells have
already become
common over Northern
India, often causing loss
of human life
And it will get worse.. By 2050…
• Glaciers
– Ganges expected to lose 2/3rd of its July-Sept flow
– 1/3rd of India’s irrigated land would be impacted
– 500 mn people would face water shortage
• Temperature
– Mean winter temp is expected to increase by 3.5 degrees and
summer temp by 2.2 degrees
– Higher temperatures also mean faster melting of Himalayan
glaciers and as the melting season coincides with the monsoon
season, any intensification of the monsoon is likely to contribute
to flood disasters in the Himalayan catchment
• Rainfall
– Sharp decline in summer ( which forms 70% of the total) rainfall
– Winter monsoon expected to reduce by 10-20%
And it will get worse.. By 2050…
• Sea level- expected to increase by 50 cms
• Agriculture
– It will be adversely affected not only by increase/decrease of
temp but also by shifts in the timing. Higher temperatures reduce
the total duration of a crop cycle, leading to a lower yield per unit
area
• Health
– Increased temperatures can increase the range of vector-borne
diseases such as malaria, particularly in regions where minimum
temperatures currently limited the spread of such diseases
So what is being done?
In 1992,nations finally admitted that
there indeed is a problem !!
United Nation Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC)
• International environmental treaty produced at the Earth
Summit held in Rio in 1992
• Objective - To stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations
in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous interference with the climate system
• Does not have any mandatory limits on greenhouse gas
emissions for individual countries and contains no
enforcement mechanisms.
• The treaty was legally non-binding
• The treaty however provides for updates (called
"protocols") that would set mandatory emission limits.
• It entered into force on March 21, 1994. As at October
2009, UNFCCC had 192 parties – INDIA is part of this
treaty
Driving principal – “Common but
differentiated responsibility”
• Evolved from the notion of the ‘common heritage of
mankind’ and therefore the need to protect it
• Recognizes differences between developed and
developing States
– In the contributions to global environmental problems
– Differences in their respective economic and technical capacity
to tackle these problems
• The Framework Convention on Climate Change states “Parties should act to protect the climate system on the
basis of equality and in accordance with their common
but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities.”
Conferences of the Parties (COP)
• The UNFCCC along with the Intergovernmental
panel on Climate change (IPCC), aims to gain
consensus through meetings and the discussion
with various stakeholders
• The parties to the convention have met annually
from 1995 in Conferences of the Parties (COP)
to assess progress in dealing with climate
change.
Conferences of the Parties (COP)
• 1995 - COP 1 – Berlin 1995
– Voiced the concerns about the adequacy of countries'
abilities to meet commitments under the Convention.
– Berlin mandate was issued , which established a 2year Analytical and Assessment Phase (AAP), to
negotiate a comprehensive menu of actions for
countries
• 1996 - COP 2, Geneva, Switzerland
– Acceptance of the scientific findings on climate change made by
the Intergovernmental panel on Climate change (IPCC)
– Rejected uniform "harmonized policies" in favor of flexibility
– Called for legally binding mid-term targets.
1997 - COP 3, The Kyoto Protocol
- A key milestone
– For the first time a legally binding limit based treaty was signed
• Most industrialized nations and some central European economies
in transition agreed to legally binding reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions of an average of 6 to 8% below 1990 levels between the
years 2008-2012 and 90% below 1990 levels by 2050
• While 187 countries signed the protocol. 37 industrialized countries
committed themselves to a reduction of greenhouse gases
• They agreed to reduce their collective greenhouse gas emissions
by 5.2% from the 1990 level.
– The Protocol allowed for several “flexible mechanisms”, such as
emissions trading , the clean development mechanism (CDM)
and joint implementation to allow developed countries to meet
their GHG emission limitations by purchasing GHG emission
reductions credits from elsewhere, through financial exchanges,
projects that reduce emissions in non-Annex I countries, from
other Annex I countries, or from annex I countries with excess
allowances.
The Kyoto Protocol
• The United States
which in 1990’s
contributed to 36%
of all emmsions did
not sign the Kyoto
protocol
Conferences of the Parties (COP)
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1998 - COP 4, Buenos Aires
– Finalization of unresolved issues in Kyoto
– Agreement not achieved - adoption of a 2-year "Plan of Action"
to devise mechanisms for implementing the Kyoto Protocol,
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1999 - COP 5, Bonn, Germany
– It was primarily a technical meeting, and did not reach major
conclusions.
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2000 - COP 6, The Hague, Netherlands
– Introduction of the controversial proposal to allow credit for
carbon "sinks" in forests and agricultural lands, satisfying a
major proportion of the U.S. emissions reductions.
– Disagreements over consequences for non-compliance by
countries
– No resolution on how developing countries could obtain financial
assistance to deal with adverse effects of climate change and
meet their obligations to the plan
Conferences of the Parties (COP)
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2001 - COP 6, Bonn, Germany
– Some key aggrements were reached:
– Flexible Mechanisms: Measures like emissions trading; Joint implementation
and Clean development mechanism were approved
– No quantitative limit on the credit a country could claim from use of these
mechanisms
– Carbon Sinks : Credit was agreed to for broad activities that absorb carbon from
the atmosphere or store it, including forest and cropland management, and revegetation, with no over-all cap on the amount of credit that a country could claim
for sinks activities
– Financing: Three new funds were agreed upon to provide assistance for needs
associated with climate change; a fund for climate change that supports a series
of climate measures; a least-developed-country fund to support National
Adaptation Programs of Action; and a Kyoto Protocol adaptation fund supported
by a CDM levy and voluntary contributions.
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2001 - COP 7, Marrakech, Morocco- The main decisions at COP 7 included:
– Operational rules for international emission trading among parties were
established
– Consequences for failure to meet emissions targets established
– Accounting procedures for the flexibility mechanisms established
Conferences of the Parties (COP)
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2002 - COP 8, New Delhi, India
2003 - COP 9, Milan, Italy
2004 - COP 10, Buenos Aires, Argentina
2005 - COP 11/MOP 1, Montreal, Canada
– It was one of the largest intergovernmental conferences on climate
change ever. The event marked the entry into force of the Kyoto
Protocol.
– Agreement hammered out at the end of the conference to "extend the
life of the Kyoto Protocol beyond its 2012 expiration date and negotiate
deeper cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions."
Conferences of the Parties (COP)
• 2006 - COP 12/MOP 2, Nairobi, Kenya
• 2007 - COP 13/MOP 3, Bali, Indonesia
– Agreement on a timeline and structured negotiation on the post
2012 framework (a successor to the Kyoto Protocol) was
achieved with the adoption of the Bali Action Plan
– The Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action
was established as a new subsidiary body to conduct the
negotiations aimed at urgently enhancing the implementation of
the Convention now, up to and beyond 2012.
– These negotiations will take place during 2008 (leading to COP
14/MOP 4 in Poznan, Poland) and 2009 (leading to COP
15/MOP 5 in Copenhagen).
Conferences of the Parties (COP)
• 2008 - COP 14/MOP 4, Poznań, Poland
• Delegates agreed on principles of financing for a
fund to help the poorest nations cope with the
effects of climate change.
• They also approved a mechanism to incorporate
forest protection into efforts
2009 - COP 15/MOP 5, Copenhagen,
Denmark
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The overall goal in Denmark is to
establish an ambitious global climate
agreement for the period from 2012
when the first commitment period
under the Kyoto protocol expires.
President Obama and other world
leaders have decided to put off the
difficult task of reaching a climate
change agreement in this COP.
Focus on reaching a less specific
“politically binding” agreement that
would punt the most difficult issues
into the future
This “alternative” agreement being
suggested by the developed world
would require all nations to make
their own commitments – as they
deem appropriate
These committements would be
collected in one document and would
go through more negotiations before
becoming legally binding
Implications of these changes
• The burial of legally binding commitments by
developed nations would endanger the entire
process of guaranteeing emissions reductions
where they matter most.
• The developing countries in need of financial
assistance and technology would be held to their
commitments, even beyond specific projectlinked assistance. This would effectively shift the
burden of legally binding commitments to the
developing countries.
India's stance at Copenhagen
• Preservation of the integrity of UNFCCC and Kyoto
protocol
• The developed countries need to take the lead with
specific quantitative commitments for emissions
reductions (without carbon offsets) consistent with the
recommendations of the IPCC
• Developed countries outside the Kyoto Protocol need to
be brought into the ambit of similar commitments by
suitable means
• All nations have a right to the economic and social
institutions of their choice to combat global warming.
Should not be bound by specific technologies/finance
mechanisms etc.
• Technology transfer needs to be led by state-level
interventions and green technologies need to be treated
as global public goods. Finance must also be primarily
routed through multilateral institutions under the aegis of
the UNFCCC
Different worlds – different views
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Developed world countries
– USA which remains the largest
emission country is yet to come
on board
– While rejecting the Kyoto Protocol,
effectively set itself against the
principle of “common but
differentiated responsibilities” by
insisting that it would sign no
emission reduction commitment
unless the major developing
economies were on board
– Japan is campaigning to scrap the
Kyoto protocol itself
– South Korea, Canada and
Australia also share similar views
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Developing world countries
– Depends on the developed world
for technology and finance –
wants this to continue
– Wants developed world to fulfill
obligations first
Mirchis’ stance – some questions
• What will be our take on CC
• How do we communicate the same in a
language that the average listener
understands
• Tactical or long term impetus on the
subject from a programming standpoint
• Creating awareness or generating change
Key definitions
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Flexible mechanisms
Emissions trading ,
Clean development mechanism (CDM)
Joint implementation
Carbon sinks
Summary of key COPs
Thanks