Transcript Find some land, build a house?

Date: 5-Apr-16
Unit 1 Global Challenges
Uncertainties predicting
Climate Change and impacts
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Unit 1 Global Challenges
http://www.stopglobalwarming.com.au/global_warming_future_impacts_policy.html
Date: 5-Apr-16
Unit 1 Global Challenges
Enquiry Question Spec
What are the impacts of climate change and why should we be concerned?
The impacts of climate change are difficult to predict and emission scenarios,
such as the IPCC model may vary from “business as usual” to sustainable
and could be affected by attempts to manage the impacts of climate change.
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Unit 1 Global Challenges
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Unit 1 Global Challenges
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Unit 1 Global Challenges
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Unit 1 Global Challenges
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Unit 1 Global Challenges
Carbon Sinks
A carbon sink is a natural or manmade reservoir that accumulates and stores some carbon-containing chemical
compound for an indefinite period.
The main natural sinks are:
Absorption of carbon dioxide by the oceans
•Photosynthesis by plants and algae
The main manmade sinks are:
•Landfills
•Carbon capture and storage proposals
The process by which carbon sinks remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is known
as CO2 sequestration or carbon sequestration. Public awareness of the significance of CO2 sinks has grown since
passage of the Kyoto Protocol, which promotes their use as a form of carbon offset.
Kyoto Protocol
Because growing vegetation absorbs carbon dioxide, the Kyoto Protocol allows countries with large areas of
forest (or other vegetation) to deduct a certain amount from their emissions, thus making it easier for them to
achieve the desired net emission levels.
Some countries seek to trade emission rights in carbon emission markets, purchasing the unused carbon
emission allowances of other countries.
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Unit 1 Global Challenges
Agenda 21
This is a programme run by the United Nations (UN) related to sustainable development. It is a
comprehensive blueprint of action to be taken globally, nationally and locally by organizations of the
UN, governments, and major groups in every area in which humans impact on the environment.
Section I: Social and Economic Dimensions
Includes combating poverty, changing consumption patterns, population and demographic dynamics,
promoting health, promoting sustainable settlement patterns and integrating environment and
development into decision-making.
Section II: Conservation and Management of Resources for Development
Includes atmospheric protection, combating deforestation, protecting fragile environments,
conservation of biological diversity (biodiversity), and control of pollution.
Section III: Strengthening the Role of Major Groups
Includes the roles of children and youth, women, NGOs, local authorities, business and workers.
Section IV: Means of Implementation
Includes science, technology transfer, education, international institutions and mechanisms and
financial mechanisms.
Local Agenda 21
The implementation of Agenda 21 was intended to involve action at international, national, regional
and local levels. Some national and state governments have legislated or advised that local
authorities take steps to implement the plan locally.
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Unit 1 Global Challenges
http://www.ipcc.ch/
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Unit 1 Global Challenges
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Formed 1988 – World Meteorological Organisation & United Nations Environment
Programme.
Collected evidence during the 1990s which showed global warming is really
happening. To do this it
•Collected data about the atmosphere
•Observed sea levels and the extent of the ice at poles and at glaciers in
mountain regions.
•Measured greenhouse gas concentration (e.g. CO2)
•Used super-computers to try and predict what impacts global warming
might have.
Using its data, the IPCC has attempted to predict possibilities or scenarios regarding
greenhouse gas emissions. Each is uncertain but helps to predict the future by
considering how the governments might act.
•A1 Scenario
•A2 Scenario
•B1 Scenario
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»
»
IS92a – business as usual
p 50-51 Pearson
Emission scenarios
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Unit 1 Global Challenges
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Unit 1 Global Challenges
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Unit 1 Global Challenges
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Unit 1 Global Challenges
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A2 Scenario Example
Absolute change in mean annual temperature between control period 1961-1990 and 2071-2100,
under the IPCC SRES scenario A2. Data from EC-funded project Prudence (HadCM3 global
circulation model, and HIRHAM regional climate model in 12km resolution), map elaboration by EC
JRC/IES.
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GIS at local
scale
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Lectures
Slides
Webcasts
http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/climatechange/multimedia.jsp
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Unit 1 Global Challenges
Why the uncertainty?
Predictions of emissions levels and their impacts are difficult, because its is hard to
predict the following:
•The level and nature of economic devlopment, particularly in countries like India
and China, which will determine greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
•What degree of international action will be taken to reduce emissions
•The inertia in the system – even if GHG emissions stabilise , climate change will
continue
•The impact of positive feedback, for example as permafrost areas thaw due to
global warming the powerful GHG methane will be releases, increasing global
warming still further
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• Read p 59-63….
Is the world more hazardous?
Unit 1 Global Challenges