Transcript Mitigation and Shared Vision—Review of the Science and Stakes in

Mitigation and Shared Vision—Review of the Science and Stakes in
the Climate Negotiations
Workshop of the Lead Coordinators of the African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change
UNCC/UNECA Addis Ababa 13 to 15 August 2012
Mariama Williams
Global Governance for Development Programme
South Centre
Geneva, Switzerland
All statements are personal to the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the
official position of the South Centre or its Member States.
Updated: 23/01/08
Outline- Shared Vision & Mitigation
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Africa: Situation & Context vis-à-vis CC
Shared Vision & Mitigation state of play :
Long-term global reductions goal
Peaking Year
Equitable Access to sustainable development
and Africa
Observations
Mitigation State of Play
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According to Hansen and others:
Earth is out of energy balance
Global warming is somewhere between 0.70.8C
More warming in the pipeline
Highly intensive carbon intensive sources can
push climate science beyond tipping point
Since IPCC AR 4: evidence of urgency
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Summer sea ice cover in the artic is
decreasing (2007 and 2001) to an area 40%
less than a few decades earlier
Artic sea ice thickness reduce (faster than
IPCC climate model predicted)
The Greenland and Antarctic ice –shedding
ice at a rate now several hundred cubic Kilo a
year. Mountain glaciers are receding rapidly
all around the world fresh water availability
of major rivers
Projected regional impacts in developing country regions (IPCC AR4, 2007)
Africa and climate change
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With current 0.74 C of warming, Africa:
Severe rain
Progressive drying of soils
Threats to food production
Increase in sea surface temperature->Sahel
drought (1980s) & drought in Horn of Africa
(2000s)
Africa and climate change
With increase warming ( 1.5C) by 2050:
Average production losses in African maize,
22%
Yield losses in other crops: sorghum (17%),
millet (17%), groundnut (17%) and cassava
(8%)
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Emission reduction is needed to
restore earth energy balance
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Science calls for: 350 PPM ( 450 ppm CO2eq
represents upper limit on concentration of
heat-trapping emissions.) Temp. 1, 1.5-2C
A 6%/year decrease of fossil fuel emission
(2013); 15% (2020)
About 100 GT reforestation
Clean energy
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Within the context of UNFCCC the need for
reducing global emissions has been
recognized… The convention argues for the
stabilization of the climate system
Shared Vision
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Article 2
The Ultimate Objective…is to achieve, in accordance with
the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a
level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system. Such a level
should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to
ensure that food production is not threatened and to
enable economic development to proceed in a
sustainable manner.
Shared Vision…
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The Bali Action Plan
1. (a) A shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a longterm global goal for emission reductions, to achieve the ultimate
objective of the Convention…
1 (b) (i) Measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate
mitigation commitments or actions, including quantified emission
limitation and reduction objectives, by all developed country Parties,
while ensuring the comparability of efforts among them…
1 (b) (ii) Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country
Parties in the context of sustainable development, supported and
enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, in a
measurable, reportable and verifiable manner;
(shared vision with CBDR,RC, equity, historical responsibiliteis)
Cancun & Durban
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2 degree C: limiting average global temp
blow 2C above pre-industrial level (review
2013-2015).
Work towards global goal for substantially
reducing emissions
Global emissions or carbon budget (the
overall amount of carbon that can be
released into the atmosphere…
(1CP.16 para 5 & 6)
SHARED VISION
Long term emissions reductions goal
 Peaking year
Context:
Mitigation I(b)(i); 1 (b) (ii)
Adaptation
Finance $30b/$100b -2020/???
Technology transfer (modalities and targets)
Capacity building
 EASD
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Share vision cont
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global long term emissions reductions
goal/equitable burden sharing based on
Historical emissions
In near future Africa will be developing more
rapidly emitting more so implication of Shared
vision is important for Africa—mitigation (low
carbon-methane, finance (now for adaptation,
TT and Capacity building).
Capacity building important for Africa
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The equity approach has implications for the
various topics under LCA.
Of the cumulative global emissions Annex I
countries accounted for 72% of the total
compared to their share of population of
about 25%. Developing countries accounted
28% of the total. The overutilization by Annex
I was 568 Gt, the same as the underutilisation by developing countries.
Long term global reduction goals
Long term global emission reduction goal:
a) temperature, 1,1.5, 2 degree C
b) Concentration (ppm)--(2 degree consistent
with 400-450 ppm)
c) Lt.Global Emission Reduction Goal (1990,
2050)
d) Aggregate Lt. ER G for Annex I (1990, 2050)
Lt Global Emission reductions goal by 2050*
At least 50% from 1990 levels
50% from 1990 levels
85% from 1990 levels (AOSIS)
95 % from 1990 levels (Africa)
More than 100% from 1990 levels (Boliva et al)
*draft shared vision in
FCCC/AWGLCA/2010/Inf. 29 Oct.2010
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Aggregate Lt. Emissions reduction goal by
2050 for Annex I parties
75-85% from 1990 levels
Around 80% from 1990 levels
80% from 1990 levels (EU)
At least 80-95% from 1990 levels (AOSIS)
More than 95% from 1990 levels (Africa)
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4/5/2016
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4/5/2016
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4/5/2016
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Global Peaking Year
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Global peaking year should also be
discussed in the context of equity and to
be preceded by a paradigm for the equitable
sharing of the atmospheric space or
resource. Like the global goals for
temperature and emissions reduction, global
peaking year have implications for the
responsibilities of developing countries or for
their options in their emissions and thus their
economic pathways.
Three global paths
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Peak in 2020
Peak in 2017
50
Peak in 2015
historical emissions
Global emissions (GtCO2eq/yr)
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30
20
10
0
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
non-Annex 1 paths for three Annex 1 reduction levels
(for 2015 global peak)
Required non-Annex 1 path for three different Annex 1 levels of
reductions
(for a Global Path that Peaks in 2015)
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-40% by 2020
Cancun (lower)
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Cancun (higher)
BAU (higher)
BAU (lower)
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25
15
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-5
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Observations
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As can be expected, the required mitigation
in non-Annex1 a countries is greater:
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if the global path peaks earlier.
If Annex 1 reductions are less ambitious.
Conclusions
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Maintaining a reasonable chance of keeping
warming below 2°C requires rapid global
reductions.
If peaking is not well before 2020, warming will
not be “likely” to remain below 2°C.
Weak mitigation in Annex 1 countries will imply
dramatic reductions in non-Annex 1 countries,
for any of these global pathways.
Ambitious mitigation in Annex 1 countries (i.e., 40% by 2020) will also imply less dramatic
reductions (by ~5 GtCO2eq in 2020)
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Conclusion shared vision
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Shift from developed countries effort to
developing countires. This will keep
developing countries poor.
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So shared vision boils down to a political
discussion it is not simply a scientific
numbers only decision. So cannot have the
numbers until you have a clear understanding
of: Finance, technolgy and capacity building
deliverables in the context of CBDR and
Equity
Bottom line on Shared Vision
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Options: give figure say 50% by 2050 and no
context
Give figure and context: AI peaking, $
finance, tech for NAI.
So ultimately there are at least 5 numbers
that must be taken account of not simply 2-3,
as advocate by developed parties:
Global cut, say 50% by 2050
X cut for AI, 80-100%
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Implied residual cut for NAI
How much finance and technology for NAI
Possible seven figure:
Equitable Access to sustainable
development & Africa
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In the final analysis shared visions is
ultimately about how do you burden sharing
of the remaining carbon space?
Hence the context for the numbers is the
entire BAP and the convention.
EASD
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Since Tanjin, the Africa group has been
projecting this strategy. Calling for clear ideas
about adaptation, finance, TT (beyond what
is now in the tech mechanisms; targets);
capacity building in addition to overall
mitigation approach . All of these things
impacts how development takes place now
and into the future.
Since Cancun focus on equitable access to
sustainable development
EASD
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EASD is how to divide up the remaining
atmospheric space (how do you divide up the
Long term emissions reducion goal and the
peaking year issues between AI and NAI
(Implies: Carbon budget)
EASD is an integrated approach form long
term emission.
… The balance in the UNFCCC …
Common
commitments
All countries
Mitigation (voluntary
for developing
countries)
Information provision
and exchange
Cooperation in
technology transfer,
R&D, adaptation,
education and training,
GHG sink and
reservoir conservation
and management
4/5/2016
Differentiated
commitments
Balance of commitments
Developed countries
Common
commitments
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Respective
capabilities
Intra- and intergenerational equity
Sustainable development, in
particular of developing countries,
within an enabling international
economic system
Mitigation (mandatory)
Financing UNFCCC
implementation
Financing adaptation
Technology transfer
Provide detailed
information
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Meeting the E-D-E imperatives
Equity and Sustainable Development in the Context of Climate Change
Emission reductions
Finance and Technology
Global carbon budget (2010-2050)
Annex I carbon share
 Developed
countries to take the
lead in cutting
emissions
(existing UNFCCC
obligation)
Non-Annex I carbon share
Global
temperature
increase
Regional
temperature
increase
 Bending emissions
growth downward while
keeping economic growth
curve upward
Mitigation costs
and actions in
developing
countries in
context of
sustainable
development
Finance
Technology
4/5/2016
GHG
concentrations in the
atmosphere
Adaptation
Developed countries
provide finance,
technology transfer to
developing countries
to support mitigation
and adaptation
actions in context of
sustainable
development
(existing UNFCCC
obligations)
Finance
Adaptation
impacts, costs
and actions in
developing
countries in
context of
sustainable
development
Technology
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EASD
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Issue: numbers first or Context first?
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Partners and some developing countries
want to set LTGoal and peak year before all
the others are decided (offering the GCF,
TM/TEC ).
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The Africa group and many other developing
countries, including the BASICs would like to
see clear understanding and agreement of all
aspects, including targts, operationalization in
the framework of EASD.
Important link between GNP and emission so
decoupling have strong implication for
development
TT must go beyond trading arrangmetn to
skills building and absorbitve capacity and
development.
Let’s be clear …
The climate negotiations are not an environmental negotiations. These are
essentially negotiations over the development future of developing countries;
over how global economic relationships and national economic futures will be
shaped as a result of addressing and adapting to the inevitable impacts of
climate change
Our countries’ industrialization and development future are at stake.
Africa has a significant role to play in highlighting the economic, trade and
development implications of the possible results from the climate change
negotiations
4/5/2016
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Thank you
Mariama Williams
[email protected]
www.southcentre.org
Tel: +41 22 791 80 50
Fax: +41 22 798 85 31
17-19 Chemin du Champ d'Anier
1209 Petit Saconnex, Geneva