Transcript 091_3000_Glantz_powe..

Climate change, extreme
events, social impacts, social
change, ethics & equity
Michael H. Glantz
CU Consortium for Capacity Building
22 January 2009
IAFS 3000
High impact events
are a problem worldwide
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Every part of the globe is affected by….
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Frequencies and impacts vary
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a high impact weather event
a climate anomaly
 Death, destruction and misery from either
From location to location
For same type event but at different times
Impacts are regional/local
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Second-order effects are national
Why an interest in extreme events?
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Societies are worried about extremes not
averages
Climate scientists measure climate and
weather extremes in terms of quantifiable
variables and probabilistic forecasts
The public and policy makers measure
extremes in terms of impacts on
environment and on society
Some Climate change findings
IPCC WG II takes the following key findings of WG I as its starting point:
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The globally averaged surface temperatures have increased by 0.6 +/0.2 degrees Celsius over the 20th century.
For the range of scenarios developed for IPCC assessment (assuming
no major reduction in greenhouse gas emissions), climate models
project the Earth to warm 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius between 1990 and
2100.
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Sea-level rise is projected to be between 9 and 88 cm by 2100.
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Warming will vary by region.
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Average precipitation will increase globally but vary by region and
season, such that some areas may see increases or decreases in
precipitation overall or during particular times of the year.
There will likely also be changes in climate variability, and changes in
the frequency and intensity of some extreme climatic events.
Climate change, seasonality and
extremes
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Many climate- and weather-related
extremes are seasonal
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A hurricane, typhoon, cyclone season
Fire season
Growing season
Hot, cold; wet, dry seasons
Rainy season
Hunger season
Snowmelt season
Many human activities worldwide
depend on the expected flow of the
seasons
North America’s Superstorm ‘93
Foreseeability of superstorms
What constitutes a superstorm?
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A record setting event because
of its…
Extraordinary Magnitude
 Unusual location of impact
 Very high societal impacts and cost
 Extraordinary media coverage
 Being labeled as such by someone in
authority (really super or not)
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What is
a “season of superstorms”?
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Two to several blockbuster events
(same types) in a given season
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Several ordinary anomalies
(same
types) in a given season
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A large number of the same type of
event (events of varying magnitudes) in a
given season
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Back to back to back events
Unusually high level of impacts
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Deaths and destruction
Re-thinking climate change and high impact weather
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Scientists project more superstorms with
global warming
Successive storms close in time can have
the same damage as a single superstorm
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Storm sequencing as well as timing is
important
It is not only possible, but also likely, to
have a season of “superstorms”
Something new to worry about?
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A season of “Superstorms
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The 2004 NH summertime tropical storm
season
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In the Atlantic
 4 hurricanes in Florida (record
setting)
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In the Pacific
 10 typhoons in Japan (record setting)
Societal implications of Superstorms
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Where are superstorms likely to occur?
What will be their societal impacts?
Will all groups be affected equally?
How might governments prepare for
the inequitable impacts on society of
superstorms?
Should CO2 emitters be sued for extreme
event impacts?
Post-Hurricane-Mitch Honduras
a case study of impacts and ethics
A failed attempt
at disaster response
by the international community?
Pre-Mitch Honduras
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Honduras was the fourth poorest country in Latin America
High rate of deforestation; increased risk of flooding
Forest land converted to agriculture and rangelands
Honduras is an agrarian society, relying to a great extent
on agricultural exports; 20% in manufacturing; 67% in
agriculture
Honduras is the second largest country in Central America
(size of Louisiana); 6 million people, mostly rural; growth
rate 2.6% (1996)
Up to 80% live in poverty (in 1993); 40% unemployment;
73% literate
During 160+ years of independence, Honduras has had 16
constitutions and 126 governments
Ranked 83rd out of 85 countries for corruption (1998)
(tracked by www.transparency.org)
Hurricane Mitch, late October
1998
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Category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean Sea
Negative impact on all Central American countries
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Honduras was the worst affected
Tropical depression hovered over Honduras for a few days,
most damage done then
Heavy rains, mudslides, floods
80% of infrastructure was damaged
Banana plantations destroyed
10,000 dead, 7000 missing, hundreds of thousand
homeless
Deadliest hurricane season in 200 years since the Great
Hurricane of 1780
The Ministry of Education, seen here one day after Hurricane
Mitch-induced rains and flooding relented, were knee-deep in flood
waters again earlier this year only days after the rainy season
began. (Photo by Eric Schwimmer)
Disaster assistance vs. Sustainable development
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Disaster assistance (rapid response)
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Get back to ‘normal’
What was ‘normal’?
Rebuild in situ; replant banana plantations
Development aid (long term response)
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Sustainable development
Disaster responses tend to limit development
planning
This is an inter- vs. intra-generational
conflict as much as it is a
bureaucratic issue
Hurricane Fifi, September 1974
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Struck the north coast
Approximately 7000 dead
50% of agricultural land
affected 75% of banana
plantations destroyed
Not as powerful a
hurricane as Mitch
Different part of Honduras
affected
Banana exports
dominated exports (3350%)
Post-Fifi activities
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Little land use change after Fifi
Rebuilding in high-risk zones
Farming practices continued to degrade
watersheds
Illegal logging
Damaging of the forests
Clogged storm drains
No education and training for flood
evacuation
Lack of transparency in government,
corruption
Centralized government decision making
Mitch and Fifi
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Both hurricanes -- extremely destructive of economies ,
infrastructures, livelihoods
Poor populations were most affected
Both storms sparked plans to mitigate future tropical storm
impacts
International assistance waned over time
Many plans not implemented but shelved
Mitch and Fifi
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What if the plans proposed following Fifi had been
implemented 25 years earlier?
Would the impacts of Mitch have been as devastating as
they were?
Are the plans proposed after Mitch being implemented?
Is the international community still focused on
reconstructing Honduras?
What keeps Hondurans from developing a
livable future?
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Social obstacles
 The poor are living from day to day with little time to think
about future generations
 A social safety net would be required for those caught in
the transition from a ‘banana-exporting’ economy to one
based on a sustainable economy
 Inter-generational vs intra-generational conflicts
Political obstacles
 Who will have to pay for such a safety net?
 Political and economic corruption
 The need for land reform
 Reluctance of the rich to give up anything to the poor
International obstacles
 Donor burnout
 Honduran corruption
 Disaster vs development aid agencies
 Competition among donors
 Lack of absorptive capacity
 Inter- vs intra-generational conflicts
Possible futures for Honduras
In practice:
 “Business as usual”
 Return Honduras to “normal”
--- (4th poorest; among the most
corrupt, etc.)
 Await the next climate-related
disaster
 Hope to receive a percentage of aid
needed
 Compete with other disaster areas for
help
Intergenerational considerations
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In theory
Call on the international community
to make Honduras a 21st century
showcase for economic, social, and
political development
With the country flattened by Mitch
rebuild it in a sustainable way
Mesh short term disaster assistance
with sustainable development aid
goals
Can Honduras undergo
“leapfrog” development?
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Can a poor, developing country ever
achieve “sustainable” development
without a constant infusion of outside
assistance?
Why focus so much attention on
Honduras?
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Small country, small population
Infrastructure destroyed
Prone to climate-related disasters
Aid-giving countries have a chance to launch
Honduras on a path of sustainable development
Provides a chance for the ‘industrialized’
countries to show that sustainable development
can be achieved in the Third World
It encourages donor nations to “put their money
where their mouth is”
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If Honduras cannot be helped to make this
transition, perhaps no country can do it
Hurricane Mitch Impacts