Transcript S9_Belanger_WIPS_CLOSING: past, present and future climates

Western Interior Paleontological Society
Summary And Transition: Past,
Present And Future Climates
Paul E. Belanger, Ph.D.
WIPS 1ST VP
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Bob Raynolds
Jonathan Bujak
Dag Nummedal
Ian Miller
Peggy LeMone
Caspar Ammann …et al. that I did not mean to omit
Global Warming/Climate Change – Resource
Issues – Alternatives Study Group:
FTP SITE:
https://sslaccess.elkresources.net/files/
THE PRESENT IS THE KEY
TO THE PAST (LYELL) IS also
THE KEY TO THE FUTURE
THE PAST
FROM CSI TO GSI:
GEOLOGICAL SAMPLE
INVESTIGATION
LET THE EVIDENCE
SPEAK
FOR ITSELF
WE CALL THIS
EVIDENCE
“PROXY” DATA
SOME OF THE EARLIEST PROXY DATA
WAS FROM TERRESTRIAL DEPOSITS
•
•
•
•
Strandlines/shorelines
Moraines
Till
Kettle lakes, etc.
We may know what
caused these today,
but imagine back
then?
IT’S THE INTERPRETATION THAT’S NOT
ALWAYS CORRECT
Darwin observed ancient Alpine shorelines:
interpreted as ocean shoreline
Agassiz – later correctly interpreted as icedammed lake-shore strandlines/shoreline
• Jean Louis R.
Agassiz
• “Father” of
Glaciology
• 1807-1873
• Paleontologist
• Glaciologist
Photographic proxy
data/evidence
Ruddiman, 2008
EARLY
PROXY DATA:
TREE RINGS
Pollen & Lake core data
Ruddiman, 2008
PROXY DATA:
POLLEN DATA
PROXY DATA:
LEAVES
Tree rings, corals, ice cores
Ruddiman, 2008
PROXY DATA:
ICE CORES
TERRESTRIAL DATA
North American:
European:
Wisconsin
Wurm
Illinoian
Riss
Kansan
Mindel
Nebraskan
Gunz
LATER EVIDENCE CAME FROM
THE MARINE RECORD
NOT WITHOUT IT’S PROBLEMS,
BUT MORE COMPLETE
Cesare
Emilani:
Paleontologist,
Chemist
Father of
Paleoceanography
Other Paleoceanographers
Wally Broecker
Thermal-haline
“conveyor” belt of circulation
Other Paleoceanographers
Bill Ruddiman
Nick Shackleton
Other Paleoceanographers
John Imbrie:
CLIMAP
PROXY DATA:
CORE DATA
PROXY DATA:
BENTHIC
FORAMS
PROXY DATA:
PLANKTONIC
FORAMS
Deep Sea Coring
Ruddiman, 2008
Proxy data: stable isotopes
Wikipedia
- SO –
WHAT CONTROLS
CLIMATE
Gerhard et al., 2001
OF HUGE IMPORTANCE:
•DISTRIBUTION OF CONTINENTS WITH RESPECT TO LATITUDE
•OCEAN CIRCULATION
•OPENING OF THE DRAKE PASSAGE:
ISOLATING ANTARCTICA
•BARRIERS TO EQUATORIAL CIRCULATION:
CLOSING OF ISTHMUS OF PANAMA 3-5 Ma
we think of this as ‘normal’…but
bipolar glaciation
geologically rare
possibly unique
Icehouse Earth
Milankovitch
cycles
(forcing factors)
MILANKOVITCH
CYCLES ARE
REFLECTED IN THE
GEOLOGIC RECORD
Cenozoic Climate Record
Wikipedia
Climate Changes from Ocean Sediment
Cores, since 5 Ma. Milankovitch Cycles
Wikipedia
The Ice Record: Milankovitch
Empirical
Interpreted
Brook, 2008 Nature
Gerhard et al., 2001
BUT IS THIS
CORRECT?
Does CO2 always
have a lesser role in
controlling climate?
HERE’S THE LONG TERM RECORD
Jacobs
Fricke
Shellito
Snowball
Earth
~650 Ma
WHAT CONTROLS THE
LONG-TERM RECORD?
IS IT STRICTLY
CONTINENTAL POSITIONS
AND OCEANIC
CIRCULATION?
TODAY WE SAW
EOCENE EVIDENCE
OF A WARMER
CLIMATE
Jacobs
Ballantyne
Shellito
Fricke
In particular we saw a VERY DRAMATIC
increase in temperature in an
environment of already HIGH CO2
VALUES when there was an additional
spike of Methane and CO2
Proxy data: stable isotopes
Wikipedia
Fossil Lotus
Courtesy K. Johnson
Living Lotus
Courtesy K. Johnson
BUT MARY KRAUS DIDN’T TELL
US ABOUT THIS GUY!
RECENT FIND IN COLUMBIA
HERE’S NEW
COMPELLING DATA
FROM THE EOCENE
Early Eocene supergreenhouse
was followed immediately by
abrupt global cooling
What forced this change?
Bujak, pers. Comm.
ACEX – ARCTIC CORING EXPEDITION
Expedition 302 - Arctic Coring Expedition
August-September 2004
Lomonosov
Ridge
No Polar Ice Caps
P/E World
From Blakey (2007)
ARCTIC
EVENTS
PROXY DATA
Brinkhuis et al,, 2006
Moran et al., 2006
THE EVIDENCE DOCUMENTS AN
800,000 YEARS SEQUESTRATION
EVENT CALLED THE AZOLLA
EVENT
ACEX results
• 1400 ft (420m) cored section
• good Paleocene Eocene
section recovered
• cored the “Azolla event”
• cored the PETM
Bujak, pers. Comm.
ACEX Azolla core
• >8 metre ACEX core with 90% Azolla
• Azolla occurs as laminated layers
• indicates Azolla deposited in situ
• bottom-water anoxia at ACEX site
Bujak, pers. Comm.
?
Azolla event
base middle Eocene
49 Ma
Bujak, pers. Comm.
UNPRECEDENTED DROP IN CO2
the massive
decrease in
atmospheric
CO2?
Bujak, pers. Comm.
the fastest growing plant on the
planet!
it can double its biomass in 2 to 3
days
Bujak, pers. Comm.
the key is in
Azolla’s leaf
structure
source: Carrapiço, 2002
Bujak, pers. Comm.
Not unlike the increase GHGs at Paleocene-Eocene
causing a significant warming, there appears to be
a strong suggestion that this Azolla sequestration
of carbon GHGs for a period of about 800,000 years
correlates to an ensuing cooling of the globe.
That is NOT to say tectonic events like the opening
of the Drake Passage are not also of great
significance – particularly in the isolation of
Antarctica and its subsequent glaciation and
contribution to global cooling.
HERE’S THE LONG TERM RECORD
Jacobs
Fricke
Shellito
FOR LONG-TERM CLIMATIC CHANGES
THE EVIDENCE SUGGESTS:
Geologic
cycles:
Climate
through
the
Phanerozoic—
carbon is
the culprit
Royer et al., 2003
IMAGINE THIS:
IT’S ALSO TRUE FOR OTHER PLANETS
No sinks: Runaway
Greenhouse Effect
• 97% carbon dioxide
• 3% nitrogen
• Water & sulfuric acid
clouds
• Temperature:
>800°F – more than
twice as hot as
Mercury
Venus
The Many Time Scales of Climate Change
• Daily to several years: Weather – not Climate
1oUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF solar, El Ninos, volcanism, INCREASE IN
GHGs, etc.
•Century: the climate change the IPCC and people everywhere are worried
about, because it affects the economy of society, and tracks man’s direct impact
• Centuries to millennia – Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles; Heinrich events
1oUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MILANKOVITCH CYCLES, although abrupt
& rapid changes in CO2 (as occurred at the PETM) can be influential
• 20Ka to 400 Ka years – Milankovitch cycles - insolation due to earth’s orbital
changes
1oUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CO2
• 1Ma to many millions (Ma) years – Pennsylvanian ‘ice house’ and
Cretaceous ‘greenhouse’ due to plate tectonic cycles of continental assembly
and break-up and vertical movements. Cycling of CO2 into and out of earth
The Many Time Scales of Climate Change
(cont.)
Unique events:
“Snowball earth” in late Proterozoic (and more?)
Large volcanic eruptions (OAE-2 at C/T boundary)
PETM – major heat spike release of methane clathrates
Message: Don’t confuse the causes of climate change at one time scale with
the drivers of change at another.
The Long-term carbon cycle and
Earths climate:
Carbon cycles:
Long-term carbon cycle (millions of yrs)
• Driver of long-term climate changes along with
continental and ocean-circulation changes
• Responsible for Icehouses/Greenhouses
Short-term carbon cycle (~1,000s to 1,000,000 yrs)
• CO2 currently amplifies glacial-interglacial contrasts
Long-term carbon cycle and today:
• Burning fossil fuels is like setting off volcanoes >100
times faster than present eruptions rates
• Running a global experiment, which in not analogous
to glacial-interglacials – BUT MAY BE ANALOGOUS
to the PETM.
THE PRESENT
(and near future)
THE PRESENT
So what’s going on today?
What’s going to happen in the
short-term?
Today’s Unique Event:
Anthropogenic Global Warming
Pliocene levels
of 385ppm
Today
CO2 for the
past 400 ky
1946 – 1950
svs.gsfc.nasa.gov
2002 - 2006
Temperature
svs.gsfc.nasa.gov
Arctic Sea Ice Extent
Satellite imagery of sea ice extent in September
1979, and at a record low in September 2007. Source: NASA
If sea-ice continues to contract rapidly over the next several years, Arctic land
warming and permafrost thaw are likely to accelerate.
David Lawrence, NCAR
The State of Affairs
NOAA web site archives & Peter Tans
Distribution of Warming: Polar/Cold Regions
Wikipedia
HOWEVER:
THE LATEST DATA THRU 2007
SUGGESTS GREEN HOUSE GASES
ARE MATCHING AND OVERTAKING
TSI VARIATIONS
NCAR: Caspar Amman, 2007
LOWER VS. UPPER ATM.
Solar irradiance: 342 W/m2
Wikipedia
CHOICES
• DO NOTHING and adapt (there WILL be a REAL cost here too)
• MITIGATE (or attempt to) and adapt:
–
–
–
–
Sequester
Alternate energy sources
Geo-Engineering options
Etc.
• Promote population control: “wear a condom at every
‘conceivable’ moment”
• THINK about it
• But ultimately: CHOOSE WHAT TO DO IN LIFE BEFORE LIFE
CHOOSES WHAT YOU DO
THE FUTURE
(Beyond the Anthropomorphic Period)
FUTURE CLIMATE?
FUTURE
PAST
Crowley & Hyde, 2008
FUTURE CLIMATE?
Higher
Interglacial
Lower
-
FUTURE
Glacial
-
PAST
Crowley & Hyde, 2008
FUTURE CLIMATE?
FUTURE
PAST
Crowley & Hyde, 2008
Look at the Trend:
Any reason to think it might not
continue?
Time, Ma
IN SUMMARY:
THE PAST
PRESENT
AND FUTURE
Jacobs
Ballantyne
Shellito
Fricke
TOMORROW
(AS IN 14 HOURS FROM NOW)
Western Interior Paleontological Society
Founders Symposium
Sunday, March 15th 2009
NOAA:
NCAR/UCAR:
NCAR/UCAR GUIDES
(Coordinated by Peggy LeMone)
BE THERE AT 8:30 a.m. / 1:00 p.m.
2 Groups
Kyle Ham
• Current Position: Education Specialist and Bilingual
Educator
• University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
(UCAR)
• Office of Education and Outreach
Teri Eastburn,
• Coordinator, Public Programs
• University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
(UCAR)
• Office of Education and Outreach
NOAA
(National
Oceanic Atmospheric Administration)
(Coordinated by Dan Winester)
BE THERE AT 8:30 a.m. / 1:00 p.m.
Groups of 3
Don Mock, William Murtagh, George Sharman, & Sandy MacDonald:
NOAA; ESRL (Earth Systems Research Lab); SWPC (Space Weather
Prediction Center); NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center)
NOAA
(cont.)
SOS: Science on a Sphere. This a 3D display of global (and astronomic) projected
onto a large sphere. The audience can view and walk around the sphere to bet a
global view of data sets. NOAA has over 200 data sets, including time-varying
ones. Such data sets as atmospheric processes, plate tectonics, topography, lights at
night etc. (40 minutes)
ESRL and other NOAA (Earth Systems Research Lab): (40 minutes)
Greenhouse gas lab weather forecast office
Wind profiler
High performance computing center
Ozone chemistry
SWPC: Space Weather Prediction Center (20 minutes)
Effect of solar storms on electrical transmission, broadcasts, animal navigation
Geomagnetic disturbances
NGDC: National Geophysical Data Center (20 minutes)
Large array storage
Night time lights
Paleoclimatology (Tree rings, ice cores, geologic cores)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Bob Raynolds
Jonathan Bujak
Dag Nummedal
Ian Miller
Peggy LeMone
Caspar Ammann …et al. that I did not mean to omit
Global Warming/Climate Change – Resource
Issues – Alternatives Study Group:
FTP SITE:
https://sslaccess.elkresources.net/files/
Western Interior Paleontological Society
QUESTIONS?