Transcript Natural or Anthropogenic?

Climate Change and Fossil
Fuels
Will running out of oil help
mitigate global warming?
Dr. Robert Brecha
Physics Dept., Univ. of Dayton
Dayton, OH USA 45469-2314
[email protected]
WSU March 1, 2007
Outline

Climate change signals
 Climate models and projections
 Peak oil (and natural gas and coal)
 Will fossil fuel limits have an effect?
 Conclusion
The Past
Mean global temperature distribution
Energy Balance
“Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications” James Hansen, et al.
Science 3 June 2005 308: 1431-1435 – Current imbalance of 0.85±0.15 W/m2
CO2 Record
CO2 and CH4
concentration
The Future
Model scenario indicators
Climate “Forcings”
Model projections
Temperature change - natural or
anthropogenic?
Energy and fossil fuels
World energy use
Total
~400 Quadrillion Btu
Coal
Geothermal, wind,
solar, etc.
Gas
RE
Biomass
(13.4%)
Nuclear
Hydro
Oil
(34.9%)
World: ~84 million barrels/day; US: ~21 million barrels/day
US production peak
US Production
Gaussian
Million barrels per year
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
Approximately
30 out of 40 largest producers have crossed a peak
1500
1000
500
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
Year
2050
2100
Peak models – world production
Billion barrels per year
40
USGS
(BP + 50%)
35
30
25
20
15
10
BP
reserves
5
0
2150
2100
2050
2000
1950
1900
1850
Year
Discovery vs. consumption
Discovery and production
World Reserves and R/P
Corrected for OPEC
R/P Ratio
1400
35
1200
34
1000
33
800
32
600
31
400
30
200
29
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
28
2010
R/P Ratio
World reserves (Gb)
BP Data
Production and R/P Ratio
3500
14
3000
12
2500
10
2000
8
1500
6
1000
4
500
2
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
0
2010
R/P ratio
Mb/d
Great Britain Production
Most Recent EIA Predictions
(June 2006)
In the IEO2006 reference case, … (p)roduction from Norway … is expected
to peak at about 3.6 MMbd in 2006 and then decline gradually to about
2.5 MMbd in 2030 ... The UK sector is expected to produce about
2.2 MMbd in 2010, followed by a decline to 1.4 MMbd in 2030.
Natural Gas
National Petroleum Council (1998)
US Prod.
Import from Canada
1998
550 Bcm
90 Bcm
2010
725 Bcm
120 Bcm
2015
780 Bcm
Now the numbers are more like …
1998
550 Bcm
2003
550 Bcm
2004
540 Bcm
2005
526 Bcm
And Canada peaked
in 2002 at 188 Bcm
and expects a decline
of 2.5% per year
Natural Gas in the US
U.S. NG Data
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1960
25
20
15
10
5
1970
1980
(per day)
1990
2000
US Production (Bcf)
Percentage of successful wells
US Proven Reserves (Tcf)
Henry Hub Prices ($/MMBtu)
Number of wells drilled (thousands)
EIA Statistical Review of World Energy data
0
2010
U.S. Coal Production
1200
30.00
1000
25.00
800
20.00
600
15.00
400
10.00
200
5.00
0
1950
1960
1970
Coal production
1980
1990
Energy content
2000
0.00
2010
Million Btu/ton
Coal energy content (Quads)
Total Production (million tons)
US Coal Production, 1949-2004
U.S. Coal Production
Lower quality
coal
Energy Information Administration – Annual Energy Review 2005
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/coal.html
US Anthracite Production
120
Million tons/year
100
80
60
40
20
0
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
R/P for Coal
1993 – According to BP, reserves will last
250 years
 2005 – According to BP, reserves will last
155 years
 3% future growth (less than currently),
reserves will last 65 years

U.S. figures: 1939, 3800 years remaining; 1953, 1900 years;
1993, 300 years; 2005, 240 years left
EROEI
Tar sands
Hydro
Wind
Energy output
Energy input
“Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States” C. Cleveland Energy 30 (2005) 769–782
Tar Sands

Alberta, Canada
 Effectively a mining operation
 Current production of 106 b/d of synthetic crude oil
 Estimate ~3×106 b/d in 10 yrs., 5×106 b/d in 25 yrs.
 Needs large amounts of NG and water,
plus hazardous waste disposal
 EROEI is perhaps 2:1 – 3:1
Oil Shale

Western U.S.
 Possibly 800 billion barrels !!
 A mined product
 Techniques proven in principle, but not large scale
 Only profitable with oil >$75/bbl
 High growth, optimum scenario – 106 b/d in 2025
 EROEI is (optimistically?) estimated at ~2:1 – 4:1
Rand Corp. report for US DOE, Nat’l. Energy Tech. Lab.
Ethanol from Corn
Yield for ethanol from corn is ~70 GJ/ha (@9000 kgcorn/ha)
Automobile + light truck transportation uses ~1.7×1010 GJ/a
Quick calculation: we would need 2.4×108 ha of land
Currently we have in the US 1.2×108 ha of cropland total
But … the key point missing is the energy input. Ethanol from
industrial-scale corn farming is barely an energy break-even.
Energy return on Energy invested (EROEI) ratio is ~1.3. GHG
emissions are only slightly less than for conventional gasoline –
and can be worse if coal-generated electricity is used.
D.Pimentel and T. Patzek, Natural Resources Research 14, 65-76 (2005)
Shapouri - USDA “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update” Ag. Econ. Report 813
Farrell et al., Science 311, 506-508 (2006)
Fossil fuels and CO2
SRES - Oil
A1 Scenarios
A1B-AIM
A1B-ASF
800
A1B-IMAGE
A1B-MARIA
Energy from oil (EJ)
700
A1B-MESSAGE
A1B-MiniCAM
600
A1C-AIM
500
A1C-MESSAGE
A1C-MiniCAM
400
A1G-AIM
A1G-MESSAGE
300
A1F1-MiniCAM
200
A1T-AIM
A1T-MESSAGE
100
0
1990
A1T-MARIA
A1v1-MiniCAM
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
My 2010 peak
My 2025 peak
SRES - Oil
B2 Scenarios
400
B2-AIM
Energy from oil (EJ)
350
B2-ASF
300
B2-IMAGE
250
B2-MARIA
B2-MESSAGE
200
B2-MiniCAM
150
B2C-MARIA
100
B2High-MiniCAM
My 2010 peak
50
0
1990
My 2025 peak
2040
2090
SRES - NG
NG and SRES Marker Scenarios
NG Consumption, EJ/yr
600
500
A1
400
A2
B1
300
B2
My low
200
My medium
My high
100
0
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Oil and CO2
40
4
35
3.5
30
3
25
2.5
20
2
15
1.5
10
1
5
0
1800
0.5
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
0
2150
CO2 emissions (Gt C/a)
World oil production (Gb/a)
Oil production and CO2
Natural Gas and CO2
World NG consumption and CO2 from NG
180
2.5
2.0
140
EJ/year
120
100
1.5
y = 1.8477x - 3602.4
2
R = 0.9944
80
1.0
60
y = 0.0252x - 49.172
40
0.5
2
R = 0.9944
20
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
0.0
2070
CO2 emissions (Gt C/yr)
160
Coal production
CO2 emissions (GtC)
1% Grow th
2% Grow th
4% Grow th
6% Grow th
7
14
6
12
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
0
1975
2000
2025
2050
2075
2100
CO2 Emissions (GtC)
Gt coal
Coal and CO2
Total CO2 – Middle Scenarios
16
CO2 Emissions (GtC)
14
12
10
Coal CO2
8
NG CO2
Oil CO2
6
4
2
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Total anthropogenic carbon
emissions
a
b
Peak fossil fuel
scenario
Global Sea Level Changes
Rahmstorf, Science (2007)
Stop burning fossil fuels?
“The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE
Keep burning at same rate?
“The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE
Will climate change mitigation be
costly?

Some coupled economic-climate models
show the costs to be minimal
 Stern report – not acting now will be
extremely costly
 U.S. businesses that have taken action to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions have
found positive bottom-line results