Transcript thomas-homer-dixon - Network for Sustainable Financial Markets

Five notable characteristics of
contemporary world:
• Multiple stresses
• Macro-perturbations of natural
systems
• Impending energy transition
• Rising connectivity and complexity
• Power shift
CONVERGENT STRESSES
OVERLOAD
Stress
_________
Coping capacity
CONVERGENCE and SYNERGY
X
Stresses
X
Overload
X
X
TECTONIC STRESSES
Population
growth
Environmental
damage
Energy
scarcity
Climate
change
Economic instability
and inequality
x
x
Overload
x
x
Co-evolution of Society and Nature
Nature
nonlinear
Society
nonlinear
Nonlinearity: Absence of simple proportionality between cause and effect
We need to shift from seeing the world
as composed mainly of
MACHINES
to seeing it as composed mainly of
COMPLEX SYSTEMS
Whereas MACHINES
• can be taken apart, analyzed, and fully
understood (they are no more than the sum
of their parts)
• exhibit “normal” or equilibrium patterns of
behavior
• show proportionality of cause and effect,
and
• can be managed because their behavior
predictable . . .
COMPLEX SYTEMS
• are more than the sum of their parts (they
have emergent properties)
• can flip from one pattern of behavior to
another (they have multiple equilibriums)
• show disproportionality of cause and effect
(their behavior is often nonlinear, because
of feedbacks and synergies), and
• cannot be easily managed because their
behavior is often unpredictable.
We’re moving from a world of
RISK
to a world of
UNCERTAINTY
(unknown unknowns)
So, we must move from “management” to
Complex Adaptation
CLIMATE
Positive feedbacks appear to be
developing enormous force
Changes in the Arctic appear to be
occurring far faster than expected
“Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth’s
climate is remarkably sensitive to global
forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This
allows the entire planet to be whipsawed
between climate states. . . . Recent greenhouse
gas emissions place the Earth perilously close to
dramatic climate change that could run out of
our control, with great dangers for humans and
other creatures.”
Hansen et al, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2007).
GISS analysis of global surface temperature; 2008 point is 11-month mean.
Battisti and Naylor, “Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.”
Science (9 January 2009): 240-44
Battisti and Naylor, “Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.”
Science (9 January 2009): 240-44
More rapid warming at poles
One reason: Ice-albedo feedback
Atmospheric
warming
radiative
Increased ocean
positive feedback,
absorption of
sun’s energy
fast
Lower reflectivity
of ocean surface
Melting of
ice
2008
4.52 mK2
“[The] climate change that takes place due to increases
in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for
1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of
emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide
decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated
by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric
temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000
years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should
be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations increase from current levels near 385
parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450–600
ppmv over the coming century are dry-season rainfall
reductions in several regions comparable to those of the
‘‘dust bowl’’ era and inexorable sea level rise.”
Solomon et al, “Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions,” PNAS
(February 10 2009).
VULNERABILITY OF THE GLOBAL FOOD SYSTEM
China requires about 450 million tons of
grain each year
World grain trade is about 200 million tons
An intervention by China on world grain
markets for only 10 percent of its needs
would absorb 25 percent of grain on
world markets
WEAKENING OF EAST ASIAN MONSOON
IPCC 2007
(A) Forcings
used to drive
climate
simulations.
(B) Simulated and
observed surface
temperature
change.
Source: Earth's
energy imbalance:
Confirmation and
implications. Science
308, 1431, 2005.
ENERGY
We are probably near peak
global output of conventional oil
Energy costs will continue to rise
relative to other costs in coming
years
Producing energy costs energy
This principle is best understood
through the concept of
Energy Return on
Investment (EROI)
5
Recent
emissions
Trajectory
of
Global
Fossil
Fuel Emissions
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
CO2 Emissions (GtC y-1)
10
Actual emissions: CDIAC
Actual emissions: EIA
450ppm stabilisation
650ppm stabilisation
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
9
8
7
2100
50-year
constant
growth rates
2006
2005
to 2050
B1
1.1%,
A1B
1.7%,
A2
1.8%
A1FI 2.4%
Observed
6
2000-2006
3.3%
5
1990
1995
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
2000
2005
2010
BRITTLENESS
Increased Risk of Cascading Failure
As a result of tight coupling of nodes
ANOTHER RESPONSE:
Increase system resilience
RESILIENT people, institutions
and societies . . .
have the capability to withstand
shock without catastrophic failure
In a complex, tightly connected
world exhibiting increasingly
frequent and severe system
shock . . .
the balance of economic and
social investment should
shift away from efficiency
towards resilience.
POWER SHIFT
Individuals and small groups
are developing immense capacity
to kill and destroy
In this new
world, what
should we do?
Coping with Carbon
Strategies from conventional to radical
(assuming a significant carbon price)
• Efficiency and conservation
• Renewables (GSHPs)
• Coal with CCS and nuclear
• Unconventional technologies (UCG, enhanced geothermal,
stratospheric windmills)
• Atmospheric carbon capture
• Geoengineering
• Shifting away from conventionally defined “growth”
GROWTH = SOLVENCY
GROWTH = FREEDOM
GROWTH = PEACE
Increase system resilience:
RESILIENT people, institutions
and societies . . .
have the capability to withstand
shock without catastrophic failure
Connectivity and Resilience
Resilience
Connectivity
FIVE PERCEPTUAL SHIFTS
to achieve the Prospective Mind
• Systems:
From MECHANICAL to COMPLEX
• Self:
From CONSUMER to PROBLEM
SOLVER
• Values:
From UTILITARIAN to MORAL and
EXISTENTIAL
• Knowledge: From DISCIPLINARY to
INTEGRATED
• Community: From NATIONAL, ETHNIC and
CULTURAL to GLOBAL