Transcript Global Monitoring Report 2008

Global Monitoring Report 2008
MDGs and the Environment
Agenda for Inclusive and Sustainable Development
1
World on track on poverty reduction and gender
parity at school MDGs, but serious shortfalls likely
on nutrition, education, health, and sanitation goals
d
2
Africa lags on all MDGs, South Asia on most
human development goals. At country level,
most countries are off track to meet most MDGs
3
Progress toward MDGs slowest in fragile states—
even negative on some MDGs
4
Agenda ahead
• Assessment at midpoint shows urgent need to generate
stronger, more inclusive momentum toward the MDGs
• With stronger efforts by countries and by development
partners, most MDGs still achievable for most countries
• As MDG 7 underscores, development and environmental
sustainability are integrally linked
• In this Year of Action for MDGs, need to agree on priority
actions and milestones for monitoring progress
• Report emphasizes a six-point agenda for inclusive and
sustainable development
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MDGs and the environment: A six-point agenda
for inclusive and sustainable development
• Sustain and broaden the growth momentum
• Achieve better results in human development
• Integrate development and environmental
sustainability
• Scale up aid and increase its effectiveness
• Harness trade for strong, inclusive, and sustainable
growth
• Leverage IFI support for inclusive and sustainable
development
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Increased risks from financial turbulence—
developing-country growth slowing but still robust
annual % change
8
6
4
2
0
World output
2007
Advanced
economies
2008 (Projected)
Emerging market
and developing
countries
Africa
2009 (Projected)
7
Private capital flows expected to ease but
remain relatively abundant
Net private capital flows to developing countries
$ billions
Percent
$1 trillion in 2007
1000
8
800
6
Percent of GDP
(right axis)
600
4
400
2
200
0
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008P
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Sharp rises in energy and food prices add to risks
Commodity Price Index (1990=100)
500
400
300
200
100
0
1990
1992
1994
grains
1996
1998
raw materials
2000
2002
metals
2004
2006
2008
energy
9
Growth in Africa has improved, but varies widely
across countries
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Growth needs to be more inclusive—
both across and within countries
Annual change in Gini coefficient in 59 developing countries
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More but better spending on education and health
Public spending on education and health typically favors the rich
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National income positively related to health
quality—public health spending alone is not
Relationship of health quality to income and public health spending
13
Stronger focus needed on combating
malnutrition—higher food prices increase urgency
Incidence of stunting remains high in low-income countries
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Environmental health risks—a significant concern
Economic burden of poor environmental health can be high—
1.5-4% of GDP annually
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Deforestation causes loss of forest equivalent in
size to Panama or Sierra Leone every year
Annual deforestation by region and income group, 2000-05
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Developing countries are most vulnerable to climate
change and least able to adapt
Impact of climate change on agricultural yields, 2079-99
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Mitigation calls for common but differentiated
responsibilities
Per capita GHG emissions (including from land use change), 2000
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Countries’ absorptive capacity rising, but aid falling
DAC members’ net ODA flows
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Donor performance varies widely
DAC members’ ODA
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Time to deliver on aid commitments is now
Most of the promised increase in aid has not yet materialized
2004 US$ billions
150
Total Net ODA
Net ODA to SSA
120
90
60
30
0
All DAC donors
G7 donors
2004
2007
All DAC donors
G7 donors
2010 target*
*Based on commitments made at Gleneagles and other donor commitments in 2005
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Doha remains crucial
Support to agriculture has not been declining
Gross subsidy equivalents of assistance to farmers, 1960-2004
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Increase aid for trade—to promote inclusiveness
in exploitation of trade opportunities
Aid for trade, average 2002-06
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Trade policy should facilitate transfer of
environmentally friendly technologies
Environmental goods currently confront significant trade restrictiveness
Trade Restrictiveness Index (%)
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MDBs had record disbursements in 2007
Even as their relative financing role declines, international
financial institutions’ impact through leverage remains key
MDBs’ gross disbursements by type of flow and region, 2000-07
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Extra Slides
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Diversity of food price impacts on poverty
Impact of food price increases in 2005-07 on $1/day poverty
$1/day poverty rate
12
10
8
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4
2
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Total
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Rising food prices—countries are
responding, but differently
Safety net interventions
Food price policies
Percentage of 58 countries
Percentage of 58 countries
30
45
40
25
35
30
25
20
20
15
15
10
5
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Special Theme
Environmental Sustainability
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Adjusted net savings trends
1990-2005
30
Natural resource dependence and sustainability
Depletion of natural resources is often associated
with declining national wealth
50
40
Percent of GNI
Natural resource dependence patterns vary
across regions
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Major oil producers
Non-renewable resource rents
Adjusted net saving
31
Depletion of natural resources: it’s not just oil
Annual deforestation (2000-2005)
Freshwater availability
(trends and projections)
32
Monitoring environmental policies and institutions
Progress in institutional and policy
performance has been uneven across
regions (CPIA environment scores)
CPIA disaggregated scores show that there is
a gap between policy formulation and
capacity to enforce
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Global Environmental SustainabilityOne Size Does Not Fit All
High income countries
Provide global public goods
– e.g. Kyoto and beyond
High deforestation
countries (e.g.
Brazil) – Eliminate
perverse
incentives, improve
governance
Biodiversity rich
countries (e.g.
Peru) – Conserve
natural areas, tap
global finance for
conservation,
develop
ecotourism
High child mortality
countries (e.g. Mali)
Provide water and
sanitation, improve
access to electricity
Countries in transition (e.g.
Ukraine) Increase energy
efficiency and control pollution
Rapidly growing
countries (e.g. China,
India) Reduce carbon
intensity of growth
AgricultureIncreasing water
dependent
scarcity (e.g. MNA)
countries (e.g.
Increase water use
Ethiopia)
efficiency, define
Manage land and
water use rights
water resources,
diversify assets
Sub-soil resource rich
countries (e.g. Mozambique)
Invest resource rents, improve
governance
Rapidly
urbanizing
countries (e.g.
Vietnam)
Manage
pollution from
transport and
industry
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Climate Change and Development
35
Climate change impacts on agriculture
% change in output
Impact of baseline global warming on agriculture (by 2080)
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
MWI ZAR TZA NER GNB
Countries with lowest GDP
USA NOR CHE DNK NLD
Countries with highest GDP
36
Climate change impacts health, particularly in Africa,
the Middle East, and part of South Asia
Estimated deaths due to climate change in 2000, by WHO subregion
37
Sea level rise
% impacted
Vulnerability to sea level rise, 1m
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Area
LA
Population
MENA
SSA
GDP
EA
Urban
extent
Ag. Extent Wetlands
SA
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Maldives
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
MNA
India
Bangladesh
Syria
Yemen
Tunisia
LAC
Jordan
Iran
Nicaragua
Haiti
EAP
Belize
Antigua Barbados
Honduras
Philippines
Solomon Islands
Laos PDR
SSA
Samoa
Tonga
Botswana
Djibouti
Sudan
Mozambique
Ethiopia
Climate vulnerability: Weather damage index
2500
SAR
2000
1500
1000
500
0
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Comparison of emissions for Annex I and NonAnnex I countries
Annex I: Developed countries Non-Annex I: Developing countries
Source: CAIT Version 5.0 (World Resources Institute, 2008)
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Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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Energy access
(percent of population without access to electricity, 2005)
Transition economies and OECD
Developing Countries
Middle East
Latin America
South Asia
China and East Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
North Africa
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Percent
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Climate Change Priorities
Mitigation
Adaptation
Common but differentiated
responsibilities across countries
For developing countries, best
way to adapt is to develop, which
will:
•diversify economies
•reduce climate-sensitive
diseases: malaria, malnutrition
and diarrhea
•provide the resources to adapt
Carbon intensity of GDP must be
reduced by:
•pricing / trading carbon
•development and diffusion of
cleaner, energy efficient
technologies
•development of renewable
energy
•financing and technology
transfer
•reducing deforestation using
carbon finance
Programs to reduce vulnerability
and “climate proof” investments
Implementing early warning
systems for heat waves, floods,
droughts
Building dams to accommodate
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increased runoff
World Bank: Strategic Framework on Climate
Change and Development
1. Make effective climate action – both adaptation and
mitigation – part of core development efforts
2. Address the resource gap through existing and
innovative instruments for concessional finance
3. Facilitate the development of innovative market
mechanisms
4. Create enabling environment for and leveraging private
sector finance
5. Accelerate the deployment of existing and development
of new climate-friendly technologies
6. Step-up policy research, knowledge management and
capacity building
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