Transcript WEAP_03May06_DY

Stockholm Environment Institute
Natural Heritage Institute
CABY Watershed Modeling with WEAP
David Purkey and David Yates
CABY Planning Meeting
May 6 2006
Application of WEAP to the
American River Basin
Catchment Delineation
• Based on six digit hydrologic units (HUC6).
• HUCs were subdivided if necessary to
calculate inflows to key reservoirs.
• In addition to 56 catchments in the
American River Basin, the Camp Creek and
Sly Park Creek catchments were added to
compute inflow to Jenkinson Lake.
American River Basin
Major Streams in Basin
Model Catchments
Catchment Characterization
• Land was categorized using the SSURGO soils
and the CALVEG vegetation databases.
– Soils were classified as shallow or deep.
– Vegetation was classified as trees, shrubs, bare, urban,
grassland, or wet.
• Resulting classifications were
–
–
–
–
Deep trees
Shallow trees
Deep shrubs
Etc.
Modeled Rivers
Modeled Reservoirs
French Meadows
Hell Hole
Loon Lake
Stumpy Mdw
Union Valley
Ice House
Folsom
Sly Park
Echo
Aloha
Caples & Silver
Modeled Transfers
Climate Data
• DAYMET.org (Univ. Montana & NCAR)
– Daily, 1-km gridded data were mapped o the
centroids of each suib-catchment
– Precipitation, temperature, humidity, and wind.
• Data were developed using observed
climate data and terrain models.
Middle Fork Project
Upper American Project
El Dorado Irrigation District
Calibration Results
North Fork American at
North Fork Dam
40000
Simulated
35000
Observed
Acre-Feet
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
Date
M
J
J
A
S
Upper Duncan
2000
1800
Observed
Simulated
1600
Acre-Feet
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
Date
M
J
J
A
S
Caples Lake SWE
70
60
Observed
Simulated
Inches
50
40
30
20
10
0
Dec-88 Dec-89 Dec-90 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00
Date
Middle Fork American at Foresthill
70000
Observed
Observed
With Operations
w/oOperations
Operations
w/o
60000
Acre-Feet
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
Date
M
J
J
A
S
Climate Change (and other)
Scenarios in WEAP
Probabilistic assessment of regional climate change
A Bayesian approach that combines predictions from
multiple AOGCM output (21 models)
Probabilistic representation of temperature/precipitation change, at regional
scales, incorporating natural variability
Reconciles projections from different AOGCMs
BIAS and CONVERGENCE criteria:
Reward models that perform well in reproducing current climate/
discount models that show a large bias
Reward models that form a consensus/downweight extreme
Projections
Avoids the Problems of being “Married” to individual GCM!!
Climate Scenarios- Probabilistic Projections
A1B Seasonal Changes for Northern California from 21 AOGCMs
Precipitation
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter- equal likelihood of
more or less precip.; no
strong long term trend
Spring, Summer Fall- more
likelihood of less precip.
Climate Scenarios- Probabilistic Projections
A1B Seasonal Changes for Northern California from 21 AOGCMs
Temperature
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Early 21st Century warming
of 0.8C
Natural variability could
mask early 21st century
anthropogenic warming.
Climate Scenarios - Probabilistic Projections
• These probabilistic projections are useful, for
getting a “feel” for the climatic range suggested by
AOGCM models.
• BUT.. How do we use this information given
impact assessment needs?
• Impact assessment models need “REAL DATA” ..
E.g. Climate time series, such as temperature,
precipitation, wind, humidity, etc.
This is the downscaling process…
Climate Scenarios - Probabilistic Projections
K-Nearest Neighbor Downscaling
Single Climate Scenario Instance
2500
Hist Avg. Tmp
Hist Avg Pcp
2000
1500
1000
500
Precipitation
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
17-2061
35-2054
52-2057
1-2048
18-2051
19-2041
36-2044
37-2034
2-2038
3-2028
20-2031
21-2021
38-2024
39-2014
4-2018
5-2008
22-2011
0
40-2004
Temperature
Moderate Warming and Drying
Yates et al. 2003, A K-nn algorithm for generating regional climate scenarios, WRR
Climate Scenarios- Probabilistic Projections
Monthly Avg. Temperature for Alder Creek - 2010 to 2030
Avg Temp Alder_C A1B Wm Wet_1
20
WmWet 1
5
5
10
10
15
WmDry 1
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
WmWet 5
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jul
Sep
Nov
0
5
5
10
10
15
WmDry 5
20
Jan
Avg Temp Alder_C A1B Wm Dry_1
15
20
-5
Avg Temp Alder_C A1B Wm Dry_5
-5
0
0
historic
-5
0
C
15
20
Avg Temp Alder_C A1B Wm Dry_1
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Climate Scenarios- Probabilistic Projections
Monthly Total Precipitation Data for Alder Creek – 2010 to 2030
Total ppt Alder_C A1B Wm Wet_1
60
80
Total ppt Alder_C A1B Wm Dry_1
WmWet 1
40
40
30
historic
10
20
20
mm
60
50
WmDry 1
Mar
50
Jan
May
Jul
Sep
Jan
Nov
Mar
80
WmDry 5
Total ppt Alder_C A1B Wm Wet_5
0
0
Total ppt Alder_C A1B Wm Dry_5
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
40
30
20
20
0
10
0
mm
60
40
WmWet 5
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
North and Middle Forks
French Meadows
Hell Hole
100
cms
150
200
Runoff North
Fork
American
North Fork
American
0
50
historic
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Climate Change and Hydropower for the main projects
An ensemble of climate projections
and their impacts on hydropower
Gw-hrs
Headline: Even Wet scenarios suggest a decline in production
with given operating rules.
160000
120000
80000
40000
0
Week 33
Week 30
Week 27
Week 24
Week 21
Week 18
Week 15
Week 12
Week 9
Week 6
Week 3
Week 52
Week 49
Week 46
Week 43
Week 40
Week 39
historic
Week 39
200000
Week 36
Total Avg. Weekly Storage- Middle Fork Project
Week 36
Week 33
Week 30
Week 27
Week 24
Week 21
Week 18
Week 15
Week 12
Week 9
Week 6
Week 3
Week 52
Week 49
Week 46
Week 43
Week 40
Acre-feet
Project
Storage
acre-feet
Total Avg. Weekly Storage (UARP)
370000
320000
historic
270000
220000
170000
120000
North Fork Water Temps- Unmanaged Watershed
WARM Dry
WARM Very Dry
N Frk Middle Fk Water Temperature A1B Wm Dry_5
5
5
10
10
15
15
20
20
N Frk Middle Fk Water Temperature A1B Wm Dry_1
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Middle Fork Water Temps – Managed Watershed
WARM Dry
WARM Very Dry
Middle Fork Water Temperature A1B Wm Dry_5
8
8
10
10
12
12
14
14
16
16
Middle Fork Water Temperature A1B Wm Dry_1
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov