Transcript The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security and

Carbon Cure: Hethel Engineering Centre:
6th July 2011
The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy
Security and Cost of our Future Energy Supplies
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
5th October 2007
CRed
carbon reduction
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Reader Emeritus in Environmental Sciences; Energy Science Adviser CRed
Norwich Business School, University of East Anglia:
[email protected]
The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security and
Cost of our Future Energy Supplies
Businesses are faced with three challenges associated
with Energy Use:
• Increasing Evidence of Anthropogenic Climate Change
– and consequential legislation
• Issues of Energy Security – particularly in UK
• The need to minimise cost exposures to price fluctuations in
Energy
These Challenges can be addressed by:
• Moving to Low Carbon Energy Supply
• Employing Technical Solutions to improve efficiency of EndUse Energy.
• Promoting Awareness among users.
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Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK
140
Gas Production and Demand in UK
On 7th/8th December 2010: UK
Production was only 39%: 12%
from storage and 49% from
imports
100
Import
Gap
80
60
Actual UK production
40
Actual UK demand
Projected production
Projected demand
20
0
2000
2004
Prices have
become much
more volatile
since UK is no
longer self
sufficient in
gas.
2008
2012
10
8
6
2016
2020
Wholesale Electricity Prices
12
p/kWh
Billion cubic metres
120
Completion of
Langeled Gas
UK becomes net Line to Norway
importer of gas
4
Oil reaches
$140 a barrel
2
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
3
What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Developing
EU
Other OECD
UK
France
Transition
Oil Producing
Pakistan
India
Namibia
Brazil
Turkey
China
Mexico
Lithuania
Sweden
Switzerland
France
Ukraine
South_Africa
Libya
Norway
Italy
Greece
UK
Denmark
Japan
Germany
Russia
Netherlands
US
UAE
Qatar
tonnes/capita
How does UK compare with other countries?
Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?
Per capita Carbon Emissions
4
Carbon Emissions and Electricity
Carbon Emission Factor in Electricity Generation
1200
gms CO2 / kWh
1000
Developing
EU
Oil Exporting
Other OECD
800
UK
600
France
400
200
•
•
Coal ~ 900 - 1000 g / kWh
Oil ~ 800 – 900 g/kWh
•
Gas (CCGT)
~ 400 - 430 kg/kWh
•
Nuclear
~
Current UK mix ~ 530 g/kWh
5 – 20 g/kWh
Poland
India
Australia
Libya
China
Italy
Czech Republic
USA
Denmark
Portugal
Germany
UK
Netherlands
Japan
Spain
UAE
Qatar
Luxembourg
Belgium
Austria
France
Sweden
Switzerland
Norway
0
5
Electricity Generation i n selected Countries
coal
USA
oil
Japan
UK
gas
nuclear
hydro
Germany
France
Poland
India
Sweden
China
Norway
other
renewables
Russia
6
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
0 - 80% (at present 45- Available now (but gas
50%)
is running out)
Gas CCGT
nuclear fission
(long term)
Energy
Review
2002
9th May
2011 (*)
8.0p
[5 - 11]
~2p +
0 - 15% (France 80%) - new inherently safe
(currently 18% and
designs - some
2.5 - 3.5p
falling)
development needed
7.75p
[5.5 - 10]
Installed Capacity (MW)
notisavailable
earliest
Nuclearfusion
New Build assumes
one new station
completeduntil
each2040
year at
after
2020.not until
nuclear
unavailable
2050 for significant impact
14000
12000
New Build ?
[7.5 - 15]p
Available now: Not
Projected
Coal
currently
~40% but viable without Carbon
unlikely
"Clean10000
Coal"
2.5
3.5p
Actual
scheduled
to fall
Capture &
before 2025
-
?
8000
Sequestration
6000
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new
4000 fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then
transport
2000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2009
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply
in 2020 and drivers/barriers
On Shore Wind
~25% [~15000 x 3
available now for
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
1.5MW Turbine
At peak output provides sufficient electricity for
3000 homes
On average has provided electricity for 700 –
850 homes depending on year
Future prices from
* Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011
Climate Change Committee
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
~25% [~15000 x 3
available now for
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to
25 - 50%
reduce costs.
On Shore Wind
May 2011
2002
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as
being very expensive and recommends reducing planned
expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount
Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but
nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for
2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time
sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
~25% [~15000 x 3
available now for
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to
25 - 50%
reduce costs.
On Shore Wind
May 2011
2002
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
Micro Hydro Scheme operating
on Siphon Principle installed at
Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
Hydro (mini micro)
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
11p for
<2MW
projects
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
May 2011
2002
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~25%
[~15000
x 3 that
available
now
for might be
Climate
Change
Report
suggests
1.6 TWh
(0.4%)
~ 2+p
On Shore
Wind
MW
turbines]
commercial
exploitation
achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW.
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to ~2.5 - 3p
25 - 50%
reduce costs.
Hydro (mini micro)
Photovoltaic
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
<<5% even
available, but much further
assuming 10 GW of research needed to bring down
installation
costs significantly
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
12.5p +/- 2.5
2.5 - 3p
11p for
<2MW
projects
15+ p
25p +/-8
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
~25% [~15000 x 3
available now for
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to
25 - 50%
reduce costs.
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
technically mature, but
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
11p for
<2MW
projects
available, but much further
research needed to bring
down costs significantly
15+ p
25p +/-8
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
depending on
technology
On Shore Wind
Hydro (mini micro)
Photovoltaic
Sewage, Landfill,
Energy Crops/
Biomass/Biogas
5%
<<5% even assuming
10 GW of installation
??5%
May 2011
2002
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
available, but research needed
in some areas e.g. advanced
gasification
To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and
Suffolk devoted solely to biomass
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and 2002 (Gas May 2011
drivers/barriers
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
projects
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10
technology limited Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development not
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
(~0.1%)
4 - 8p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
19p +/- 6
Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and 2002 (Gas May 2011
drivers/barriers
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
projects
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10
techology limited Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development not
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
(~0.1%)
4 - 8p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
19p +/- 6
Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and 2002 (Gas May 2011
drivers/barriers
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
availableSevern
now Barrage/
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Mersey
Barrages
Off Shore
available buthave
costlybeen considered frequently
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009
11p for
Severn Barrage
5-8%
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5could
- 3p provide
<2MW
of UK electricity needs
projects
available, butInvery
Orkney –15+
Churchill
Barriers
Photovoltaic
<<5%
p
25p +/-8
costly
Output ~80 000 GWh per annum available, but research
Sufficient for 13500
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4phouses 7in- 13p
needed
Orkney but there are only 4000 in
currently < 10
technologyOrkney.
limited - Controversy in bringing
19p +/- 6
Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development
not
4 - 8p
Tidal 26.5p
cables south.
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
+/- 7.5p
Wave
Would save 40000 tonnes
of CO
2
(~0.1%)
technology available but unlikely for
2020. Construction time ~10 years.
Tidal Barrages
5 - 15%
26p +/-5
In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and 2002 (Gas May 2011
drivers/barriers
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Wind
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10 MW technology limited Wave/Tidal
19p Tidal
??1000 - 2000 MW major development not
4 - 8p
Stream
26.5p Wave
(~0.1%)
before 2020
Tidal Barrages
Geothermal
5 - 15%
In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development
26p +/-5
unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and 2002 (Gas May 2011
drivers/barriers
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Wind
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10 MW technology limited Wave/Tidal
19p Tidal
??1000 - 2000 MW major development not
4 - 8p
Stream
26.5p Wave
(~0.1%)
before 2020
Tidal Barrages
Geothermal
5 - 15%
In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development
26p +/-5
unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
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Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind
and biomass?.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years.
[very expensive or technically immature or both]
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years
UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee
[9th May 2011]
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation?
>>>>>>
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Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global
Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS
option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making –
not merely be against one technology or another
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Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation
nuclear
new coal
gas
new nuclear
oil
medium renewables
coal
renewables
high renewables
450
billions of kWh
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
We need an integrated energy supply which is diverse and secure.
We need to take Energy out of Party Politics.!
The Behavioural Dimension: Awareness raising
Electricity Consumption
kWh in period
4000
3000
1 person
Social Attitudes towards
energy consumption have a
profound effect on actual
consumption
2 people
2000
3 people
4 people
1000
5 people
0
6 people
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Data collected from 114
houses in Norwich between
mid November 2006 and
mid March 2007
No of people in household
Variation in Electricity Cosumption
% Difference from Average
200%
1 person
4 people
150%
100%
50%
0%
1
-50%
-100%
2 people
5 people
3 people
6 people
For a given size of
household electricity
consumption for appliances
[NOT HEATING or HOT
WATER] can vary by as
much as 9 times.
When income levels are
accounted for, variation is
still 6 times
21
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Good Energy Management/Awareness can reduce consumption.
Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia
45000
Low Energy
Lighting Installed
Consumption (kWh)
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Jan Apr
Jul Oct Jan Apr
2003
•
•
•
•
Jul Oct Jan Apr
2004
Jul Oct
2005
Consumption rose to nearly double level of early 2005.
Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant.
Extra fuel cost £12 000 per annum ~£1000 to repair fault
Additional CO2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes.
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Conclusions
Climate Change and Energy Security Issues will affect UK
increasingly in next decade.
Can be addressed by a combination of:
• Low Carbon Energy Supply
• Effective Awareness and Energy Management;
• Improved Technology to make better use of existing energy.
Management and Improved Technology are key strategies for a low
carbon future.
They will often be MORE cost effective than building more
generation capacity whether it is low carbon or not.
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where
you are heading."
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
http://www.cred-uk.org
follow Academic Resources Link
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