Transcript Representing Uncertainties & Selecting Scenarios

Regional Approaches to Risk
Management
Living with our Changing Climate
IOCI Seminar and Workshop
16 August 2005
Roger N. Jones
Moving from the tactical to strategic
management of climate
Linking climate to adaptation over time
Climate
system
Impacted
activity
Socioeconomic
system
Current
climate
Current
adaptations
Future
climate
Future
adaptations
Risk is a measure of the changing
ability to cope
• Assess current climate risks
– Climate variability
– How have people learnt to cope?
• Assess future climate risks
– Changing climate hazards
– Response between climate change and socioeconomic change
– Estimating exposure to risks within relevant
planning horizons
– Building on historical capacity and developing
new capacities
Scoping phase
If not already established, work with
stakeholders to develop conceptual model of
system
What is the relationship between the hazard,
the impact and vulnerability?
Is there a point (linked to climate) where the
the system ceases to operate in the way you
would like? – critical threshold
Selecting a method
Historical &
current climate risk
Current climate
Future climate risk
Natural hazards
based
Future climate
Current impacts
Future impacts
Coping capacity &
vulnerability
Vulnerability to
untreated risk
Current adaptive
capacity
Policy & plans
without climate
change
Vulnerability /
resilience
based
Developing new
adaptive capacity
Policy based
Prioritising and
implementing
adaptations
Mitigation
Residual risk
Characterisation of hazards
Sector
Climate Hazards
Water
Rainfall amount and variability,
flood, drought
Agriculture
Flood, drought, cool/hot extremes,
Storms, hail, humidity
Health
Hot/wet conditions, temperature
extremes, violent storms, floods, crop
and water shortages
Coasts
Storm surges, wind/wave climates,
pressure extremes, tidal extremes
Biodiversity Fire, flood, drought, storms
What’s my baseline – water resources
Climate records
Storage records
Streamflow records
Operational records
1946
1948
1945
1972
Year
199
0
198
0
197
0
196
0
195
0
194
0
193
0
192
0
1967
191
0
190
0
110 1893
100
1891
90
80
70
1894
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
189
0
Number of stations
Abrupt shifts in Australian rainfall
1890–1990
Total
Positive
Future climate - no adaptation
Vulnerability
(flood)
Coping
range
Vulnerability
(drought)
Future climate with adaptation
Vulnerability
(flood)
Coping
range
Adaptation
Planning horizon
Policy Horizon
Vulnerability
(drought)
2100
2080
2060
2040
2020
2000
Large
dams
Major
urban
i nf ras
tructur
e
I nterg
enera
tional
equity
Longterm b
iodive
Bridge
rsity
design
lif e/f lo
od he
ights
n cycl
es/pro
f it & lo
Agricu
ss
lture (
whole
f arm p
lannin
Plant
g)
breed
ing (ne
w crop
Fores
s)
t lease
ag
Pulp p
lantati reements
on
Gener
ationa s
l succ
ession
New ir
rigatio
n proj
Coast
ects
al/tour
ism in
f rastru
Tree c
cture
rops
Nation
al par
ks
Airpor
t desig
n lif e
Electio
Planning horizons
Average uncertainty
P and Ep change over Australia
(per degree global warming)
10.0
North-east
Change per degree warming (%)
Change per degree warming (%)
North-west
20.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Evaporation
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
NW
Dec
Rainfall
NE
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Evaporation
20.0
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Rainfall
10.0
SW
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Evaporation
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
SE
Change per degree warming (%)
South-east
Rainfall
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Tas
May
Jun
Jul
Evaporation
Tasmania
Change per degree warming (%)
Change per degree warming (%)
South-west
Aug
Rainfall
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Evaporation
Jul
Aug
Rainfall
P and Ep changes for north-western
Australia
Change per degree warming (%)
North-west
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Evaporation
Change per degree global warming
Jul
Aug
Rainfall
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Change per degree warming (%)
P and Ep changes for south-western
Australia
South-west
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Evaporation
Change per degree global warming
Jul
Aug
Rainfall
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Hydrological sensitivity and runoff
co-efficient
5
4
Sensitivity
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
0
10
20
30
40
Runoff (% of rainfall)
Simhyd A
Simhyd B
AWBM A
AWBM B
Zhang01 A
Zhang01 B
50
m
en
ny
C
ar
oa
st
k
R
Ke ive
r
Fr
n
an t R
kl
i
an ver
O
'S
ha d R
nn ive
r
o
W nR
iv
ar
er
re
n
D
on
R
iv
n
er
e
Bl
ac lly
kw Ri
ve
Bu oo
r
ss d R
el
i
to ver
n
Pr
C
es oa
st
to
n
C Riv
ol
lie er
H
ar Riv
M
er
v
ur
ra ey
R
y
i
R
iv ver
er
(
Av WA
on
)
R
Sw
iv
M
er
oo an
C
re
-H o as
ill
t
R
iv
er
s
D
ba
Al
Change in mean annual flow (%)
Simple model of mean flow changes in
2030 – preliminary results
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
System vulnerability (supply & demand)
• Sensitivity to supply changes (climate, land-use, fire)
• Level of utilisation
• Demand projections
Supply change 
Demand change
Current management
Marginal planned
change
Substantial change
Mitigative capacity ←
Assess
risk
No adaptation
Autonomous adaptation
Coping range
Manage
risk
Mitigation
Adaptation
→ Adaptive capacity
Critical
risk
Danger
Autonomous
adaptation
Adapting (generic)
Adapting (specific)
Improve technology access
Institutional reform
Improved equity
Access to information
Build social capital
Access to wealth creation
Mainstreaming adaptation
Natural resource management
New technology
Disaster planning
Retrofit existing structures
Build resilience/resistance
Adapting (transformative)
Replace activity
Abandon activity
Transform activity
Natural hazard-driven approach
Approach
Method
Outcome
Scenarios
Criteria:
• What risks may we face under this projected
scenario(s)?
• Analyse possible outcomes from a given climate
hazard(s) ± other drivers of change
• An understanding of current/future climaterelated risks
• Exploratory scenarios of climate with other
biophysical and socio-economic conditions
–
–
–
–
–
Probabilities of hazard constrained
Main drivers known
Chain of consequences understood
P(Hazard) × Consequences
Largely exploratory
Vulnerability-driven approach
Approach
Method
Outcome
Scenarios
Criteria:
• What is the risk of a specific place, process,
group or activity being harmed?
• Determine the likelihood of critical threshold
exceedance
• Understanding of exposure to harm and
harmful processes
• Characterisation of socio-economic
outcomes; can use climate scenarios or
diagnose exposure through inverse methods
–
–
–
–
Probabilities of hazard not constrained
Many drivers resulting in vulnerability
Multiple pathways and feedbacks
P(Vulnerability)/Hazard (e.g. critical threshold
exceedance)
– Largely normative
Resilience-driven approach
Approach
Method
Outcome
Scenarios
Criteria:
• What advantages can we gain by better
understanding of our current/future
capacities?
• Assess ability to withstand shocks, recover
from setbacks and manage change.
• Better knowledge of coping mechanisms and
socio-political institutions, barriers to
adaptation, increased benefits
• Baseline adaptation, adaptation analogues
from history, other locations other activities
–
–
–
–
–
Impacts and/or vulnerability understood
Evidence of successful adaptation
Benefits thought to be likely
Barriers to adaptation recognised
Risks that require treatment
Policy-driven approach
Approach
Method
Outcome
Scenarios
Criteria:
• How will our current plans for the future be
affected by climate change?
• Assess the efficacy of an existing or proposed
policy under climate change
• Fitter policy under climate change
• Unmanaged climate change impacts and
vulnerability
– Policy aims are sensitive to climate change
– Desire to “mainstream” adaptation