Transcript Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch and their

Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDI
Bundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz
Long records of weather measurements
at Jungfraujoch and their significance
yesterday, today and tomorrow
Simon C. Scherrer
Climate information team, Climate Services
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
Workshop "Spawning the Atmosphere Measurements of Jungfraujoch“
26 November 2008, Bern
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
The beginning… 1 November 1922
Beginning of meteorological observations 1 November 1922
Wednesday, 1 November 1922
 observations for science, weather forecasts and aviation
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
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Yesterday…
measurement site: 1925 – 1937
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
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photo: Fahrni
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Since 1937… and today
solar radiation,
ASRB, GAW, luminosity etc.
CHARM
temperature
THYGAN north
SYNOP obs.
old ANETZ hut (rot.)
wind
temperature
THYGAN south
autom. station since 1981
official SMN station
since 09.10.2007
 values every 10‘
NOTE: no precipitation
+ man. SYNOP program
GAW/CHARM/ASRB
MeteoSwiss SwissMetNet station
parameter
device
pressure
PTB220
radioactivity
TechniData
temperature
2 THYGAN + 1 Rotronic
rel. humidity
2 THYGAN + 1 Rotronic
sunshine
Solar 111B
luminosity
LICOR
SW radiation
CM21
LW radiation
CG4
wind (speed, direction)
METEK
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
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MeteoSwiss measurement networks
the highest permanently manned
meteorological station in Europe
Jungfraujoch
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
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Today… Climate Change
http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/CR_data/Monthly/Hadplot_globe.gif
aus Trenberth 2007
Muir Glacier, Alaska
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
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From yesterday to today…
TM, MétéoSuisse
Photo: Ruedi Wyss
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
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From yesterday to today…
maximum temperature: homogenization amounts 1937-2006
homogenization amounts [°C]
seasonal dependence
of older instruments
replacement of instrument
1K
site relocation and
change of instrument type
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
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instrumental problems
in extreme environment
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Today…  homog. mean temperature
deviation from mean [°C]
1937-2007
1K
mean: -7.9 °C
trend mean temperature: ~0.4 °C / 10y
(since 1961)
northern hemisphere land: ~0.3 °C / 10y
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
[email protected]
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Is the high Alpine region more sensitive to
climate change than the rest of Europe?
 climate records:
mean temperature trends
 inter-annual variability
 thawing days
The Fauna of the Swiss Alps.
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
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regional distribution of trends
annual mean temperature 1961-2006
Jungfraujoch
filled circles: significant trends (5% level)
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
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vertical distribution of seasonal mean
temperature trends 1961-2006
Jungfraujoch
grey:
averaged
topography
Appenzeller et al. (2008)
filled circles: significant trends (5% level)
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
[email protected]
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Is the high Alpine region more sensitive to
climate change than the rest of Europe?
 climate records:
mean temperature trends
 inter-annual variability
today …
 thawing days tomorrow
The Fauna of the Swiss Alps.
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
[email protected]
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Interannual (year-to-year) variability
in Swiss Alpine winter climate
Savognin 1990
Davos 1999
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
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The European Winter patterns (dynamics)
North Atlantic
Oscillation
Atlantic
Blocking
European
Blocking
leading sea level pressure patterns (60W-40E, 30N-80N), DJF 1958-1999
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
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How well can we explain the winter
temperature variability at Jungfraujoch?
„Mittelland“
Alps
Atlantic
Blocking
European
Blocking
Atlantic
Blocking
NAO
Säntis
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
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“high fog” on the Swiss plateau
Photo: Ruedi Wyss
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
[email protected]
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Is the high Alpine region more sensitive to
climate change than the rest of Europe?
 climate records:
mean temperature trends
 inter-annual variability
 thawing days tomorrow …
The Fauna of the Swiss Alps.
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
[email protected]
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Permafrost in Switzerland
potential distribution of permafrost based on DHM25 modelling (BAFU 7/06)
full thawing days = days with Tmin > 0°C
source: Federal Office of environment (BAFU)
legend:
local permafrost possible
widespread permafrost likely
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
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Annual count of full thawing days
48
full thawing days per year
Jungfraujoch (1960 - July 2006)
2003
logit-fitted trend: 0.55 d/yr, p-value: 0.02
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
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Projected changes in mean temperature
Switzerland (CH2050 Project)
from C. Frei (2006)
change wrt 1990,
Median and 95% confidence
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
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Probability for Tmin > 0°C at Jungfraujoch
3500
altitude [m asl]
3000
2500
2000
today: ~15 %
2050: ~40% (range: 30-60%)
1500
1000
x3
500
20
40
60
occurence [%]
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
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80
100
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Summary
 Yesterday…
•
•
frontier: extreme weather and climate conditions
high altitude observations for weather forecasts and aviation
 Today…
•
•
•
•
•
highest permanently manned meteorological station in Europe
homog. long time series of high altitude climate for global change issues
Jungfraujoch mean temperature increased by ~0.4 °C / 10y since 1961
mean temperature changes similar to lower Swiss stations
but: large scale influences very different from lowland stations
 Tomorrow…
•
•
•
continuation of JUN station
(JUN is part of the new SwissMetNet operated by MeteoSwiss)
expected climate change impacts in Alpine region sensitive to “user group”
simple estimates suggest probability of full thawing days will increase
roughly by a factor 3 in 2050 (from <15% to ~40%)!
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
[email protected]
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Thanks for your attention
Appenzeller, C., Zenklusen, E., Begert, M., Scherrer, S.C.,
2008: Monitoring climate at Jungfraujoch in the high Swiss
Alpine region. Science of the total environment. 391, 262268. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2007.10.005
Photo: Ruedi Wyss
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop
[email protected]
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