Transcript From research to end-users services at Meteo

From Research to
End-users Services
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at Meteo-France
Isabelle DONET / METEO-FRANCE
End-Users Services Department
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(Béatrice Pouponneau Deputy Manager for General Studies & Consultancy
Grégoire Pigeon Manager for Agro meteorological services)
World Weather Open Science Conference
18th of August 2014
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Summary
 The “End-Users Services” department of METEO-FRANCE
 Illustration of 4 outstanding past or imminent users services for
decision making
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ISOP system (grassland yield assessment)
Explore 2070 project (climate change on water ressources)
AFClim prospective (adaptation scenarios for Agriculture and Forestry)
Acclimat future operational platform and use (Urban Heat Islands)
 Upcoming perspectives for end-users in the near future
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End-Users Services at METEO-FRANCE
 Dedicated department in METEO-FRANCE since 1997 including:
 A specialized Agro meteorology division
 A specialized Environment, Air Quality and Health division
 A consultancy and studies division (main users/topics: Army, Energy
suppliers, downscaling methods and impacts of climate change)
 Coordinating a network of 11 regional consultancy offices (close to
the users) to share methods, tools and workload
 7 in the metropolitan area
 4 overseas
 Close collaboration and relationship with:
 The research center of Meteo-France
 The end-users to know, understand and fulfill their needs in weather
sensitive domains
 Providing integrated applications or high-value products using
advances from the latest research
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ISOP : fodder yield anomaly assessment
 Operational system for public authorities (the French Ministry of
Agriculture):
 To support their monitoring and decision-making activities
 On the production of grasslands
 At the level of small regions in France
 Close collaboration between INRA (French Agronomy Research
Center), METEO-FRANCE and SCEES (Department of Statistics of
the Ministry)
 Conception and development of an integrated platform:
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Complex meteorological data handling with downscaling methods
INRA crop yield model STICS, 2009 version
Soil characteristics of grassland areas
Regional practices from SCEES for 8600 parcels
 Outputs : statistics, indexes & graphical outputs
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ISOP scheme and outputs
Reference and
historical Data
Real-time data
Meteo France
interpolated data
SCEES « practices » data
(8600 parcels)
INRA Crop
model
Soil data of INRA
Scale 1/1 000 000
Results available on the Ministry website in real-time:
Agreste
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Explore 2070
 Impact of climate change on underground water resources and river
flows in France (mainland and overseas) by 2070
 At the request of the French Ministry of Ecology
 To inform government authorities and private operators in the water
sector of the condition of water resources in the future
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Between the 1961-1990 reference period and the 2046-2065 period
For mainland France and overseas departments
On the basis of the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario
Seven general circulation models regionally downscaled
Two hydrological models (Isba-Modcou and GR4J)
 Main results:
 Increase in air temperature between +1.4°C and +3°C
 Significant decrease (10% to 40%) of mean annual flows at the country
scale
 Strong decrease in summer low flows in most basins
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Possible evolution between 1961/90 and 2046/65
Annual mean flow
- 30 à - 50 % [+- 20 %]
- 20 à - 30 % [+- 20 %]
- 40 à - 50 % [+- 20 %]
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AFCLIM prospective
 Exploration of adaptation scenarios for agriculture and forestry to
imagine solutions enabling farmers and foresters to mitigate climate
change
 Group of experts created by the Center of studies and strategic
foresight of the French Ministry of Agriculture
 14 tangible case studies (winegrowing, livestock, industrial crops,
forests, …)
 Timeframes for agriculture through 2050 and for forestry through
2100 (longer silvicultural cycles)
 Elaboration of synthesis sheets focused on the concrete and local
aspects of climate change, in order to present adaptation initiatives
that farmers and foresters will be able to manage (cycles lengths,
yields, water, crop risks)
 All outputs available on the government website: AFCLIM
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AFCLIM prospective
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Urban Heat Island (UHI) operational tool
 Need of modelling and consultancy facilities to support public
policies aiming at reducing urban heat in a changing climate
 Current action to transform the demonstrator done by he
research center during the Acclimat project (Toulouse city) in an
operational “generic” system
 Simplification of the complete research version
 Web version available for our internal network of regional
consultancy offices
 Suitable for others cities
 In a short term, a wide consultancy offer on UHI:
 Study for a few days: state of the art, relevant cases
 Study of some weeks: qualitative analyses of the UHI, campaigns,
1D et 2D simulations forced by downscaled climatic projections
 Project on several months: 4D mesoscale simulations, city urban
modification  Marseille city illustration
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Marseille EUROMED project
Amenagement Guide Map
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Upcoming perspectives for end-users
 200-years (present and in 2050) “constant climate” simulation
 For energy suppliers of insurances
 To study variability and extremes
 Air quality tools and applications
 UV indexes declined from the last version of Mocage Air Quality model
 Dispersion studies for authorities (cities) or pollutant industry
 Real-time nebulosity and rainfall assessment for Internet satellite
reception stations (based on nowcasting model) to anticipate lacks
of reception (due to weather) and manage such networks
 Ensemble forecasts to issue flood warnings in the south-east of
France (Cévennes) through a multi-model approach
 Integration of AROME meteorological model (50 members), soil
moisture ISBA model, ANTILOPE radar-gauge rainfall grid estimates
 A new integrated crop system in partnership with the Arvalis
Institute using seasonal forecasts
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