Transcript Driving for Clean Air

Reducing Passenger
Vehicle GHG Emissions
Tom Cackette
California Air Resources Board
SEI Roundtable
Next Steps Post-Kyoto: U.S. Options
Session 1: Where Are We Now?
Climate Change In CA
Climate Change in CA
Past 100 Years
Higher temperature (0.7 °F)
 Sea level rise (3-8 inches)
 Spring run-off decrease (12%)

1984
2002
Climate Change in CA
Next 100 Years

Temperature increase 7 to 10 oF
– Heat stress related deaths

Sea level rise 11 to 16 inches
– Property damage
– Saltwater contamination of fresh water supply

Sierra snow pack reduced 73 to 89 percent
– Winter/spring flooding
– Not enough irrigation water in summer
Pavley Bill
Signed by Governor - 2002
 Requires reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions

– New passenger vehicles sold in California
– 2009+ models
– Maximum feasible reduction
– Cost beneficial to consumer
Clear Public Support
“What about the state law
that requires all automakers
to further reduce the
emissions of greenhouse
gases from new cars in
California by 2009? Do you
support or oppose this
law?”
2004:
81% support
2003:
80% support
2002:
81% support
Vehicle Sources of
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
CO2
Methane
Nitrous Oxide
Catalyst
Engine
Transmission
A/C compressor
HFCs
CO2
Available Technologies
to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
2005 Chrysler 300C Hemi
6%1
Cylinder Deactivation
Audi TT
3.2 V6
7%
Automated Manual Transmission
Audi TT
1
% CO2 reduction, large car
Available Technologies
to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Acura RSX
Honda Accord
Variable valve timing & lift
4%
Toyota Matrix
Available Technologies
to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Gasoline Direct Injection
w/dual cam phasers
2005 Audi
1%
BMW Valvetronic
(continuously variable valve timing & lift)
6%
Volvo S60
8%
Turbocharger
w/ engine downsize
BMW 5 Series
Emerging Technologies
to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
4%
2005 Chevrolet Silverado
Integrated Starter/Generator
6%
Homogeneous Combustion
Compression Ignition
16%
Camless valve actuation
Fleet Average
Emission Standards
Tier
Near-term
Mid-term
1
Year
CO2-equivalent emission
standards (g/mi)
PC/LDT1
LDT2
323
301
267
233
227
222
213
205
439
420
390
361
355
350
341
332
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Compared to 2002 models
~22% reduction
in 20121
~30% reduction
in 20161
Regulation Reduces CA
Climate Change Emissions*
LDV CO2 1000s ton/day
700
600
500
400
300
-19%
-27%
2020
2030
Status quo
Regulation
200
100
0
2004
2010
*
Fleetwide
Average Price Increase of
New, Low GHG Vehicles
Retail Vehicle Price Increase
Model
Year
2012
22% less GHG
Passenger Cars
Large Trucks/SUVs
Small Trucks/SUVs
$367
$277
Average Price Increase of
New, Low GHG Vehicles
Retail Vehicle Price Increase
Model
Year
2012
22% less GHG
2016
30% less GHG
Passenger Cars
Large Trucks/SUVs
Small Trucks/SUVs
$367
$277
$1064
$1029
Net Savings for
Vehicle Purchaser
2012
Models
Monthly Payment
Increase
$7
Monthly Operating
Cost Savings
$18
Monthly Net Savings
$11
Net Savings for
Vehicle Purchaser
2012
Models
2016
Models
Monthly Payment
Increase
$7
$20
Monthly Operating
Cost Savings
$18
$23
Monthly Net Savings
$11
$3
Economic Impacts

More jobs

Higher income

Positive impacts on low income
communities

Increase in number of businesses

Slightly lower smog emissions

Vehicle sales (~4% lower after 2015)
(53,000)
($5 billion/year)
(3 tpd)
Further Information
California Air Resources Board
Tom Cackette
[email protected]
916-322-2892
Chuck Shulock
[email protected]
916-322-6964