Transcript 1 - Australian Sustainable Development Institute

What can we
expect from
Copenhagen ?
Ian Lowe
30 Nov. 2009
Living in the Greenhouse, 1989
•
•
•
•
Increasing average temperatures
Drier in southern Australia
Wetter in northern Australia
More frequent extremes: floods,
cyclones, extended dry spells,
heatwaves, severe bushfires
• Spread of vector-borne diseases
February 2009
• Extreme heatwaves in SA &
Victoria
• Devastating Victorian bushfires
• Cyclonic events hit northern
coasts
• Severe flooding in Qld, NSW
• Dengue outbreak Cairns, > 350
cases
It is getting hotter
Global warming is affecting Australia today
Arctic Sea Ice Melting
IPCC central
projection
Satellite
observations
projection
Bjeknes Centre
for Climate
Research,
Svalbard,
Norway (2008)
Climate Change Denial
a) Climate not changing
b) Changed but now stabilised
c) Changed but it always changes
d) Changed but no human cause
e) Climate changed, benefits > costs
Earth is overheating
“There is now compelling
evidence that both the extent
and the impacts of climate
change are likely to be at the
higher end of the range
projected by the IPCC”
– Australian Climate Group 2008
Ban Ki Moon said:
“We need - policy that puts a price on
carbon...
- global investment
programme for renewable energy...
- creative solutions to protect
forests and other ecosystems...
“we still face inertia... We need rapid
progress”
“seal the deal in Copenhagen”
Latest science and politics
• Rapid changes in Arctic
• Signs of positive feedback
• COPenhagen signs
• China ? USA ? 50% of the
problem
IPCC chair Rajendra Pachauri
“Every country in the
world has to be
committed to a shared
vision and a set of
common goals and
actions … help us move
toward a much lower
level of emissions”
Why are our emissions so high ?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
> 85% power from coal
Inefficient appliances, stand-by…
Poor building standards
Push for air-conditioning
Inefficient cars, high dependence
Meat-intensive diet
Land clearing
“lifestyle”
Subsidising wasteful practices
Australia’s
Emissions (Mt)
1200
Where we
are now
heading
Business As
Usual
1000
800
600
What we
need to
achieve
Kyoto target
400
200
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Energy
Transport
Agriculture
Land clearing
2030
2040
2050
Fugitive, waste and
industrial processes)
Source: Adapted from the Australian Greenhouse
Gas Inventory and ABARE projections
JSCT report, 19.03.2009
• Australia should aim to cut
emissions 80 per cent by 2050
• Australia should support a global
goal to stabilise atmospheric CO2
level at 450 ppm or less
Scale & Rate of Change
• 2010 emissions ~10% above 1990
[accepting “Australia clause”]
• If 2050 target 50% below, 15%
per decade
• If 2050 target 90% below, 25%
per decade
IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
“nothing short
of an energy
revolution”
Renewables as practical answer
• NERDDC Paper 2, 1992: by 2020,
30% electricity, increasing cost by
1 c/kWh; by 2030, all power, extra
4.5 c/kWh
• Bright Future: 25% by 2020 would
cost average household $1.25/week
[and produce 17000 new jobs]
A responsible
Australian position
• Serious 2020 reduction target [50% ?]
• Additionally, fund reductions in nearby
developing countries
• Work toward carbon neutral by 2050
• Positive role in lead-up to Copenhagen
Recent polling showed only 35 per
cent thought we should delay action
because of the state of the global
economy. Only 24 per cent of
swinging voters backed delay. 75
per cent of voters believed tackling
climate change created opportunities
for new jobs and investment in
clean forms of energy.
- Climate Institute, Canberra Times, 12 March 2009
Copenhagen: minimum outcomes
Framework for post – 2012
Commitment by OECD nations
Broad intent from developing
Funding to help transition
Desirable outcomes
Binding agreements
Targets, timetables
Real commitment
Hard cash on table
Technology transfer
SEND A
MESSAGE
TO YOUR
MP !
Think Global,
Act Local
Copenhagen’s cycle network
• Copenhagen’s active transport goals:
–
–
–
–
50% of people travel to work or places of learning by bike
80% of cyclists will feel safe in traffic conditions
Increase amount of walking by 20% compared to 2009 levels
Reduce cyclist serious injuries and death by half of 2009 levels
• Achievements to date:
– 36% of people already travel to work or places of learning by bike
– 60% of people use a bike for all trips
– 60% reduction in cyclist serious injuries or death on 1995 levels
• How:
– A$11 - 21 million per year for infrastructure, traffic safety improvements
and education campaigns
• Could this be done in Australia?
– Literature indicates YES provided government commitment, investment
and other complementary measures
Vision for a Sustainable City
Sustainability
Sustainability is about living within our means. It is about managing our consumption of resources and balancing
environmental, economic and social outcomes. It means improving our quality of life, but making that improvement
without leaving a burden on the future generations.
Looking after
our
Environment
Environmental Sustainability
is about reducing our impact
on the environment by
protecting our air, water and
land, our native flora and
fauna. It means reducing the
load on our natural
resources, such as water
and fuels for energy, and
decreasing our production of
waste.
Environmental
Liveable
Just
Sustainable
Healthy
Efficient
A Better Place
to Live
Liveability is about
making Sydney a better
place to live. It means
being able to walk to
your corner shop, local
school, park or bus stop,
as well as providing us
with a choice of housing
that meets our needs.
Competitive
Supporting our Economy
Competitiveness is about supporting Sydney's role as a Global city, and ensuring our city's long term economic prosperity.
It means providing quality infrastructure and services to service our jobs and the economy, and supporting urban centres
S O C I E TY
ENVIRT
ECONOMY
SOCIETY
ECOLOGY
Photo: NASA
Questions ?