Transcript 1950-2100
Status of the RCM climate change simulations ERA40 driven MPIM-RCM ERA40 driven MPIM-RCM Max 3-day precip (mm) MPIM RCM and ECA Data Evaluation of RCM simulations with HOAPS satellite data Biases of all ERA40 and GCM driven RCM simulations over sea investigated – see poster 27 Liquid + ice water, water vapour, precipitation, net longwave radiation, sensible and latent heat flux. All results soon on RT3 webpage From RT3: ● Validated set of RCMs ● Weights for RCMs ● Suggestions how to use the weights for climate change runs RT2B1 GCM-RCM Matrix Global model Regional METO-HC model METO-HC 1950-2100*** MPIMET CNRM DMI ETH 1950-2050 KNMI ICTP SMHI UCLM C4I MPIMET IPSL CNRM NERSC CGCM3 1950-2100 1950-2100 1950-2050* 1950-2050* 1950-2100 1950-2100 1950-2050* 1950-2050* (50km) 1950-2050 1950-2050* 1950-2100* (A2) Total number 4 2 1 2 1 1 1 1950-2050 1950-2100 1950-2100 GKSS** 1950-2050* Met.No** 1950-2050* CHMI** 1950-2050* OURANOS** 1950-2050* Total (19507 7 2 3 2 1 2050) *: non-contractual runs **: affiliated partners without obligations ***: 3 simulations with the perturbed physics METO-HC GCM 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 22 Status of obligatory 25km scenario simulations Institute Runs completed resp. expected date Runs transferred to the RCM database resp. expected date METO-HC MPI-M HC pert. phys. (3 runs): completed MPI-M Forcing:? MPI-M Forcing: completed Transferred End 2008 (latest Aug. 2009) Transferred CNRM Completed Transferred DMI CNRM Forcing:? Partly ETH Completed Transferred KNMI Completed Transferred ICTP Completed Transferred SMHI NERSC Forcing: Completed ? UCLM Completed Transferred The RT2B1 Quick-Look Analysis Objectives of the ”Quick look analysis”: To monitor the scenario simulations progress and quality of the RT2B RCM scenario simulations To provide very fast first information on the results of the RCM scenarios The quick look analysis is focusing on trends and variability Variables: Areas: 2m Temperature, Precipitation, Evaporation 8 Prudence Regions Yearly and Seasonal means Annual cycle for each decade The „Quick-Look“ Analysis has recently been extended: Separate land and water driving GCM‘s Inclusion of the gridded RT5 observational dataset Plots on the ENSEMBLES RT3 webpage will be updated soon! MPIM RCM, T and P changes for DJF MPIM RCM, T and P changes for JJA JJA mean warming wrt 1961-1990 4 ENSEMBLES RCMs: MPI, ETH, KNMI, C4I IAC ETH 8 PRU RCMs Erich Fischer (2008) Daily temperature variability in JJA wrt 1961-1990 4 ENSEMBLES RCMs: MPI, ETH, KNMI, C4I IAC ETH 8 PRU RCMs Erich Fischer (2008) JJA diurnal temperature range wrt 1961-1990 4 ENSEMBLES RCMs: MPI, ETH, KNMI, C4I IAC ETH 8 PRU RCMs Erich Fischer (2008) From RT2B1: Set of transient simulations for SRES A1B scenario for 1950 to 2050 (22), some extended until 2100 (10) Data at DMI data base In RT2B: From RT2B1 and RT3: matrix with RCM data and RCM weights available (incl suggestion for their use) Joint pdfs will be calculated for use in RT6 … Assessment of impacts through eg the calculation of indices Assessment of changes in climate, extremes and associated sectoral impacts using high resolution regional climate model scenarios for the Eastern Mediterranean Giannakopoulos C.(1), E. Kostopoulou(1), K.Tolika(2), C.Anagnostopoulou(2), P.Maheras(2), K.Tziotziou(1) (1) Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Greece (2) Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece Method Within the framework of the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project several RCMs runs have been produced at a high horizontal resolution (25km). The control run represents the base period 1961-1990 and is used here as reference for comparison with future predictions for periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 based on A1B SRES scenario Aim is to examine climatic changes in both mean (temperature, precipitation) and extremes (number of heat wave days, number of tropical nights, drought length) in order to identify areas that are likely to undergo large amount of climate change Summer Maximum temperatures, KNMI RCM In summer, maximum temperatures increase by 1.8-2.2oCfor the 2021-2050 simulation and by 4-6oCfor 2071-2100 Greece and North Africa will have a more intense heating during 2021-2050 whereas Turkey will have equally intense heating during both periods No of tropical nights : Tmin>20oC KNMI RCM Tropical nights increase more in costal areas 1-2 more months with warm nights around the islands and North Africa for 2021-2050 2.5-3 more months with warm nights around the islands and North Africa for 2021-2050 Dry spell length KNMI RCM for the 2021-2050 simulation increases of about 7% (of about 10 days more) are apparent for the 2071-2100 the increase varies between 12% (about 15 days more) in the east part and 25% (about 1 month more) in the west part of the island.