Transcript Impacts of Climate Change, Vulnerability and Adaptation Capacity in

Impacts of Climate Change,
Vulnerability & Adaptation
Capacity in the Limpopo Basin
Part of Botswana
Opha Pauline Dube
Department of Environmental science
University of Botswana
From right Mogodisheng Sekhwela, Eagilwe
Segosebe, Ben Acquah, Naomi Moswete, P. Kenabatho,
B.P. Parida, seated in front, Sennye Masike and Elisha Toteng
and far back, Pauline Dube.
Aim:
- Build capacity in Assessing Impacts of
Climate Change
- Provide a pool of locally relevant
information on:
Impacts of Climate Change on food and Water,
The degree of vulnerability & the capacity to adapt to
climate change in the Limpopo basin
locally based adaptation strategies & how these can be
enhance
Overall goal: Assist decision makers and
international efforts to address climate change
impacts, vulnerability& adaptation
Limpopo Basin
North East District – 11/01/01
North East District
1000
Rainfall(mm)
800
600
400
200
0
1915 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999
Years
Rainfall
M ean
Bobirwa Sub-District
Rainfall (mm)
Bobonong Village
1100
900
700
500
300
100
1964
1968
1972
1976
1983
Years
Rainfall
1987
1991
1995
1999
Kgatleng
District Site
Why Limpopo Basin?
• One of the 5 largest surface water bodies in subSaharan Africa found in Southern Africa - covers
3720 000 km2 of Bots., Zim., SA & Mozambique.
• Subjected to frequent climate extremes e.g.:1991/92
droughts & the 1999/2000 floods.
• Forms all river systems in eastern Botswana - Major
source of water and alluvial deposits for >70% of
rainfed and irrigation agriculture.
• Over half of Botswana’s population and major urban
growth centres occur in the Limpopo Basin
Study Components and Inter-relationships
Climate Change
Rainfall
Temp
Crops/Forests
Water
Supply
Fire
Livestock
Nature
Tourism
Wildlife
Valuation +
Vulnerability Assessment
Water
Demand
Human Population
Land Use/Cover
Change
Adaptation Strategies
Options
General Questions:
• What will be the impact of climate Change on
food and water in the Limpopo Basin?
• How vulnerable is food production/ food security
and water supply to climate change?
• What is the adaptation capacity/options for
communities in the Limpopo basin?
Basic Approach:
• Establish past (20 years) and current status
• Model future trends - 20 years - under climate change
• Use findings from 1 and 2 determine vulnerability discuss results with communities and other
stakeholders.
• Work out adaptation strategies and implementation
schemes at different levels – includes active
stakeholder participation.
• Communicate results widely in the basin at national,
regional and international level.
General objectives:
• Establish past & present status of food (F) production,
water (W) supply & demand in the Basin
• Establish past & recent responses to climate variability
in the F & W sectors.
• Determine impacts of climate change (CC) on W & F using a
range of IPCC based climate & national socio-economic
scenarios.
• Establish the level of vulnerability of Limpopo basin to CC on
the F & W sectors
• Determine indigenous adaptation capacity & mitigation options
against adverse impacts
• Contribute in increasing awareness to CC issues in
southern Africa
Acquisition of relevant local scale data – A time
consuming process
• Climate data – in digital format & available within a short
time - this is exceptional
• For other data sets the situation is different –
• Phane caterpiller- No production figures for such forest
products
- Phane export figures from Government’s Customs &
Excise Dept. are aggregated with other exported different types
of small protein sources.
- Original Phane records are destroyed every 3 Yrs -lack of
storage & computerisation.
• Livestock Wildlife - locality statistics is lost -Aggregates over
administration regions, not in digital form are kept
-Problem of a basin study – the administrative regions
usually overlap with other areas outside the basin.
Fire data
- No system of archiving fire data although visual based fire
reports are made every year.
- Existing records are inconsistent, incomplete in terms of
seasons or for a particular fire report & available for recent years
- 1996-2001
- Areal extent and location of burn are only rough estimates.
20.1
15.1
hactares
10.1
5.1
Locations
Estimates of Area burnt Francistown region
op
i
M
at
je
di
ng
sil
o
M
at
as
he
Sh
Ta
tisi
Es
ta
te
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Pa
ta
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m
at
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0.1
D
itl
Area burnt (ha)
25.1
Kgatleng site fires records accessible from ARB - April-June 2002
Place
Out
break
Date
Area
(km)
Repoter
Cause
Control
Remarks
/
Monametsana
25-04
-
PoliceMochudi
Not
known
Same dayPolice
&Volteers
CostP196putting out
Dikgonne/Masu
athaga
16/05
-
PoliceMochudi
Not
Known
17/05-local
&Botswana
Police,
Volteers &
Wildlife
employees
Cost –
P7704.30
to put out
Morwa/Ditejwa
ne
26/05
-
No data
Not
known
Public on
27/05
-
* Current fire management systems is in-effective – If fire
incidents increase in future communities will be vulnerable
Some progress
• Water supply: Past climate, evaporation and soil data assembled
and a stable research assistant secured.
• Some Results: Declining trend in annual rainfall over 28 years but
no clear trend for runoff coefficient.
• Water Demand: Hardcopy information converted to digital form.
Results from one site:
1500000
1000000
500000
overall water
demand
99
19
95
19
92
19
r
0
Ye
a
total water
demand in Cubic
meters
overall water demand
years
• Domestic sector - 50% of water demand & within this Private
Connections takes over 70%
Phane Exports inStudy Areas
Phane
Caterpiller –
400
adaptation
300
Dry Phane (tons)
option for periods
of crop failure
350
250
Bobonong
Francistown
200
Selibe Phikwe
150
100
50
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
Production Season
Table 2. Prices of common crops (1993/94 prices) compared to Phane (1992-94)
Product
Yield (kg/ha)
Sorghum (3ha)
Maize (3ha)
Beans (3ha)
Millet (3ha)
Phane
Grapple (Devil's Claw)
132
46
86
142
7 bags x 32 kg
Produce (kg)
400
138
258
426
224
Price (P/kg) Income (P)
0.39
0.36
0.85
0.31
4.71
156.00
49.68
219.30
132.06
1055.04
Host Mophane plant in Southern Africa
Fig. 5
Phane caterpillar = Larvae of Imbrasia belina Westwood moth
(Emperor Moth) (Lepidoptera: Saturniidae)
Fig. 1
(Ditlhogo, 1996)
**The reproduction cycle is sensitive to climate
Vulnerability and adaptation
• Eco-tourism: An MSc students works on potential of
ecotourism in the basin.
• Results- The basin is rich in cultural heritage sites but these
under utilized.
- Flourishing tourism is wildlfe based -has limited direct
benefit to local communities
• Institutions & Policy: Msc student focusing on: Institutional
and policy framework impact on vulnerability and
adaptation capacity
• Results- Most policies do not consider vulnerability to climate.
- There are some short-term drought relief schemes
implemented from time to time
- Another MSc student - Sources of rural livelihoods vulnerability and adaption to drought over time
Vulnerability and adaptation sections provide a
gateway to access & involving stakeholder
• Other links to stakeholders & National
Communications:
•
Stakeholder meeting - June 2002
• AF42 – participated in 1st Meeting of the GEF/SGP on Climate
Change Networking Group linked to the National Climate
Change Committee (NCCC)
• AF42 PI represents the University of Botswana (UB) at NCCC
& also at the National Conservation Strategy Board
• Research Permit – comments from Office of the Presidents
• At a regional – information on AF42 disseminated via
the Southern Africa Network – AF42 fire component
Constrains
• Internet services
• IT services
• Institutional backing
• Manpower resources
Next Focus of the study:
• Determine impacts of climate change (CC) on
Water & Food
Climate & socio-economic
scenarios.
• Establish the level of vulnerability of Limpopo
basin communities to CC on the Food & Water
• Work out adaptation strategies & mitigation
options against adverse impacts