Transcript INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE

Carbon dioxide capture and storage in a
climate change perspective
The current state of insights from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Heleen de Coninck
Technical Support Unit IPCC WG III (Mitigation)
Trondheim, October 26th, 2004
OSPAR Workshop: The Environmental Impact of Placement of
Carbon Dioxide in Geological Structures in the Maritime Area
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
About IPCC
Established by WMO and UNEP 1988:
• Assess scientific, technical and socio-economic
information on climate change, impacts and
options for adaptation and mitigation
• Publication of reports
• No research, no monitoring, no recommendations
• Policy relevant but not policy prescriptive
• Extensive review processes of its reports
• Support to UNFCCC
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
About IPCC: organisation
WMO/UNEP
IPCC
IPCC Chair
IPCC Bureau
Working group I
Science
Technical Support Unit
UK
Working Group II
Impact and Adaptation
Technical Support Unit
USA
Working Group III
Mitigation
Technical Support Unit
Netherlands
Task Force on
National GHG inventories
Technical Support Unit
Japan
Co-chairs WGIII: Ogunlade
Davidson
(Sierra
Co-ordination
SR
on Leone) &
Bert Metz (Netherlands)
CO2 capture and storage
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Why are IPCC publications
so influential?
• World-wide effort to gather and combine all views
and information on climate change
• Broad involvement of scientists
• Extensive review process
• Based on consensus - if no consensus reached, all
opinions to be reflected in report
• Report: owned by authors
• Summary for Policymakers (SPM): owned by
governments
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Convincing evidence…
Source: IPCC
TAR, 2001
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
…that the climate is changing…
temperature rise (°C)
Source: IPCC
TAR, 2001
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
… and impacts seem inevitable
I: Unique and threatened systems
Source: IPCC
II: Extreme climate events
III: Distribution
TAR, 2001
IV: Aggregate impacts
V: Large-scale
discontinuities
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE
CHANGE
(IPCC)
Impacts of CO2 emissions and
climate change
• Temperature rise
• Changing precipitation patterns; flooding;
landslides
• Sea level rise
• Melting of glaciers
• Ecological consequences
• Consequence for farming, especially in developing
countries
• Slow acidification of the oceans by take-up of
atmospheric CO2
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What can be done?
• Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations at
levels of 450 ppmv (or 550, 650, 750?)
• Reduction of emissions of CO2 and other
greenhouse gases
• Fossil fuel combustion main cause of CO2
emissions
• World energy supply likely to remain dominated
by fossil fuels until at least 2050
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What can be done?
Source: IPCC
TAR, 2001
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What can be done?
• Energy efficiency
• Decarbonisation
– energy sources
– CO2 capture and storage
• Biological carbon sequestration
• Reducing other greenhouse gases from
industry, agriculture, waste management
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What does IPCC tell us on
capture and storage of CO2?
IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001): a “new mitigation
technology”
• “Serious mitigation option”
• Capacity not restraining (~ 5700 GtCO2)
• Costs are estimated competitive with other mitigation
options at ca. 40 – 60 US$/tCO2
• Safety and verification noted as problems
• Significant cost reductions for achieving stabilisation
scenarios
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What does IPCC tell us on
capture and storage of CO2?
Energy and economic models seem to agree on a number
of broad principles:
– Relatively small niche market for CCS technologies
in the absence of a CO2 emissions mandate
– CCS technologies’ deployment accelerates as carbon
permit prices rise
– Ultimate deployment of this class of technologies
could be massive, depending on the stabilisation
scenario assumptions
Dooley, 2002
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What does IPCC tell us on
capture and storage of CO2?
Conclusions IPCC Workshop on carbon
dioxide capture and storage (November
2002):
• Environmental impacts of geological storage
likely small, but not well characterised
• Progress expected in the near future
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What does IPCC tell us on
capture and storage of CO2?
Conclusions IPCC Workshop on carbon
dioxide capture and storage (November
2002):
• Literature basis growing rapidly
• CCS important enough to deserve good
assessment
• More attention needed for barriers and
uncertainties
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Contents IPCC SRCCS
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Legal framework in the SRCCS?
• Assessment requested by the IPCC Plenary
• Interpretation still uncertain: legal literature
not unambiguous
• Giving one interpretation would be policy
prescriptive
• Legal section will be highlighting the
difficulties, not providing a solution
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Timing of the SRCCS
• January – March 2005: Government and Expert
Review
• End of April: last Lead Author meeting
• July: Final Draft finished
• August: Government Review of the Summary for
Policymakers
• End of September: IPCC Approval session
• Presentation to UNFCCC at COP-11 (November
2005)
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
More information?
• IPCC Workshop in Regina: Proceedings
• IPCC in general: www.ipcc.ch
If you would like to be an Expert Reviewer:
Leave your card or contact me: [email protected]
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)