Transcript Coastal zone vulnerability - global change SysTem for Analysis

Climate Change Vulnerability:
An Overview
Thomas E. Downing
SEI Oxford Office
[email protected]
Outline
• Concepts matter: where you start determines
where you end up
• Linking broadscale vulnerability and
sustainable livelihoods
• Integration: Integrated vulnerability
assessment is possible, but best conducted
at the local to regional level
• Opportunities in Trieste
Linking science and policy:
Who wants information on vulnerability?
• Where are the vulnerable?
– Targeting geographical region, socio-economic class
• Who are vulnerable?
– Livelihoods at-risk
• What should be done?
– Link climate policy to sustainable development
• What is the future of vulnerability?
– Exposure to global change, policy impacts
Adaptation space
Policy
Global
CLIMATE CONVENTION:
DEVELOPMENT:
Social vulnerability:
Local
C
Additionality
B
Implementation
State
Private
ACTORS:
Risk management
Sustainable livelihoods
A: Farm agro-technology
B: National agricultural development
C: International trade and markets
Uses of vulnerability assessments
Scale
Indices
National
comparisons of
vulnerability
International
Regional
Multiple dimension
profiles of regional
vulnerability
Profiles of vulnerable situations
or syndromes
Local
Ecosystems
Users
Water
Other
sectors
Food
UNFCCC:
Eligibility for
adaptation
funding
Regional
agencies:
Programme
design
Local offices:
Project evaluation
Health
Settlement
Cost of climatic disasters
GDP pc
USA
Argentina
Honduras
Nicaragua
29,267
8,214
790
433
<0.1%
6%
20%
Aid/GDP
Historical loss,
$M
Loss pc
45,181
2,432
3,690
961
169
68
617
205
Loss/income pc
<1%
1%
78%
47%
Loss/Gross
Domestic
Savings
3.6%
4.1%
359%
1677%
Source: Paul Freeman et al., IIASA and World Bank (2001)
Cost of disasters in Nicaragua
Without catastrophes, the number of people in poverty declines,
reaching the target in 2010
With catastrophes and no external aid, the poverty gap increases over time.
Source: Paul Freeman, et al. (2001)
Climate impacts perspectives
Climate change
1st-Nth order
impacts
Climate variability
Systemic
Vulnerability
Sustainable
development
Microadaptation
Adaptive
capacity
(Sectoral)
Vulnerability
Sustainable
livelihoods
Starting points
• Scenario-led
–
–
–
–
V=ƒ(Climate change exposure, impacts, adaptation)
Climate change is the problem
Adaptation is marginal to climate change impacts
Short-term responses
• Vulnerability-first
–
–
–
–
V=risk of adverse consequences
Focus on adaptive capacity and systemic properties
Solutions in sustainable development
Highest priority is climate variability (risk)
RISK SPACE
HAZARD
Risk is the overlay of hazard
and vulnerability
Disasters are the realisation
of risk
Both hazard and vulnerability
are changing
VULNERABILITY
Integrated vulnerability/adaptation
Source: Bohle, Watts, Downing
Operational vulnerability assessment
• How do we develop a
consensual definition and
measurement of
vulnerability?
• How do we measure
vulnerability?
Vulnerability is…
• An aggregate measure of human welfare that
integrates environmental, social, economic
and political exposure to a range of harmful
perturbations.
Why talk about Sustainable Livelihoods?
• Urgent adaptation needs of most vulnerable groups
• Existence of local coping strategies
• Hard-won lessons from other (non-climate) disciplines
(e.g., sustainable livelihoods, disaster mitigation, natural
resource management)
• No-regrets options and “Triple Dividend”
• Disconnect between community needs and the policy
process
The Sustainable Livelihoods Connection
Poverty
Vulnerability to Shocks
Vulnerability to Climate Extremes
At risk of Climate Change
Sustainable Livelihoods
Resilience to shocks
Climate Change Adaptation
What does “Sustainable Livelihoods” mean?
Sustainable Livelihoods: The capability of people to
make a living and improve their quality of life without
jeopardizing the livelihood options of others.
A livelihood is the means, activities, entitlements and
assets by which people make a living.
Sustainability implies:
–
–
–
–
Ability to cope with and recover from stresses and shocks
Economic effectiveness
Ecological integrity
Social equity
(Rennie and Singh, 1996)
Trends in food security frameworks
• Exposure:
– Food security --> Livelihood security
• VAM:
– Hoovering --> Structured assessment
– Single indicator --> Profiles --> Pathways?
• Rescaling
– Regional --> Individual --> Globalisation
A formal notation?
T
Vs,gc
Where:
T=threat
s=sector
g=group
c=consequence
E.g.: climate change vulnerability in agriculture
for farmers’ economic welfare
Vulnerability assessment techniques
•
•
•
•
Indicators and mapping
Multi-criteria assessment and profiles
Dynamic simulation and multi-agent systems
Sustainable livelihoods
Human Development Index
HDI Class
Missing (10)
Low
(45)
Medium (22)
High
(100)
Global desertification
Environmental Sustainability
ESI
1
2
3
4
5
6
(2)
(24)
(44)
(27)
(16)
(7)
Quantifying Vulnerability and Resilience
to Climate Change
Sensitivity sectors
Settlement
Coping and Adaptive Capacity sectors
Economics
Food
Health
Ecosystems
Human Resources
Environment
Water
Sensitivity Indicators
Coping-Adaptive Capacity Indicators
National Baseline Estimates and Projections of
Sectoral Indicators,
Sensitivity and Coping-Adaptive Capacity, and
Vulnerability-Resilience Response Indicators to Climate Change
R. Moss:
2001
Baseline Vulnerability-Resilience
Indicator Value
(World value = 0 for 1990)
Canada
Australia
New-Zealand
Germany
Brazil
Venezuela
USA
Argentina
Spain
Netherlands
Japan
Bulgaria
Jordan
UK
Korea-D-R-Rp
Hungary
Chile
Indonesia
Poland
Korea-Rep
Cambodia
Iran
Yemen
-200
-150
World
Mexico
Saudi-Arabia
Uzbekistan
Sudan
Ukraine
Nigeria
Thailand
Libya
South-Africa
Senegal
Bangladesh
Egypt
China
Tunesia
India
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Italy: soil and water
Vulnerability profile for Ethiopia
Vulnerability Profile, Delanta Dawunt, Ethiopia
Low income crop (V High)
HH Size
1.1
Types of dairy
0.9
Middle income crop (High)
Crop/dairy (Mod)
Male laborers
Isolated, middle income crop (Mod)
High income dairy (Mod)
0.7
Livestock holdings
Total Income
0.5
0.3
0.1
Road Access
-0.1
Total Expenditure
Mid Altitude
Crops sales price in bad year
Crop land
Food Aid
Grazing land
Dynamic pathways: Linking present vulnerability to
climate outlooks
Commercial
Farmers
Climate
Forecasters
Dissemination
Channels
Multi-agent approach:
•Represent actors as software agents
•Multi-level vulnerability
•Emergence from interactions
Emerging
Sustainable
Farmers
Vulnerable
Farmers
What can the Sustainable Livelihoods
Approach do?
• Enhance a community’s portfolio of “social
capital”: composite of natural, physical,
financial, technical and human capital
• Increase livelihood security
• Enhance capacity to cope with climaterelated shocks
• Build capacity to adapt to climate change
An Example from India:
• Context: Poor rural
villages in the droughtprone state of
Maharashtra
Approach: Micro-catchment Restoration and
Development
Actors: Local Communities and the Watershed
Organisation Trust (WOTR)
Image source: http://www.wotr.org/
India: What happened?
Individual villages undertook a package of SL measures,
designed to regenerate and conserve the microcatchments upon which their community depends:
–
–
–
–
Community Organization
Soil, Land and Water Management (e.g., trench building)
Crop Management
Afforestation; Rural Energy Management (e.g,. tree-felling
ban)
– Livestock Management; Pasture/Fodder Development (e.g,
grazing restrictions)
– Micro-lending for supplemental income generation
India: How did it happen?
• Community commitment, investment and control
•
•
•
•
“Village Self-Help Groups”
Participatory planning, implementation, management
Targeted role for women
Self-assessment
• Opportunities for livelihood security
• Micro-lending; Supplemental income generation
• Community self-help groups
• Support of local NGO (WOTR)
• Training and extension services
• Blending of “external” and traditional knowledge
India: What was the result?
Satellite imagery of Shenit Watershed
January 1996
December 1999
Prior to project implementation
During project implementation
Standard FCC Using IRS 1C LISS III band 2,3,4 data. Date of scan: 19th January 1996. Source: http://www.wotr.org
India:
What was the result?
The key outcome has been reduced
vulnerability to drought of participating
communities
As of 2001:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Number of Projects
Total Area Covered (ha.)
No.of Villages
176
No.of NGOs involved
No.of Districts
Total Population engaged
Image source: http://www.wotr.org/
128
135,812
77
22
210,000 (approx.)
An Example from Sudan:
• Context: Villages in the drought-prone Bara
Province, Western Sudan
• Approach: Community-Based Rangeland
Rehabilitation
• Key Actors: Villages within Gireigikh rural council,
pilot project staff, UNDP/GEF
Sudan: What happened?
A group of villages undertook a package of SL
measures, designed to regenerate and conserve the
degraded rangelands upon which their community
depends. These included:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Community Organization
Alternative Livestock and Livestock Management
Rural Energy Management
Replanting
Stabilization of sand dunes
Creation of windbreaks
Micro-lending for supplemental
income generation
(Image source: The Near East Foundation, http://www.neareast.org/main/nefnotes)
Sudan: What was the result?

Effectively combined
participatory planning, capacity
building and access to credit

Diversified production system
and established drought
contingency measures
• High impact - Several major objectives exceeded original targets
project due to perceived benefits
• Positive leakage - additional villages implementing project
strategies
• Strategies slated for expansion and replication in Province
Image source: The Near East Foundation (http://www.neareast.org/main/nefnotes)
Applying the SL Approach to Adaptation: Why
do it?
The SL approach helps users to:
• Focus on most vulnerable people
• Assess their vulnerabilities and strengths
• Tap existing knowledge, ongoing efforts to
determine what works
• Enable community-driven strategies and action;
ensure buy-in and longevity
• Ultimately… fortify against climate-related shocks
Applying the SL Approach to Adaptation: How
to do it?
Sample approach:
• Identify resilient communities (indicators)
• Ask why
– What do they do (strategies and measures)?
– What do they have (assets, “social capital”)?
• Ask what factors/conditions enabled them to carry
out strategies and measures
• Distill lessons on how to build community
resilience to climate impacts
Conclusions
Applying the SL Approach:
What can it do for adaptation?
Using this as a tool in adaptation assessment can help to:
• Enable national planning processes to effectively consider the
most vulnerable groups; articulate unique local vulnerabilities
• Identify locally-relevant resilience-building options
• Build understanding of micro- and macro-level enabling conditions
for adaptation
• Build local adaptation awareness and engage local NGOs
(potential adaptation project implementers)
(Image Source: Global Mechanism for the UNCDD website http://www.gm-unccd.org/English/Activities/Enabling.htm).
Opportunities in Trieste
• Vulnerability stream
– Concepts and toolkit
– Mapping and GIS
– Indicators
• Livelihoods practicals
– Drought early warning
– Role playing and agent-based modelling
– Resilient communities
• Stakeholders
– Participatory appraisal