Transcript Ice Storm
Road Maintenance and the Changing Climate 100 Years Ago There were only 8,000 cars in the U.S., and only 144 miles of paved roads. The maximum speed limit in most cities was 10 mph. Don MacIver, Heather Auld, Joan Klaassen, Neil Comer MEETING TAXPAYERS EXPECTATIONS: KNOWLEDGE AND TECHNOLOGY • Increasing population and demographics • More affluence and property value • Increasing urbanization and 24/7 Impacts and Adaptation Science Solutions: providing assistance by making … Red River Valley Flood RADARSAT Satellite Image • An adjustment in Floodway Emerson Winnipeg Red River Floodway Inlet response to actual or expected stimuli • Building our adaptive capacity by improving our adaptation science and partnerships Canada Customs St. Agathe Brunkild Dyke Rosenort Morris Making decisions and acting sustainably in a complex and changing world Adaptation Deficit is increasing Global Costs of Great Natural Disasters (1950-2000) in US$ Billions, including economic and insured losses ADAPTATION DEFICIT (Great natural disasters defined as > 100 deaths and/or US$ 100M in claims) Increasing Natural Disaster Losses Is Vulnerability of Communities Increasing?? billions of 1999 $ 6 economic loss 5 insured loss 4 3 2 1 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Source: ICLR, based on data from IBC and Emergency Preparedness Canada Adaptation Options Bear the loss (eg. liability) Prevent the effects (eg. ice removal) Modify the events (eg. salt/sand) Change Behaviour (eg. warnings) Research – (eg. science & technology) Education & outreach Invest in disaster resilience The Changing Climate Changes in temperature are unevenly distributed Trends for 1950-98 Degrees C Trends in extremes Trend in 5th percentile of daily Tmin (Winters, 1900-1998) Less intense cold X. Zhang. B. Bonsal, É. Mekis, A. Shabbarand L. Vincent Ontario • GETTING WARMER WARMER • NON-LINEAR WARMER LITTLE CHANGE Canada is becoming wetter Percent change in precipitation 1950-98 Ontario • GETTING WETTER WETTER • NON-LINEAR WETTER Beatrice Annual Precipitation 1895-2003 1800 Ann Precipitation (mm) Has the Climate Been Changing in the Georgian Bay Area? 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995 Year Since 1895… Long term Climate Stations Wiarton A Annual Temperature 14 Maximum 12 Temperature ( °C) 14 12 10 10 Mean 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 Minimum 0 0 -2 1895 -2 1915 1935 1955 Year Annual Temps warmed ~ 0.5-1.0 C (Min Temps up to 2 C) 1975 1995 2003 Annual Precip increased Up to 20% Has the Climate Been Changing in the Long Point Area? Delhi CDA Annual Precipitation 1935-2003 Ann Precipitation (mm) 1400 1250 1100 950 800 650 500 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Year Lake Erie Since 1935… Delhi CDA/CS Annual Temperature 16 Maximum 14 Temperature ( °C) 16 14 12 12 10 10 Mean 8 8 6 6 Minimum 4 4 2 2 0 0 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 Year 1985 1995 2005 Annual Temps warmed ~ 0.3C (Min Temps up to 0.8C) Annual Precip increased ~ 5-10% Source: Dianne MacIver, based on daily newspaper archives from the Dufferin County Museum and Archives Small Increases = Escalating Infrastructure Damages “small increases in weather and climate extremes have the potential to bring large increases in damages to existing infrastructure” DYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE: Energy, Moisture, Momentum April 21/0000 GMT July 9/1800 GMT Satellite Imagery RCTO Surface Weather Maps EC Radar Imagery/ Derived Products Britt CAPPI Aug 1/ 0025Z Visible impacts with extremes… forest fires floods Waves and storms droughts, heat spells Saguenay flooding (1996), 26 millions m3 of water and 9 millions tons of debris The Great Ice Storm (1998),1,5 millions customers without electricity for up to 30 days Toronto August 19, 2005 Finch Avenue During and After the Storm Impacts of Atmospheric Hazards on Wind Energy Generation GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE What’s Happening, and What Can We Expect We are not the first to worry about climate change “The picture’s pretty bleak, gentlemen…The world’s climates are changing, the mammals are taking over, and we all have a brain about the size of a walnut.” Larson, 1985 International science has provided sound advice for policy discussions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cautious 1990 First Report 1992 1995 Second Report 1997 Increasing Confidence 2001 Third Report Scientists have studied the relationship between greenhouse gas concentrations and climate for more than a century Because humans are changing the composition of the atmosphere CO2 Concentration (ppmv) 380 360 340 $ 320 $ $ $ $ $ Highest concentration in last 400,000 years $ $ $ $ 300 $ $ $ $ $ $ ! $ $ $ ' $ # ! ! $ $ '$ '$ ' '!#!' !'#! ' # ' ' ' !'' ! !$ 280 # # $ ' ' $ $ ' ' ' ' '' 260 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 A number of human factors may have affected our climate Global Mean Radiative Forcing (W/m2) 3 2 Aerosols - direct 1 0 Biomass Aerosol Burning - indirect Strat. Ozone Sulphate Well mixed GHGs Trop. Ozone Soot -1 -2 Climate Forcing Factor Solar Modelled response to all forcings agrees best with observations THE CHANGING CLIMATE Mitigation will slow down the rate and magnitude of change, but the need to adapt is unavoidable Global Temperature Change (degrees C) Stabilized at 750 ppm Baseline 4 3 Stabilized at 550 ppm 2 1 0 1900 2000 2100 Year 2200 December-January-February Mean Temperature Changes 2020 December-January-February Mean Temperature Changes 2080 December-January-February % Change in Precipitation 2020 December – January – February % Change in Precipitation 2080 Global Climate Model Projections for the 2050s for the Georgian Bay Area Annual Mean Temps Warming 2.2 – 4.0 C 2.5 – 12% Annual Mean Precip Increasing Changes relative to 1961-1990 Baseline Climate Scenario data from CGCM2 and HadCM3 NCAR Global and Regional Simulations of Snowpack Climate Change: Managing Hazards CLIMATE CHANGE Changes in Extremes Very Likely More extreme maximum temperatures (less extreme mins) More intense, more frequent, longer lasting heat waves More intense, more frequent precipitation events Likely Increased frequency, severity of drought Increases in tropical storms/hurricane wind and precipitation intensity Increased risk extreme events such as tornadoes, hail, lightning, ice storms Projected Changes in Canadian Extreme Precipitation 100 90 1985 2050 2090 Size of Event (mm) 2090 80 2050 1985 ~ 75 mm 70 60 50 40 10 20 40 80 Recurrence time (years) Projections of changes in average Canadian extreme 24-hour rainfall events that can be expected to recur once every 10, 20, 40, or 80 years. (Canadian Model, CGCM1, with Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases) Risk of more severe storms Weather Hazard Risk Assessment (Vulnerability Assessment) Ontario Emergency Management Act Involves assessment of risks to weather hazards: Fog Lightning Heavy Rain Heavy Snow Hurricanes Wind Storms Extreme Heat/Cold Ice Storms Drought Tornadoes Extreme Air Quality Events Hazards Website: http://www.hazards.ca Hazard and Impact Risk Assessment (HIRA) Community Risk Assessment Grid HELPING MUNICIPALITIES ADAPT Source: EMO, 2003 Trends now included… soon, climate change projections 1-Day Rainfall Cold Nights Trends in Climatic Indicators Temperature, Precipitation, Air Quality Hot Days >30C Ozone & Hot Days Ontario MOE, 2004 Atmospheric Hazards - Selection Results Map: .Ontario South Boreal(2300) Selected 586 places on this map Parameters: Hail Frequency in Ontario (Etkin) between 0.50 and 2.00 # Days/Year and Tornado Frequency in Ontario (Newark) between 0.80 and 2.40 # Events/Year Moderate-High Hail Frequencies AND Moderate-High Tornado Frequencies Ice Storm ‘98 Canada’s most costly ($) weather disaster ever Up to 95 mm of freezing rain accumulation in 3 separate “storms” over 1st week January Impacted 4 provinces; 7 states 1 million households without power at peak Collapsed communication towers, electrical transmission/distribution systems, phone lines Deaths: 28 in Canada; 19 in U.S. Ice Storm ’98 was Ontario Ice Storm of: Greatest Duration Areal Extent Ice Accumulation Impacts (and hydro downtime) Ice Storm ‘98 24 Ice Storms (Ontario: 18442002) Duration 6 days (3 “events”) 12 hrs – 4 days Areal Extent 110,000 km2 4,000 - 90,000 km2 95 mm 30 to 70-80 mm 3 ½ weeks <1 day to 2 weeks Ice Accumulation Maximum Hydro Downtime Source: Klaassen et al., 2003 Tracksof of the major ice Tracks Major Icestorms Storms which impacted Southern Ontario during the period 1948-2002 which impacted Southern/Eastern Ontario During the period 1948-2002 PERSISTENT ARCTIC HIGH Ice Storm 98 Tracks of the January 4-9 /1998 storm systems Ice Storm ‘98 1948 Jan 1 PERSISTENT 1953 Jan 8-9 ARCTIC HIGH 1953 Jan 9-10 1967 Jan4 26-27 1968 Jan 16 1 1971 Feb 4-5 1976 Mar 1-5 1986 Dec 24-25 1990 Feb 15-16 2 1997 Mar 14 see separate graphic 1998 Jan 4-9 12 hour storm motion Centre of the storm Ice Storm Conclusions…. Southern Ontario has been on “snow end” of major North American ice storms in PAST… Great Lakes likely moderate risks near shorelines Projected increases in freezing rain events with climate change – especially eastern and northern Ontario Societal vulnerability ( ie. adaptation deficit) to ice storms has already increased, and likely will continue to increase in future City of Ottawa By-Law … Winter Road and Sidewalk Maintenance Ottawa Trends … Observations Snow decreasing Rain increasing Total Annual Freezing Rain Hours (Days) for Ontario Stations (1953-2001) 5 (2) 6 (3) 8 (3) MIN 12 (4) 24 (8) 22 (7) 6 (2) OTTAWA MAX 37 (10) 10 (4) Ottawa 14 (5) 100 80 98 95 b=0.174 P=0.343 ZR hours 17 (5) 60 24 (7) 40 14 (5) 20 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 22 (7) 2000 Trends in Occurrence of Freezing Rain?? 14 Ontario stations, Montreal (1953-2001) 12 U.S. Great Lakes region sites (1973-2000) Ottawa 100 b=0.174 P=0.343 80 98 95 ZR hours 60 40 20 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Risk same or slight decrease in S Ont and Central Ont along shorelines Increasing trends in E Ont and N Ont Great Lakes influence on freezing rain occurrence? DECREASED frequency shores Lk Ontario, Lake Erie Power Line Climatological Design Criteria Design criteria of 25-30 mm for much of southern Ontario – less in northern Ontario Study showed risk of major power outages increases when Freezing rain amounts > ~30 mm Potential for long outages/”community disasters” and emergency shelters when Freezing rain amounts > ~40 mm Eastern Ontario most at risk for transmission line failures, communication tower collapses CSA/CEA design radial ice amounts (mm on 1 inch conductor) Increased Vulnerability to Ice Storms with Climate Change? in Frequency of Freezing Rain nges in FrequencyChanges of Freezing Rain Weather by 2050 for Ottawa Toronto and Ottawa Patterns by 2050 for Patterns Toronto and 40 35 Based on: CGCM2 A2 % Change (1958-01 to 2041-60) 34% Toronto Toronto Ottawa Ottawa 30% 30% 30 Based on: CGCM2 A2 25 20% 20% 20 15 9% 10 7% 9% 7% 5 0 -1% -5 >= 4 Hrs Frzg Rain Frz Rain >=1>=4 hr hrs Frz Rain >= 6 Hrs Frzg Rain Frz Rain >=4 Frz hrs Rain >= Frz6Rain >= 6 hours hours Observed Increases in Freeze-Thaw Cycles? (preliminary) Changes in Climate & Spring Weight Restrictions (SWRs) (lower weight required in thaw periods) Earlier spring weight restrictions In Conclusion.... • Our climate is already changing – community specific • Particularly vulnerable to Climate extremes and Creeping Cha • CLIMATE CHANGE will have significant impacts on all aspect Greater expectations along with aging population and proper • We will need to: ADAPT to reduce adaptation deficit, and strengthen human by improving our prediction, prevention, design and operati Reduce our GHG emissions to slow the rate of CC