Transcript Session 1.1 Managing Devt In Times of Rapid Change

MANAGING DEVELOPMENT IN
TIMES OF RAPID CHANGE
Copyright 2011 Phil Heywood
Lecture Outline
A. Rapid Change & its implications
1. Accelerating Pace of Social Evolution & Change
2. Steady State & Punctuated Equilibrium Explanations
3. Planning challenges & responses
4. Buzz Pairs: Planning for Change & Conservation
B. Specific Challenges & Responses
5. Physical
6. Technological
7. Social
8. Economic
9. Political
10.Conclusions
Accelerating Pace of Change
in Human Society
EVOLUTIONARY HISTORY:
1. 2.5 mill years of working – Homo Habilis , making tools
2. 1.5 mill years of walking upright – Homo Erectus, modern posture
& large brain.
3. 0.1 mill years of modern rationalist humanity – Homo Sapiens.
out-competing bigger brained, more individualistic Neanderthal
mankind
4. 0.01mill (10,000) years of stable Neolithic farming culture
Accelerating Pace of Change
in Human Society
EVOLUTIONARY HISTORY cont.:
5. 5,000 years of urban civilization & turbulent urban change
6. 500 years of Scientific & Industrial Revolutions
7. 50 years of Info tech transformations, from mainframe computers
of 1950s to Iphones, Blackberries & Ipads of today. & from lending
libraries to Google’s Global Library & Wikipedia
8. 20 years of accelerating physical, social, economic & political
changes from organized hierarchies to dynamic networks.
Prevailing Paradigm of Evolution of
Species & Society
Darwin’s assumptions of a continuous Adaptive Response
where
“Everything is for the Best In This Best of All Possible
Worlds”, resulting in the steady state evolution of best
adapted species by the “hidden hand” of a benign
nature securing survival of the fittest, very like the
“hidden hand” of Smith’s laws of supply & demand
But perhaps not – perhaps a random world where we must
rely on our capacity to cooperate in the face of
dramatic & random changes.
Counter Dominant Paradigm of
Punctuated Equilibrium*
IN GEOLOGY
Evidence of the rocks- long periods of stability interrupted by
sudden catastrophic changes:
1. Sharp horizons between Geological epochs:
2. Ice ages & Glaciation
3. Species extinction events - Extinction of Dinosaurs at the
end of Cretaceous.
IN LITERATURE
Evidence of early writing & Legends – Noah’s Ark, Legend of
Atlantis, floods of Gilgamesh’s Epic, etc.
Evidence of Great Floods & rapid sea level change.
* J.S. Gould, 1987, Times Cycle, Times Arrow
Counter Dominant Paradigm of
Punctuated Equilibrium
RESULTING HYPOTHESIS
Conditions will tend to achieve balance and retain
stability for long periods of time, before rapid and
interactive changes create a period of cascading physical
change, triggering resultant social change.
Responses of Reason & Planning
to Rapid Change
Jarred Diamond’s thesis (Collapse, 2006):
1.
Societies have choices: to fail through superstition or survive &
prosper through reason
2. Societies that don’t understand or manage changes may be destroyed
by them:
- Easter Island and Anasazi Indians deforestation, Viking
Greenland conservatism, Mayan death cult, human sacrifices &
repression
3. Those that do understand & plan:
a. Successful adaptation in “marginal” Iceland
b. Forest conservation in resource-restricted Tokugawa Japan
c. Civilization, art & scholarly regulation in monsoon and
border-threatened China
d. Polder model of civil engineering & governance in flood
threatened Netherlands
4. The World as a Polder, keeping out the floods: a recipe for today?
BUZZ PAIRS
- One member of the pair identifies & describes an
issue where planning is having to deal with rapid
change.
- The other member identifies & describes an issue
where planning should aim to maintain continuity and
conservation.
Current Cascade of Challenges of
Change & Response
1.
Physical Climate
a. Climate Change
2.
Technological Climate
a. Communications, ICT & the Web
b. Transport transformations
3.
Social Climate
a. Splintering Urbanism, decentralisation & the challenge to city centres
4.
Economic Climate
a. Global Financial Crisis
b. National Economic Crises – USA, Greece, Japan etc
5.
Political Climate
a. Governance changes, amalgamations and devolution
b. Political Ferment - Neo Libs, Neo Cons, Neo Keynesians & “Third Way”
advocates
c. No World Order & increased migration
1. Climate Change
CHANGE AREA
CHALLENGE
RESPONSES
Freshwater
resources
Droughts, water storage, purified
water recycling, desalination, power
consumption
Coastal systems &
wetlands in low
lying areas
Alternating episodes of flooding and Wetland designations & reservations ;
desiccation
Island evacuation schemes in Maldives.
South Pacific consultation & planning.
Ecosystems, crop
production
Return of spectre of food shortages,
famines and mass starvation
Village co-ops in Africa, crop
diversification in South Asia, review of
fossil fuel replacement schemes
Industry
Carbon emissions tax, pricing or
trading; energy pricing; managing
end of fossil oil epoch.
Re- direction and re-tooling of production
– smaller vehicles, active & public
transport, Green technologies
Settlements
Reduce energy consumption,
carbon emissions, increase
densities, avoid flood prone valleys
Urban Growth Boundaries; divert work
journeys to public & active transport;
design of low energy settlements
Health
Control danger of Malaria & insect
borne diseases & epidemics
Mosquito eradication & health education
programs.
Integrated but inclusive regional water
catchment participation & management
Community Action for Climate Change
in Oxfordshire
The world's climate is changing. Within just a few decades, if nothing is done to
reduce carbon dioxide emissions, large areas of the planet's surface will become
uninhabitable. This is the greatest threat ever to face humanity, and we need to
begin to reduce global emissions within the next 10 years if we are to act in time.
What’s Happening in
Oxford
1.
Buying more in local shops rather than in supermarkets- community
action for global welfare
2.
Using cars less and walking and cycling more- an Oxford tradition!
3.
Growing more of our own food and managing woodlands for firewood
4.
Encouraging the purchase of fairly traded, low carbon-footprint goods
which truly benefit producer communities in other parts of the world
5.
Measuring our carbon footprints in order to identify where we can
improve, and to monitor progress
6.
Reducing the number of non-essential overseas flights we take.
What’s Happening in
Oxford
7.
Reducing our energy use within the home, by insulating, installing lowenergy bulbs, etc.
8.
Generating our own power renewably, including solar panels, wind
turbines and biomass as appropriate.
9.
Reducing our landfill waste to zero by reducing consumption, re-using
and recycling our waste.
10. Supporting those around the world, particularly the poorest, who suffer the
impacts of global warming-related disasters.
11. Helping and supporting other residents and groups in Wolvercote (and
more widely in the UK and worldwide) to pursue these goals.
Source: Lo Carb Oxon
Impacts in the Marshall Islands
For the Marshallese people, the ocean has always been a source of both
sustenance and danger. But nowadays, climate change is causing the sea to
shrink as a resource and grow as a threat.
As waters rise, the islands
will not "disappear", but
become increasingly prone
to erosion, typhoons, floods,
well water contamination,
and coral bleaching. There is
a very real possibility that the
country's 60,000 indigenous
inhabitants will have to leave
their homeland in the next 50
years.
Impacts in the Marshall Islands
We must not think of the Marshallese as merely
victims, and certainly not as passive. To do so
would be to deny the ability of people - all across
the globe and through time - to adapt to all sorts
of changes. It is too early to abandon hope for a
resilient Marshall Islands.. But this does not
change the fact that sea level rise is a grave
threat to entire nations, and evacuation is not to
be taken lightly.
It is the duty of Western citizens and
governments to help prevent this forced
relocation, and - if worst comes to worst - to
accept the people as refugees. Some scholars
are uncomfortable with calling such migrants
"refugees", but there can be no other word for
people forced by others' negligence to leave
their homes of 2000 years.
2. Technological Changes
CHANGE AREA
CHALLENGES
RESPONSES
Information Access &
Exchange.
Increased speed,
scale & reduced cost
Retain vitality of local
community life &
capture advantages of
increased interaction
Public sector involvement in InfoTech
infrastructure & integration into
community & economic planning Commonwealth Govt. Cable rollout.
Increased “glocal”
awareness
Cooperation to achieve
mutual benefit within
the global community
Promotion of Fair Trade, based on
human skills & global networks.
Location & roles of
global seaports
Plan & integrate
downstream locations
Best community use of
inner city sites now
available
Port Redevelopment Agencies:
integrated reclamation schemes (London
Docklands, San Francisco's Fisherman’s
Wharf, Brisbane’s Northshore & Portside,
Rotterdam’s central docks
redevelopment)
Regional & national
roles & demands of
“Aerotropolises”
Maintaining liveable
metro & local
settlements with
integrated central
places & transport
Negotiative Planning to integrate airports
into regional planning and protect local
communities from excessive impacts of
noise and traffic
Managing Land Use Change:
Olympic Redevelopment in London’s Lea Valley
Master plan for London's 2012 Olympic bid, envisages the
creation of the largest urban park in Europe for 200 years.
More than half of the facilities for the games will be packed on
to a 500-acre Lea Valley site, including main stadium &
Olympic village.
Managing Land Use Change:
Olympic Redevelopment in London’s Lea Valley
This will be surrounded by green land extending from Hackney and Stratford
in the north to Canning Town in the south, with a total area of 1500 acres.
The master plan includes:
a. An 80,000-seater stadium at Marshgate Lane in the centre of the
"Olympic Precinct"
b. A 17,000-capacity Olympic village near Stratford
c. A major bridge over the A12 in the north of the scheme.
d. Scheme sits on both sides of River Lea, a tributary of the Thames, with
200 bridges of varying size
e. “Legacy" plans to link the entire site to the Thames Gateway urban
growth area after the games. Many of the Olympic facilities would be
converted to create up to 40,000 homes by 2020.
The Lea Valley & the Urban Region
The River Lea
1. The River Lea runs from Leagrave at the edge of
Luton into Hertfordshire and the south to enter
Greater London near Waltham Cross. It continues
south through Enfield Lock, Ponders End, Brimsdown
and Tottenham Hale to Stratford.
2. The area is home to some of the most deprived
communities in the UK and has been identified as the
inner London area with the greatest potential for
regeneration – it is estimated that 25% of London’s
growth will take place here.
3. The successful 2012 Games and Stratford City
development will act as a driver for investment over
the next 30-40 years.
Reclamation in the Lower Lea Valley
In the area to the south east of the Olympic Park site, Stratford town
centre will develop as a new metropolitan centre for new homes and
employment.
Further south, Canning Town and Custom House will benefit from an
improved town centre, demolition of 1,700 dilapidated homes and
construction of 3,900 new homes. LTGDC has been working closely with
the London Borough of Newham to deliver the physical and social change
in the area.
Reclamation in the Lower Lea Valley
Further commercial and residential development is proposed at Bromleyby-Bow, with a new school and health facilities.
The Lea River Park will link to a ribbon of green space stretching north to
the Olympic Park and south to the River Thames. A new lock and water
control structure will encourage commerce &l and recreation. At the
southern end, the East India Dock will be improved and regenerated.
LTGDC is funding land acquisition in Stratford and Custom House as well
as contributing resources to the management and future planning of the
area.
Lower Lea Valley Summary
1.
The Lower Lea Valley stretches from the 2012 Games site at Stratford,
south to the River Thames, bounded by Hackney Wick and Hackney
Marshes to the north and extends east from the A12 to the Stratford &
Canning Town rail line
2.
The Mayor of London’s Opportunity Areas Planning Framework, adopted in
February 2008, anticipated 40,000 new homes and 50,000 jobs in the area.
3.
LTGDC’s contribution, working with the private sector, by 2016 will be:
• 11,000 homes
• 5,000 jobs
• £3bn of private sector investment
• More than 100,000 sq metres of commercial space
• 12km of new roads
• 92 hectares of Brownfield land in fresh use.
3. Social and Planning Climate
CHANGE AREAS
CHALLENGES
RESPONSES
“Splintering”
Urbanism
To maintain activity centres &
convenient central places- for
intellectual, social and economic
vitality
Focussed investment: TODs,
UGBs, co-location of community
facilities; Regional & Urban
Infrastructure Plans & Planning .
Integrated development
schemes- Sydney’s Homebush,
Pertha’s Subiaco, London’s Lea
Valley & Stratford, SEQ’s
Western Corridor, Ripley Valley &
Northshore
Decentralisation
To maintain, promote and create
communities with vital community
life
District, Local & Neighbourhood
Policy & Infrastructure Planning &
Investment
Challenges to City
Centres , Inner
Cities & Central
Places
Policy processes to evaluate
proposals e.g. Toll Tunnels, Inner
city Vehicular Bridges, & “roadifying”
of inner cities & all central places
Creation of unique pedestrian &
cultural focal points in central
areas and places throughout
settlements
4. Economic Change & Crises
CHANGE AREA
CHALLENGES
RESPONSES
The Reach of the
Global Economy
Maintain full employment
Regional Economic Development Planning (RED)
Local Economic Development (LED)
Foreign Direct
Investment
Protect local interests and jobs
(avoid “International Division of
Labour” )
Discourage foreign military
adventures “Where a man’s
treasure is there will be his heart
(and soldiers?) also”
Planned partnership schemes protected by local
and national government participation and
regulations.
Sponsorship of investment in local communities
with overseas links
Global recessions &
their tides of national
and local impacts
Economic Stimulus Packages &
developing action- ready
proposals & schemes
Planned encouragement for community initiatives
in cooperative and community enterprises
Market Failures in
Housing &
Homelessness
Maintain adequate, appropriate
and affordable housing stock
Public players in Land Market: ULDA, SA Urban
Land Trust (SAULT)]:
Public Development Corporations;
Public Social & Cooperative Housing (Brisbane
Housing Company)
5. Rapid Political Change
CHANGE AREAS
CHALLENGES
RESPONSES
Governance changes,
amalgamations and
devolution
To maintain community vitality
& engagement in settlements &
areas of increasingly large
scale
Community & Neighbourhood Councils,
Community Boards, Neighbourhood & Community
Planning Teams, Creek Catchment Coordinating
Committees
Political ferment - Neo
Libs, Neo Cons, Neo
Keynesians & “Third
Way” advocates &
converts
Reconstruction of Government
engagement methods &
activities. Opportunities for
cooperation with a range of
partners
Local , regional and cooperative government
enterprises and partnerships– economic
promotion, water, power, culture , art, etc.
Support for individual and private enterpriseassociational economics, micro credit & incubator
premises for industry, commerce and art
Splintered world order
& increased migration.
Managing impact of Global
Economy in a situation of no
clear rules.
Public sector & community involvement as partner
and watchdog.
Scrutiny of foreign ownership of local assets .
Collapse of
Communism & Crisis
of Capitalism
Opportunities for social,
community & cooperative
organization & initiatives
Community Initiatives & engagement;
Public investment in community activities
Conclusions
In this time of unprecedented & accelerating change, we must make
choices & take decisions:
Options:
• Freewheel bike race down the mountain – exhilarating but
dangerous – e.g. GFC
• Being “present in the present” but also undertaking mixed
scanning & applying communicative community planning &
development to manage impacts and maximize benefits from
cascades of change.
Comments & Questions?