Transcript Suppakorn Chinvanno - START - SysTem for Analysis Research

Climate Change in Mekong River Basin
and Hypothetical Impacts on Water
Related Sectors:
AS07 Preliminary finding and future study direction
Suppakorn Chinvanno
Southeast Asia START Regional Center
Old SWU Pathumwan 5 Building, 5th Floor
Chulalongkorn University
Henri Dunant Rd., Bangkok 10330
Agenda
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Study of Climate Change in Mekong River Region
Output from Regional Climate Modeling
Impact of Climate Change in Mekong Region: Future
Precipitation
Climate Change Impacts on Water Related Sectors:
Mekong Region
Hypothetical Conclusion on
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Agriculture
•
Water Supply
•
Human Settlement & Urbanization
•
Natural Wetland
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Future Study: Framework & Direction
Study of Climate Change in
Mekong River Region
China
The study of climate change
in Mekong River Basin will
base on scenarios of GHG in
earth atmosphere,
particularly - CO2
Viet Nam
Myanmar
Laos
Thailand
This study is based on 2xCO2,
scenario and will also include
1.5xCO2 scenario in the
future.
Cambodia
Mekong River Basin
Study of Climate Change in
Mekong River Region
Regional Climate Change Study:
Modeling Approach
Atmospheric Research Climate Modeling
• Regional climate model used:
Conformal Cubic Atmospheric
Model (CCAM)
• The output resolution was set at
14 km.
Stretched coordinate system for CCAM modeling of the Mekong basin
Output from CCAM Regional Climate Model:
Changes in rainfall throughout the Mekong region
Impact of Climate Change in
Mekong Region: Future Precipitation
Summary of CC Impact on Precipitation by Landform
• Lancang Basin - less rainfall
throughout the year by 20%
Lancang Basin
Total Rainfall (mcm/month)
45,000
1xCO2
2xCO2
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month
8
9
10
11
12
Impact of Climate Change in
Mekong Region: Future Precipitation
Summary of CC Impact on Precipitation by Landform
• Northern Highland
• Significantly increase of rain at
the latter part of rainy season
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
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9
10
11
12
0
5,000
)htnom/mcm( llafniaR latoT
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2xCO2
1xCO2
40,000
45,000
Northern Highland
Impact of Climate Change in
Mekong Region: Future Precipitation
Summary of CC Impact on Precipitation by Landform
• Korat Plateau – Season change.
• Slightly shorter but more intense toward
the end of rainy season
• Longer and dryer dry season
Korat Plateau
Total Rainfall (mcm/month)
45,000
1xCO2
2xCO2
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month
8
9
10
11
12
Impact of Climate Change in
Mekong Region: Future Precipitation
Summary of CC Impact on Precipitation by Landform
• Eastern Highland – Season change
• Longer and dryer dry season
• Shorter and wetter rainy season
Eastern Highland
Total Rainfall (mcm/month)
45,000
1xCO2
2xCO2
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month
8
9
10
11
12
Impact of Climate Change in
Mekong Region: Future Precipitation
Summary of CC Impact on Precipitation by Landform
• Lowland – Change in season pattern
• Longer and dryer dry season
• Shorter and wetter rainy season
Lowland
Total Rainfall (mcm/month)
45,000
1xCO2
2xCO2
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month
8
9
10
11
12
Climate Change Impacts on
Water Related Sectors: Mekong Region
CC Impacts on 4 major water related sectors:
hypothetical conclusion
• Agriculture (impact on rainfed rice cultivation)
• Water Supply (impact on water quantity/quality)
• Human Settlement and Urbanization (impact on
flood/infrastructure)
• Natural Wetland (impact on biodiversity)
Climate Change Impacts on
Water Related Sectors: Mekong Region
Agriculture
•Rainfed agriculture in Lancang landform will be highly
affected by total reduction in precipitation.
• Impact on rain-fed rice cultivation in most part of lower
Mekong region from seasonal shift and change in rainfall
pattern.
Climate Change Impacts on
Water Related Sectors: Mekong Region
Water Supply
• Significant reduction in water supply in
upper Mekong--Yunnan--but may be less
erosion
• Some water shortage in dry season in
most southern landforms due to longer and
dryer season
• Deteriorated water quality--salinity,
acidification, etc.-- in some areas due to
reduced flushing during dry spells
Climate Change Impacts on
Water Related Sectors: Mekong Region
Human Settlement and Urbanization
• Potential for more intense and longer flood in Korat
Plateau and Southern Lowland, especially in September
and October
Climate Change Impacts on
Water Related Sectors: Mekong Region
Natural Wetland
• Possibility for drying-out of some wetlands in
Lancang landform
• Impact on migratory species caused by
change in water regime in wetland due to the
change in rainy season pattern. Possibility in
most of lower part of Mekong region.
• Treat to wild fish stock and capture fishery,
especially in the Korat Plateau and southern
Lowlands.
Future Study: Framework & Direction
Problem Definition
(e.g. potential climatic variations, historical events)
Project Scoping
(e.g. study area, sectors, scenarios)
Impact Assessment
(integrated impacts analysis)
Adaptation Assessment
(options, adaptive capacity)
Integrated Vulnerability Assessment
Adaptation Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability
Future Study: Framework & Direction
Impact of climate change on precipitation
and downstream effect on water resources
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Possible change in the future
rainfall pattern and shifting of the
season
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Impact on future runoff and river
flow from the future rainfall
pattern
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Impact on future frequency,
length and magnitude of flood
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Impact on future frequency,
length and magnitude of drought
Future Study: Framework & Direction
Regional hydrology study – modeling approach:
SEA BASINS
SEA BASINS: VIC Hydrological
Model for Mekong Basin
Drainage
Soil
Land Cover
Elevation
Future Study: Framework & Direction
Regional hydrology study – modeling approach:
SEA BASINS
Future Study: Framework & Direction
Regional hydrology study – modeling approach:
SEA BASINS
Future Study: Framework & Direction
Agriculture
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Use satellite image to determine rice field.
Then, use crop model – DSSAT to study rice yield under
future climate scenarios.
Assess community vulnerability from the change of rice
production – evaluate impact in terms of rice production as
indicator of food intake for household and source of income.
Assessment to be done at the sub-basin level.
Future Study: Framework & Direction
Water Resources
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Simulate the water profile from SEA-BASIN
VIC model
Assess community vulnerability by
evaluate the supply of water and match the
usage pattern by various sectors in the
Mekong River region, perhaps to use
frame of MRC-WUP as guideline
Also study the impact of changing in water
regime toward the salinity – particularly in
NE of Thailand
Future Study: Framework & Direction
Human Settlement and Urbanization
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Study the tendency of increasing of frequency and magnitude
of flood in the region from climate variability.
Evaluate the vulnerability from the damage that future flood
may cause – perhaps to use the frame and information from
MRC-Flood Forum as guideline
Future Study: Framework & Direction
Aquatic Ecosystems
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Study the impact of CC on the product
and services from the ecosystems that
community rely for their well-being: plan
to focus on the habitat for migratory
species, particularly fish which is
captured for food
Assess community vulnerability from
wild fish stock and capture fishery as this
is main source of food intake for the
household as well as source of income.
Assessment to be done at the sub-basin
level
Discussion Session
Thank You