Transcript Will recent scientific findings redirect policy?

Will recent scientific findings
redirect policy?
Øystein Hov1 and Peringe Grennfelt2
1)Norwegian Meteorological Institute and
EMEP MSCW
2)IVL
Issues which are likely to change
environmental policy direction
• the coupling between atmospheric composition
change air and climate change (both directions)
• the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land
use changes
• air quality and health
• Globalisation of the economy – transportation and
energy use, “greying of Europe”
• Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and
deposition on different scales in space and time
Schär et al., 2004, Nature 427,
Schär et al., 2004, Nature 427, 332-336
RCM climate change scenario
of current (CTRL 1961–90)
and future (SCEN 2071–2100)
conditions. a, b, distribution of
summer T northern Switzerland
for CTRL and SCEN, c, T for
SCEN–CTR, d, Change in
variability expressed as relative
change in standard deviation of
JJA means ((SCEN–
CTRL)/CTRL, %). Copied
from Schär et al., 2004.
Climate change feedbacks on
atmospheric composition can be
sorted according to
• emission regulators (both anthropogenic and biogenic,
including demography, shift in seasonal temperatures and the
effect on energy consumption, plant and forest species,
atmosphere-ocean interaction)
• transport regulators (wind, convection, mixing properties
in the ABL)
• transformation regulators (rh, q, cloud cover and type, T,
albedo and its effect on photolysis rates)
• removal regulators (precipitation frequency and amount,
surface properties, bidirectional effects)
First order feedbacks from
climate change on
atmospheric composition?
A first order feedback from climate change on
atmospheric composition exists if:
The parameter changes linked to climate change
affect exposure or deposition by an amount which
is comparable to the changes in exposure or
deposition that follow technologically or
economically feasible emission changes
Enhanced boundary layer ozone over
central Europe summer 2003
• Dry deposition - the most important ABL
removal mechanism of ozone - is strongly
reduced in drought conditions
• Enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic
compounds
• ABL breakup slower in high pressure cell and
drought conditions
Probably a ”sudden change” in ozone loss while
ozone production is likely to increase in drought
(biogenic VOC emissions up; NOx from
combustion up; but OH perhaps down). Health
implications
Deposition and emission
• Bi-directional nature of
ammonia exchange
• Co-deposition of SO2 and
NH3
• In-canopy NOx processes
• Ozone fluxes: stomatal
and external leaf uptake,
closed at night and in
drought
• Modelling surface –
atmosphere exchange
c a air concentration
atmospheric resistance
ATMOSPHERE
boundary
canopy
layer
compensation c resistance
point
stomatal
c
resistance
cuticular
resistance
c
CANOPY
In-canopy
resistance
G = [NH4+]/[H+]
c sstomatal
compensation
point
c l soil
compensation
point
From Biatex2, Eurotrac2 (Erisman et al 2003)
Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds: Annual Global Total Emission > 1.5 Gt
Formic acid, acetic acid, ethane, toluene, camphene,
terpinolene, a-terpinolene, a-thujene, cineole,
ocimene, g-terpinene, bornyl acetate,
camphor,
piperitone, linalool,
tricyclene: 0.04 to
0.2% each
b-pinene, d-carene,
hexenal, hexenol, hexenylacetate, propene,
formaldehyde, hexanal,
butanone, sabinene,
limonene, methyl butenol,
butene, b-carophylene, bphellandrene, p-cymene,
myrcene: 0.2 to 1% each
Isoprene
(C5H8)
40%
Various
compounds
may dominate
annual
emissions at
specific
locations
Acetaldehyde, acetone, ethene,
ethanol, a-pinene: 1 to 7% each
From Alex Guenther, NCAR, at ILEAPS
workshop Helsinki 2003 (from www)
Methanol
(CH3OH)
15%
Estimates of climate change feedback on
atmospheric composition
• Summer ABL ozone a factor of 2 over
Continental Europe?
• Biogenic emissions feedback 10%?
• Acid dep and eutrophication 10%?
• Summer PM a factor of 2?
Another climate – chemical change feedback:
Fire-convection frequency (”Add fireconvection to volcanoes”)
• August 2003: Hundreds of boreal forest fires in
Russia and Canada and in the temperate forests of
the USA (210.000km2 in Russia burnt)
• Northern summer 1998 boreal zone fires in Russia
and Canada with plume smoke entering the lower
stratosphere residing till October
• Significant increase in frequency and severity of
boreal fires predicted under climate change
(longer fire seasons and drier conditions)
Fromm and Bevilacqua, Atm.Env. 2004, 38, 163-165.
Biscuit and Tiller Fires in California and Oregon
(08/14/02) – Courtesy of J. Descloitres
More lightning under climate
change?
• The global surface source of NOx is about
40 MtN/a (50-50 anthropogenic and
biogenic)
• Lightning source about 5 MtN/a (1-20
MtN/a range)
• Aircraft source 0.5-1 MtN/a
Issues which are likely to change
environmental policy direction
• the coupling between atmospheric composition
change air and climate change (both directions)
• the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land
use changes
• air quality and health
• Globalisation of the economy – transportation and
energy use, “greying of Europe”
• Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and
deposition on different scales in space and time
Globalisation, transportation needs
• Shipping has gone up by 70% between 1984 and 2001
• Air transport has increased yearly by between 5 and 10%
since 1970.
• Air pollution emissions from these transport systems have
only been controlled to a limited extent. Shipping hardly any
control except some in limited areas, e.g. the North Sea and
the Baltic.
• Ship emissions are today responsible for more than 10
percent of the global NOx emissions (perhaps as much as
20%).
• For Europe, shipping emissions now contribute significantly
to the deposition of sulphur and nitrogen compounds in
coastal areas and the downward trend in atmospheric
deposition is slowing or has stopped
The Greying of Europe
Q: Fraction of N, S emitted over Europe removed there
World seaborn dry cargo and oil trade movements,
million tonnes
6000
Oil
5000
Dry Cargo
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
The trend in the global seaborne trade movement of dry cargo and
oil since 1984 in million tonnes per year (20).
Red: Visible reflectance
Green: 3.7 mm reflectance
Blue: 11 mm temperature
Ship tracks over the North Pacific
Ship Track Formation
N ~ 40 cm-3
W ~ 0.30 g m-3
re ~ 11.2 µm
N ~ 100 cm-3
W ~ 0.75 g m-3
re ~ 10.5 µm
The Greying of Europe. Tropospheric Trace Gases
Observable by Satellite
Nitrogen Dioxide:
(requires separation from
stratosphere)
Formaldehyde
Carbon Monoxide
Jack Fishman, NASA, ESA-ESTEC
presentation from www
United Kingdom
1,38
1,36
1,34
1,32
1,3
1,28
1,26
1,24
1,22
1,2
1,18
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Italy
1,12
1,1
1,08
Ratio of electricity
consumption in JanuaryMarch to July-September for
each year 1990-2000 for the
United Kingdom and Italy
(36).
1,06
1,04
1,02
Eurostat Energy Database
1
(August 2004).
0,98
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Issues which are likely to change
environmental policy direction
• the coupling between atmospheric composition
change air and climate change (both directions)
• the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land
use changes
• air quality and health
• Globalisation of the economy – transportation and
energy use, “greying of Europe”
• Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and
deposition on different scales in space and time
Megacity growth trends (ES&T Feature).
Urban air quality
assessment
Multi-scale character
Regional-to-urban
coupling
Example: O3
calculated with
EURAD for
BERLIOZ (July 20,
1998, 14 UTC).
Source: Memmesheimer
Moussiopoulos, Eurotrac2 final event 2003
Issues which are likely to change
environmental policy direction
• the coupling between atmospheric composition
change air and climate change (both directions)
• the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land
use changes
• air quality and health
• Globalisation of the economy – transportation and
energy use, “greying of Europe”
• Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and
deposition on different scales in space and time
Environment and health
Greater London 2005
Annual mean NO2 concentrations
Source: CERC
NO2 ug/m3
< 20
20 - 24
24 - 28
28 - 32
32 - 36
36 - 40
40 - 44
44 - 48
48 - 52
> 52
0
5
10 Kilometers
Moussiopoulos, Eurotrac2 final event 2003
Issues which are likely to change
environmental policy direction
• the coupling between atmospheric composition
change air and climate change (both directions)
• the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land
use changes
• air quality and health
• Globalisation of the economy – transportation and
energy use, “greying of Europe”
• Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and
deposition on different scales in space and time
Stratospheric
Effects
Atmosphere
PM &
Visibility
Effects
Ozone
Effects
NOx
Energy
Production
Food
Production
NOx
NHx
NH3
Agroecosystem Effects
Crop
People
(Food; Fiber)
Human Activities
The Nitrogen
Cascade
--Indicates denitrification potential
Animal
Soil
Norg
Terrestrial
Ecosystems
GH
Effects
N2O
Forests &
Grassland
Soil
NO3
N2O
Groundwater
Effects
Surface water
Effects
Coastal
Effects
Ocean
Effects
Aquatic Ecosystems
Issues which are likely to change
environmental policy direction
• the coupling between atmospheric composition
change air and climate change (both directions)
• the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land
use changes
• air quality and health
• Globalisation of the economy – transportation and
energy use, “greying of Europe”
• Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and
deposition on different scales in space and time
THE END