Transcript Health impact assessment of air pollution

THE PEP INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP in MOSCOW, 7 June 2012
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF URBAN TRANSPORT: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
Methods and models to estimate
the impact of transport on health
and the environment in cities
Pierpaolo Mudu
World Health Organization
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Overview
The focus of this presentation is on the methods and
models to estimate the impact of transport on
health and the environment. This presentation is
composed by the following sections:
1) brief introduction to the aspects related to an
integration of different impacts due to transport
2) presentation of modelling examples from various
projects.
3) discussion on the challenges and implications of
an integrated approach.
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Tools for assessing potential health impacts of
transport policies
Tools to assess the health effects of policy Diagram of pathways from transport policy
options
to health outcomes
Source: Joffe, Mindell, 2002: 136
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Health impacts of urban transport
• Air pollution (outdoor & in vehicles)
• Road accidents (incl. pedestrians)
• Noise
• Physical activity (lack of)
• Psychosocial effects
• Climate change
• Beneficial effects
Transport plays a role in several of the leading risk
factors for health
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Transport policies have major health impacts,
which have been dealt with separately
CLIMATE
CHANGE
NOISE
ROAD TRAFFIC
INJURIES
PHYSICAL
ACTIVITY
AIR POLLUTION
PSYCHOSOCIAL
EFFECTS
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Population and risk factors
http://www.thetransportpolitic.com/
http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/static/images/Research/Figure5_Air_Quality_.jpg
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Time spent in traffic in some European cities (%)
Fraction of time (%) spent in different microenvironments
Oxford: All people
Helsinki: All people
120.0
120.0
other outdoors
other outdoors
100.0
other indoors
100.0
other indoors
work outdoors
work outdoors
home outdoors
60.0
home indoors
train
bus
40.0
work indoors
80.0
work indoors
Percent
Percent
80.0
home outdoors
60.0
home indoors
train
40.0
bus
car
motorbike
20.0
walk
car
20.0
motorbike
walk
22:30
21:00
19:30
18:00
16:30
15:00
0.0
0:
00
1:
30
3:
00
4:
30
6:
00
7:
30
9:
00
10
:3
0
12
:0
0
13
:3
0
15
:0
0
16
:3
0
18
:0
0
19
:3
0
21
:0
0
22
:3
0
Time
13:30
12:00
9:00
10:30
7:30
6:00
4:30
3:00
1:30
0:00
0.0
Time
Source: EXPOLIS
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Example of modelling transport
impacts through GIS
A GIS modelling tool for exposure to traffic
developed jointly with a “Health Impacts of
Transport” calculator by WHO during the
ISHTAR and HEARTS projects allows to
consider the various methodological
challenges
Traffic Exposure (TEX) demo
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
How Modelling Has Changed in the Last Ten Years
Few examples:
Interactive mobile and web maps
Open-source software
Google earth
Cloud platforms
Parallel computing
3d and 4d modelling and visualization
GPS
Programming languages
Remote sensing data analysis
Two case studies related to manipulation of mobility
data: mobile telephone activity, tourist density
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Example of recent modelling
In collaboration with Arnaud Banos (CNRS – France)
See Mudu, Terracini and Martuzzi (2012)
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Questions: Does integration involve significant
shifts in the transport modeling practice? 1
Consider, just for example:
• Origin/Destination matrices
• network used in traffic simulation
• outputs of a traffic model
• dispersion models
The whole process of integration means a substantial
improvement in the transport modeling practice
because new and more precise requirements need to
be satisfied.
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Questions: Does integration involve significant
shifts in the health impact assessment practice? 2
Everybody is not exposed to the same pollutant
concentrations, and space/time activities matter
Dose/response curves can be carefully and successfully
used
The temporal scale of health effects, i.e. the latency times
from exposure to adverse event, must be taken into
consideration.
Double counting problems arise for some health effects
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Why Integration?
• In order to obtain a realistic measure of risks from
transport systems, we benefit from getting
information both on the time activity patterns of the
people concerned, and the time-and space-varying
patterns of different transport-related risks (e.g. air
pollution, noise and accident). Integration means to
be able to link all this information together in a
consistent and coherent way
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn
Why Integration?
The reasons to run integrated impact assessment can be summarised as:
• provide quantitative methods that present an assessment of health impacts and
not just a qualitative assessment of possible effects;
• support the measurement and comparison of different scenarios based on data
publicly available or measurable;
• help set precise methodologies that can be validated ex-post;
• meet the needs of cities and regions
• more coherent analysis of different effects of transportation systems
• Increased cooperation among different local authorities committed in
interacting sectors (urban and regional planning, transport, air quality, health,
safety....)
• Better understanding of health implications of planning policies
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Which are the challenges?
• Lack of data;
• Wrong data format (and cleaning data needs)
• Definition of required space/time scale/multi-scale and
population size;
• Difficulty in integrating different risks to health;
• Lack of integration between land use and transport
planners
• Lack of multidisciplinary teams capable of coping with
‘integrated problems’
• What is relevant in different contexts?
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Conclusions
Integration of models for transport impacts on health is a
complex process that can be addressed in different ways.
I brought as an example the work, in particular the
methodologies and software, done in various projects and
I am available to discuss the role of health when it has to
be considered together with planning and transport
policies that is projects involving (most of the times in a
separate way) engineering, geography, mathematics,
software programming, epidemiology etc..
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Transport, health and environment
Thank you for
your attention
References:
Hosking J., Mudu P., Dora C. (2011) Health co-benefits of climate change mitigation - Transport sector.
Geneva: WHO
Mudu P., Terracini B. and Martuzzi M. (2012) Human health in areas with industrial contamination.
Copenaghen: WHO. Forthcoming
HEARTS: www.euro.who.int/hearts
ISHTAR: www.ishtar-fp5-eu.com/
Pierpaolo Mudu
[email protected]
WHO EURO – ECEH, Bonn