Transcript ETA-Centro de Previsão e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC)

BRAZIL
Climate Change Regional
Modeling: Model
Eta/CPTEC
Asunción, agosto 2006
Haroldo Machado Filho
CC National Programme
• Initial strategy: emphasizing studies for the
preparation of the Brazilian Inventory of Net
Anthropogenic Emissions of Greenhouse Gases.
• 2000: inclusion of the climate change issue in
the Government’s 2001-2004 multi-year plan –
preliminary studies on CC vulnerability,
emphasizing health, agriculture and coral
bleaching.
• First National Communication: some case
studies of climate change impacts were
identified and presented as examples of areas
that would require further research.
New Challenges
• Second National Communication:
- Downscaling of global circulation models for
Brazil will be developed.
- Studies on vulnerability and adaptation will be
undertaken, with a focus on the health sector; energy
sector; water resources, floods, and desertification;
agriculture, pasture and livestock sector; coastal zone
management; and aquatic biodiversity
• Continental dimension, with many different
regions and biomes – need of a climate change
model with an adequate spatial resolution.
Global Modeling
• Climate change scenarios for the 21st century were
derived from various global climate models used by
the IPCC.
• The fact that global climate models use different
physical representations of processes, with a
relatively low resolution grid, introduces a certain
degree of uncertainty in future climate change
scenarios.
• Eg.: Amazon Watershed - some models estimate
climates with higher rainfall and others relatively
drier climates
Downscalling
• Need of downscaling methods that can be applied to the climate
change scenarios based on the global climate models.
• Objective: more detailed projections of climate, by states,
watersheds, valleys or regions, with a higher spatial resolution
than that provided by a global climate model.
• Crucial for the development of climate change impact
assessment (e.g.: management and operation of water resources,
on natural ecosystems, on agricultural activities, etc.).
• Fundamental importance to develop climate modeling capacity
in Brazil, through analyses of global and regional climate
models for current and future climate change scenarios.
Regional Modeling
Who would be able to run a regional model in
Brazil?
- Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies
(CPTEC) of the National Space Research Institute
(INPE), under the Ministry of Science and
Technology.
Which model should be used?
- ETA/CPTEC
Eta/CPTEC
• ETA model, used at National Center for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in the United
States, was configured to run over the South
American continent, with a resolution of 80 km.
• This limited area model has 38 atmospheric layers
and its domain includes part of the adjacent Atlantic
and Pacific Oceans.
• The model usually runs in weather prediction mode
with a 6-hour forecast, and extending to 72 hours. It
is currently run to make seasonal climate predictions,
with horizontal resolutions of 80 and 40 km.
Eta/CPTEC (2)
• Preliminary study: the regional ETA model was used to produce
predictions of one month in South America under dry and rainy
conditions (for some extreme rainfall events, in an experimental
mode).
• The ETA/CPTEC regional model proved capable of producing
one-month climatic predictions for South America in a
continuous run.
• The results were compared to predictions by the GCM in order
to evaluate the positive contribution of regional runs. The
regional predictions showed that the greater resolution could
provide more details to the predictions, especially for the
temperature fields near the surface.
• The magnitude of variables predicted were in general closer to
the observations.
Eta/CPTEC (3)
•
The results of these preliminary tests were encouraging.
•
In the initial phase of the project “Extended Range Simulations over
South America” the ETA/CPTEC model was for the first time
integrated in the “climatic mode”, that is, run continuously for a
greater period of time than that used to produce weather predictions
(60 hours) over South America.
•
The model has been evaluated in terms of stability and quality of
predictions produced for an integration of the longer period, proving
capable of reproducing the climatic conditions with good spatial
resolution.
•
Completion of a climatic run of ETA/CPTEC, of at least 10 years, to
represent the climatology of this model, and thus to study and
determine the abilities of the model and the predictability of the
climate in different regions of the country and of South America,
similar to the evaluations made with CPTEC’s global climate model.
Regional Modeling
• CPTEC’s climate modeling strategy includes global climate
models and regional climate models nested in a global climate
model (dynamic downscaling).
• For downscaling of global climate change scenarios to be
developed at CPTEC, the regional model to be used is
ETA/CPTEC, nested in version 3 of the Hadley Center’s
coupled global climate model (HadCM3H, a special version of
HadGEM1 (or HadCM3) and ECHAM5 with a higher
horizontal resolution).
• Spacial resolution of 40 km – regional future climate
predictions (2010-2100) and extreme scenarios A2 (high
emission) and B2 (low emission) of GHG for South America.
CPTEC/INPE
• Equipped with supercomputers SX-4/8A and
SX-6.
• These supercomputers are capable of processing
up to 16 and 768 billion floating decimal point
arithmetic operations per second, respectively.
• Enables CPTEC to provide reliable weather forecasts
for the entire country and also for South America.
• It is also possible to run global and regional climate
models to generate climatic scenarios for the 21st
century.
CPTEC’s Computing System
Computers are fed with information from:
•
METEOSAT;
• GOES satellites;
• WMO data network;
• national networks under the responsibility of National Institute of Meteorology
- INMET, under the Ministry of Agriculture;
• Air Space Control Departament - DEPV, under the Air Force Ministry;
•
Navigation and Hydrography Department - DHN, under the Ministry of the
Navy;
• state meteorology centers and other international centers.
• satellites SCD-1 and 2 - collect environmental data, also play an important role
in collection the information necessary to INPE’s meteorological research.
- Observation network called meteorological and hydrological Data Collection
Platforms - PCDs were implemented in 1996 throughout the country. The PCDs
are operated jointly by CPTEC and ANEEL, and transmit meteorological and
hydrological information in real time to a center operated by CPTEC, through
SCD-1 and 2.
Modeling and the SNC
Outcome 2.1:
- downscaling methods for Brazil that
can be applied to the climate change
scenarios based on global climate
models, in order to give more detailed
projections of climate with a higher
spatial resolution than that provided by
a global climate model.
Modeling and the SNC
Outputs:
1) analyze climate change scenarios for South America
based on global climate change models from the IPCCData Distribution Center (IPCC-DDC) for different SRES
scenarios (provided by the IPCC-DDC);
2) develop and improve the regional Eta/CPTEC model;
3) develop and analyze climate-change downscaled scenarios
for Brazil, making use of the new super computer being
installed at the Center for Weather Forecasting and
Climate Studies – CPTEC;
4) enable the specialists of the CPTEC/INPE (National
Institute for Space Research) to develop capacity for
climate modeling on longer time scales, and to develop
capacity building in V&A.
Financing
• Brazil and GEF
• GEF – under the SNC
• Regional or National project ?
• Participation of South American countries in the
future results of the Eta/CPTEC model activities.
• Strenghtnening capacity – regional training
Regional modeling
• Invited Countries :
»
»
»
»
»
»
»
»
»
Argentina;
Bolivia;
Chile;
Colombia;
Ecuador;
Paraguay;
Perú;
Uruguay.
Venezuela (?).
Argentina
• Sent to:
» Señor Lic. Hernán Carlino
(Coordinador Unidad de Cambio Climático Secretaria de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustentable,
Ministerio de Salud y Ambiente)
• Experts:
» Dr. Mario Nunez – CIMA (Centro de Investigación
del Mar y Atmósfera) – Universidad de Buenos
Aires (UBA)
» Dr. Carolina Vera – CIMA (Centro de Investigación
del Mar y Atmósfera) – Universidad de Buenos
Aires (UBA)
» Dr. Vicente Barros – CIMA (Centro de Investigación
del Mar y Atmósfera) – Universidad de Buenos
Aires (UBA)
Bolivia
• Sent to:
» Señor Oscar Paz Rada
(Coordinador General del Programa Nacional de
Cambios Climáticos - Viceministerio de Recursos
Naturales y Medio Ambiente)
• Expert:
» Ing. Carlos Diaz Escóbar (Director Nacional de
Meteorología e Hidrología)
» Ing. Miguel Angel Ontiveros - Enlace PNCC
(Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología –
SENAMHI)
» Ing. Gladis Tesoro Michel - Enlace PNCC (Servicio
Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología –
SENAMHI)
» Ing. Magali García Cárdenas (Responsable del Plan
Nacional de Adaptación – Programa Nacional de
Cambios Climáticos)
Chile
• Sent to:
» Señora Marcela Main (Comisión Nacional del
Medio Ambiente (CONAMA) - Ministerio
Secretaría General de Presidencia)
• Expert:
» Dr. Maisa Rojas – Universidad de Chile.
Colombia
• Sent to:
» A Señora María Andrea Albán Durán
(Coordinadora de Asuntos Ambientales - Ministerio
de Relaciones Exteriores)
• Experts:
» Maximiliano Henriquez Daza - Subdirector de
Meteorología (Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología
y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM))
» María Constanza Martínez - Profesional
Especializado (Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología
y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM))
» Franklin Ruiz Murcia - Investigador Científico
(Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios
Ambientales (IDEAM))
Ecuador
• Sent to:
» Señor Julio Cornejo Vargas
(Coordinador de la Unidad de Cambios Climáticos Ministerio del Ambiente)
• Experts:
» Dr. Juan Palácios – INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de
Meteorología y Hidrología)
» Dr. Laureano Andrade – INAMHI (Instituto
Nacional de Meteorología y Hidrología)
» Dr. Enrique Palacios – INAMHI (Instituto Nacional
de Meteorología y Hidrología)
» Dr. Jose Luis Santos – CIIFEN (Centro de
Investigaciones sobre el Fenómeno El Niño)
» Dr. Remigio Galarraga – Escuela Nacional
Politécnica en Quito
Paraguay
• Sent to:
» Señora Lilian Portillo
(Directora - Secretaría del Ambiente (SEAM))
• Experts:
» Dr. Ing. Julian Baez – DHN (Dirección de
Hidrología y Meteorología).
» Dr. Ing. Genaro Coronel – Universidad Nacional de
Asunción.
Uruguay
• Sent to:
» Señor Luis Santos
(Coordinador Técnico de la Unidad de Cambio
Climático - Ministerio de Vivienda,
Ordenamiento Territorial y Medio Ambiente )
• Experts:
» Dr. Ing. Mario Bidegain – DNM (Dirección
Nacional de Meteorología).
» Dr. Rafael Terra – Universidad de la Republica.
CPTEC Main Researchers
» Dr. Jose A. Marengo,
CPTEC/INPE- Project
Coordinator
» Dr. Carlos A. Nobre,
CPTEC/INPE.
» Dra. Sin Chan Chou,
CPTEC/INPE.
Financing
• Brazil and GEF
• GEF – under the SNC
• Regional or National project ?
• Participation of South American countries in the
future results of the Eta/CPTEC model activities.
• Strenghtnening capacity – regional training
IPCC AR4
Eta/CPTEC
Results and Products Envisaged
V&A Strategy
• develop a preliminary analysis of the impacts associated to
climate change in key areas in accordance with Brazilian
national circumstances, mainly in those areas that vulnerability
is influenced by physical, social and economic factors.
• The initial goal is to analyze areas considered to be
strategically relevant, where the impacts associated to climate
change can be important to Brazil, and that could be studied
independently while Brazilian future climate scenarios have not
been concluded.
• This strategy would correspond to the steps “Assessing current
vulnerability” and “Assessing future climate risks” of the
Adaptation Policy Framework of the UNDP/GEF.
• However, further development of some results of this Outcome
will depend on future results achieved in developing climate
regional models, which will provide more reliable scenarios for
South America, in respect to the impacts of climate change
either on mean surface temperature or on precipitation patterns.
Priority Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Health Sector (including
one activity: study the vulnerability to climate related diseases - such as
malaria, leishmaniasis and cholera - and adaptation measures);
Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Energy Sector (including
one activity: evaluate the vulnerability of the power sector and possible
adaptation measures);
Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation related to Water Resources,
Floods and Desertification (including one activity: estimate the
biophysical impacts of climate change on hydrologic resources in terms of
water quantity – annual and seasonal distribution);
Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Agriculture (including
one activity: study of the possible effects of climate change on the
Brazilian agricultural sector);
Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Coastal Zone
Management (including one activity: analyze the overall sea level rise in
Brazil as a consequence of climate change);
Report on Vulnerability and Biodiversity (including one activity: analyze
the climate change effects on selected biodiversity aspects in Brazil, which
is coral’s photo symbiotic organisms – coral bleaching)
Priority Studies
• Coordination between the elaboration of the
Regional modeling of Climate and Climate
Change Scenarios and the vulnerability and
adaptation research and studies concerning
strategic sectors that are vulnerable to the
impacts associated with climate change in
Brazil
Eventos extremos anuales de lluvia (izquierda) y de temperatura (derecha) para la
América del Sur al sur de 10o S, para el escenário A2, período 2071-2100, en
relacción al clima actual (1961-90). Los escenários fueran derivados del modelo
regional HadRM3.
CPTEC Homepage
http://www.cptec.inpe.br
http://www.mct.gov.br/clima
Aguiye
Muchas Gracias!
Thank you !
Obrigado!
[email protected]
[email protected]