Transcript Climate Change, Tipping Points, and the Media

Climate Change, Tipping Points,
and the Media
Erika Engelhaupt
Environmental Science and Technology
Arctic Forum 2008
Gore movie
IPCC TAR
Kyoto Protocol
“skeptics”
Katrina
UN Development Program
2007/08 Report
Has media coverage reached a
tipping point?
How Industry May Change Climate
The New York Times
The amount of carbon dioxide
in the air will double by the year
2080 and raise the temperature
an average of at least 4 per
cent.
Will this picture save the world?
Telegraph March 4, 2007
“Drowning polar bears may provide the
human 'tipping point' to tackle climate
change”
Scientists: Most Polar Bears Dead By 2050
CBS News Sept 7, 2007
Changing coverage
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US study
• ‘balanced’ reporting (roughly equal coverage to
both sides) was high in 2003-04, declined
2005-06
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UK study
• Content analysis found tabloids did not
improve accuracy from 2000-2006; UK and US
“prestige press” did
• “interviews indicate that inaccurate reporting
may be linked to the lack of specialist
journalists in the tabloid press.”
Boykoff, Area 2007
Boykoff, Env. Res. Letters 2008
Journalistic Norms
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Novelty
Balance
Authority
Personalization
Dramatization
 Not educators or translators
 Different peer review
Culture clash?
Boykoff and Boykoff 2007
Americans naming climate change as the world’s biggest environmental
problem jumped from 16% in 2006 to 33% in 2007.
(Washington Post/Time/ABC/Stanford University)
82% of Americans believe global warming exists, up 5 points from 2005.
(Fox News, February 2007)
Tipping Points
What Are Tipping Points?
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James Hansen: a point where calamitous change becomes
unavoidable
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Statisticians: a bifurcation in a dynamical system
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sea ice scientist : A threshold such that a rapid change is
imminent and irreversible
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sea level rise scientist : A step change in climate, when the
climate system shifts to some new state. (i.e. the melting
of ice in glaciers and ice sheets)
scientist at policy NGO: an abrupt or irreversible change in
the internal dynamics in a system in response to an external
driver crossing a threshold
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Policy: large shift in attitudes or political will
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Media: big change?
Tipping Points
Carbon Emissions: Catch them if you can
CNN International - May 4, 2008
Many scientists believe the CO2 "tipping point" has been passed
already. There is already too much C02 sitting in the atmosphere.
Debate on Climate Shifts to Issue of Irreparable Change
Some Experts on Global Warming Foresee 'Tipping Point' When It Is Too Late to Act
Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post
January 29, 2006; A1
Senator James Inhofe (R-OK), 2007:
“the man-made global warming fear machine crossed the ‘tipping point’ in 2007.
I am convinced that future climate historians will look back at 2007 as the year
the global warming fears began crumbling.”
I never found the notion of "tipping points" to be a very useful contribution
to public discourse. The concept is ill-defined and very prone to be
misunderstood — as in: we've passed a tipping point so it's too late to do
anything (might as well have a party).
-Ray Pierrehumbert on realclimate.org
What You Can Do
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Your first challenge: define tipping points
Prepare for interviews
Know your PIO-- help with press releases
Redirect reporter if needed
Give reporters feedback
Encourage students interested in writing
Do not give up
UN Development Program
2007/08 Report
40 newspapers