Transcript Zes manieren om na te denken over de waterketen

Govert D. Geldof
Geldof c.s. (Netherlands) & DTU Environment Lyngby
VUPTI Meeting
Taastrup, 9 June 2010
Presentation
 Climate Change Adaptation is complex?
 Top 5:
1. Accepting complexity
2. The power of practice
3. Making perceptions explicit
4. The importance of history
5. Story telling
 Conclusions
Climate Change Adaptation
 Adaptation is not new: social and natural systems have
always adapted to change
 New: pro-active adaptation (a hundred years)
 Complex?
Climate Change
Bifurcation
Point
Danger
2010
Time
2100
Arnhem
Bifurcation point
Nijmegen
Complexity
 There are many uncertainties:
 Is there a bifurcation point?
 If yes: are we approaching the bifurcation point or did
we already pass it?
 What measures do we have to take and what will be the
effect?
 There are many people involved with different
opinions: we depend on them (e.g. politicians &
citizens)
 Etc.
1: Accept complexity
It makes
life simpler
Paradox
When we accept that we might
fail, the probability of success
will increase
"Conceiving a safety without risk is like
seeking love without courting the danger
of rejection“ (Wildavsky, 1988)
2. The Power of Practice
 Complex processes can only be dealt with in practice
 Prudence: develop practical knowledge
Theory
Practice
Example: maintenance
3. Making perceptions explicit
 People have different perceptions both about problem
and solutions (→ complexity)
 Many projects fail because people involved pre-assume
that other people have the same perception as they
have
 Ask:
 What do you think the problem is?
 What is your role?
 What is your responsibility?
Let’s adapt
•Peak rain and flooding
•Droughts – water shortage
•Heat Island effect
•Wind
•Connection to other aspects of the
urban environment (traffic, quality of
housing, facilities, social safety, etc.)
Dep of real estate
City planning department
Dep of street & traffic
Citizens
Organisations
Private developers
Schools
Etcetera
Perceptions become explicit when you visit concrete projects
4. The Importance of History
In complex processes history does
not fade away
Planning like this
does not work for
complex processes
Then
Now
Measure
Measure
Measure
Measure
Measure
Measure
Measure
Measure
“You have to know the history to understand
the present and to shape the future”
Golden Age
Industrial Revolution
Post war restoration
Crisis and new beginning
5. Story telling
Spatial organisation directs Water
Agriculture
Housing
Leis ure
Water directs spatial organisation
Agriculture
Indus trial
Indus trial
Water
storage
Water
storage
Agriculture
Natural
areas
Housing
Leis ure
> Housing
Leis ure
Natural
areas
Information
Knowledge
Theoretical
concept 1
Story telling
Theoretical
concept 5
Theoretical
concept 2
Theoretical
concept 3
Theoretical
concept 4
Generic
Narrative
Story 1
Story 5
Story 2
Story 3
Story 9
Story 4
Story 6
Story 7
Story 8
Specific
Story n
A good narrative
 A story with a head, a tail and a punch line
 Constructed out of the languages that people used to
tell their stories (no scientific or political blabla)
 It is specific, but also includes generic elements
 Is recognised by the people that brought in the stories
 New scientific knowledge is connected to it
 Decision makers cannot ignore it
 Often: it includes a metaphor
Residential area Lewenborg
Theoretical
concept 1
Story telling
Theoretical
concept 5
Theoretical
concept 2
Theoretical
concept 3
Theoretical
concept 4
Generic
Narrative about ponds, litter
and social safety
Story 1
Story 5
Story 2
Story 3
Story 9
Story 4
Story 6
Story 7
Story 8
Specific
Story n
Conclusions
1. When it is complex, accept that it is complex
2. Real integration is only possible in practice, so act as
close to practice as possible and appreciate
practitioners
3. Ask people involved specifically about their
perceptions (goals, roles, responsibilities, etc.)
4. You have to know the history to understand the
present and to shape the future: history will not fade
away
5. Listen to stories and connect them to the theoretical
concepts: constructing narratives
Thanks for your attention …