Transcript Our Insatiable Appetite for Energy

Park Lane Methodist Church
Sunday 14th May 2006
Climate Change and the Environment
Our Insatiable Appetite for Energy
POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
Keith Tovey
Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук
14
Energy Science Director
CRed Project
Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy
• This series is looking at the Environment, Climate
Change and Global Warming.
• Last week we saw that Climate Change is partly natural,
but most effects in last 50 years have been from man’s
activities – burning of fossil fuels for energy
• Today’s talk will review what resources and their
potential for the next 50 years.
• Next Week we will go on to consider the hard choices
facing us
• Then: what can we do about it?
•
what should we as Christians do about it?
CRed
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation:
School of Environmental Sciences
Lay Chairman, Norwich East Deanery
Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy
Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
• Summer ice
coverage of
Arctic Polar
Region
– Nasa satellite
imagery
2003
1979
CRed
•20% reduction in 24 years
Source: Nasa
www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
CURRENT AND PROJECTED USAGE
Country
Energy Requirement
Population Per Capita
World
12.0 TW
6000 M
2.0 kW
USA
3.0 TW
300 M
10.0 kW
Europe
2.0 TW
350 M
5.7 kW
UK
0.3 TW
60 M
5.0 kW
Projected Saturation Population in 2050 -- 10000 M
consumption averages current UK value
Requirement in 2050 = 50 TW 50 billion kW.
consumption reaches current USA value
Requirement in 2050 = 100 TW
i.e. 10 times current demand
Range of forecasts 20 - 100 TW with a likely value
in range 30 - 50 TW (say 40 TW).
To discuss now
• Is 10 billion a realistic assumption for population?
• Or will Bird Flu solve our problems and halve that figure?
• Does 4 kW per person seem reasonable - 80% of our
current level, 70% of European Level, 40% or US level
• What exactly do we mean by renewable energy
resources?
• Are any of the following resources renewable?
– Geothermal, Peat, Hydro??
– Gas, Oil, Coal??
• To discuss later
• Are there differences in our meaning of Renewable with
Solar, Wind, Biomass?
• What is needed to bring our use of resources into harmony
with nature on God’s planet?
PROJECTED LIFESPAN OF RESOURCES
1 trillion = 1 million millions
decades:- Oil, Gas, 235U, Tar sands, Oil Shales
centuries: Coal, Geothermal, D – T fusion, 238U,
millennia: D – D fusion
232Th
projected average consumption of 40 TW
annual consumption will be:350 trillion units (kWh)
at present it is 90 trillion units
Compare this to the Current World Proven Reserves:Oil Reserves:Gas Reserves:Uranium:Coal Reserves:Uranium (Fast Breeder):Fusion (Deuterium):-
1500 trillion units
1500 trillion units
1000 trillion units
7000 trillion units
25000 trillion units
275 billion trillion units
"RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES"
Orders of magnitude only
Practically Achievable:10 - 50 million kW – Tidal
100 – 500 million kW - Geothermal; OTEC; Biomass;
Wastes
1 – 5 billion kW - Hydro; Wind; Waves
10 – 50 billion kW – Solar
Projected demand is 40 billion kW
We will need all the renewables we can get
POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
Theoretical
Practical
Realised to
date
TW
GW
GW
3
50
1
NONSOLAR
Tidal
1 TW = 1 billion kW
1 GW = 1 million kW
France, Russia,
China
4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
Theoretical
Practical
Realised to
date
TW
GW
GW
Tidal
3
50
1
France, Russia,
China
Geothermal
30
60+
10
Italy, Iceland,
USA, New
Zealand
NONSOLAR
1 TW = 1 billion kW
1 GW = 1 million kW
POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
Theoretical
Practical
Realised to
date
TW
GW
GW
Tidal
3
50
1
France, Russia,
China
Geothermal
30
60+
10
Italy, Iceland,
USA, New
Zealand
10*
USA, Israel:
third world
Solar Pump
NONSOLAR
Normal hot water circuit
Solar Circuit
SOLAR
Direct
(on land)
30000
30000
POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES - Solar
It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?
House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles
- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!
POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
Theoretical
Practical
Realised to
date
TW
GW
GW
30
1000
50 and rising
rapidly
SOLAR
Indirect
Wind
1 TW = 1 billion kW
1 GW = 1 million kW
USA,
Denmark,
Germany,
Netherlands,
Spain ~ 1500
MW in UK
POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
1 TW = 1 billion kW
1 GW = 1 million kW
POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
Theoretical
Practical
Realised to
date
TW
GW
GW
30
1000
20 and rising
rapidly
SOLAR
Indirect
Wind
USA,
Denmark,
Germany,
Netherlands,
Spain ~ 800
MW in UK
POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
Theoretical
Practical
Realised to
date
TW
GW
GW
Wind
30
1000
20 and rising
rapidly
Waves
3
30
0.01
UK, Norway,
Japan
OTEC
30
300
0.001
USA
SOLAR
Indirect
USA,
Denmark,
Pelamis: 750 kW device installed August 2004: Orkney
Germany,
Operated for 10 days – was in dock for 9 months at Lyness
Netherlands,
Spain ~ 800
MW in UK
1 TW = 1 billion kW
1 GW = 1 million kW
POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
Theoretical
Transport Fuels:
TW
• Biodiesel?
Practical
Realised to
date
GW
GW
SOLAR
• Bioethanol?
Indirect
Hydro
30+
2000
400
Biomass/
Wastes
300
1000
10-100?
USA, Brazil,
Canada,
Scandinavia,
Switzerland,
Malaysia etc.
Various
Brazil Bioethanol
Hydrogen????
The Star of the East
A vision of the future
for Norwich
A vision for Dongtan
Shanghai
International
Airport
country park
Approx 1km
3
turbine viewing &
display gallery
energy station
(proposed residential
development)
2
river walk
& quay
floating farmers
market
R & D, factories
of the future
4
(country park)
5
interactive
learning centre
working environmental
organisations
market
6
low carbon
residential ring
Star of the East
Alsop Architects
View from Thorpe Station
The STAR will be 50% higher than the
pylons which will be demolished
• To discuss
• Are there differences in our meaning of Renewable
with Solar, Wind, Biomass?
• What is needed to bring our use of resources into
harmony with nature on God’s planet?
Conclusions
• We need to think carefully about our options
WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/
This presentation will be available from
tomorrow at the above site:
follow the links to Academic Resources
• Next week the Hard Choices facing us
• ROCs, TOCs, HOCs, LATs, ETS and all that
Are you up to the Challenge?:
Will you make a CRed pledge to combat
Climate Change?
"If you do not change direction, you
may end up where you are heading."
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher