Transcript The Joint Policy Committee

The Joint Policy
Committee
July 20, 2012
1
JPC: Bay Area Climate &
Energy Resilience Project
 “Preparing the Bay Area for a
Changing Climate”
 June 7th Workshop
 Kresge Foundation Grant
2
Problem We Are Trying to Solve
 Reinventing the Adaptation Wheel
 Small and mid-sized cities don’t
have capacity
 Some impacts cross city and
county boundaries — Solutions will
affect neighbors
3
Problem We Are Trying to Solve
 Infrastructure owned by a
responsible party — Natural system
protection, health more complex
 State providing products and
services — Can do this more
efficiently thru regional
collaborations
4
Preparing the Bay Area for a
Changing Climate
5
June 7th Workshop @ Metro
 80 participants
 18-month
roadmap
 Bay Area story
 Project spotlights
6
Kresge Foundation Proposal
 Six-month initial grant to organize
collaborative
 $75K - $100K
 20+ stakeholder meetings: Increase support
for adaptation, ID needs, shape plan
 Special work plans: Social equity, GHGs +
adaptation, research + action
 White paper: Governance/decision-making
 Interim structure & 12-month action plan
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Rising Bay Area Sea Level
Source: California Climate Indicators, 2010
8
California
Average
Annual
Temperature
+ 1.7˚F
1895-2011
Source: Western Regional
Climate Center
9
More
California
warming
at night
Sources: NCDC (2007),
Gershunov (2008)
10
Bay Area Temp Data Mixed
 NBWA 100-year study: + 2.7˚F. Less warming
near coast. More warming with increasing
distance from ocean.
 Lebassi 50-year Bay Area study: “Complex
pattern” with cooling in low-elevation areas
with marine air penetration and warming in
inland areas.
 Null 1970-2000 vs. 1980-2010 Bay Area data:
San Rafael, SF, Oakland, San Jose cooled
slightly. Napa, Santa Rosa, Vacaville warmed
slightly.
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Longer Time Frames BETTER
Source: UCAR for National Science Foundation
Bay Area &
California
Precipitation
NO overall
trend
Source: Western Regional
Climate Center
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Significant
Sierra
Changes
Tahoe: More
Rain Less
Snow
Source: Coats, UC Davis
14
Shrinking
Sierra
Glaciers
Source: Basagic, 2008
15
Less Runoff April-July
Source: CA Dept of Water Resources
Complex Forces at Work:
More/Larger Western Wildfires
Source: Westerling, 2006
Economic Impacts in Bay Area
 In California, climate risk—the
damage that will occur if no action
is taken—would include tens of
billions per year in direct economic
costs for public health, agriculture,
tourism and other sectors.”
Source: Roland-Holst, 2008
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Economic Impacts in Bay Area
 The amount of high-value Northern
California land suitable for growing
premium wine grapes could be cut
in half by 2040 because of global
warming, based on the
conservative assumption of +2˚F
globally.
Source: Diffenbaugh, 2011
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Health Impacts in Bay Area
 The 2006 California heat wave,
unprecedented in length for
Northern California, had a
significant and documented affect
on emergency rooms visits and
hospitalizations. Young children
and the elderly were especially at
risk
(Knowlton, 2011)
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Ecosystem Impacts in Bay Area
 Climate change will impact the
future health of San Francisco Bay.
This includes droughts altering
freshwater flows and water use,
and floods and sea level rise
altering landscapes and human
behavior.
Source: State of the Bay, 2011
21
Water Impacts in Bay Area
 The Delta is California’s Katrina
waiting to happen. -- Sen. Joe Simitian
 The Delta, which provides a
substantial amount of the Bay
Area’s water, including half of
Silicon Valley’s water, is threatened
by extreme storms, sea level rise,
land subsidence, and earthquakes.
Source: Integrated Regional Water Management Plan
22
Human Impacts in Bay Area
 An individual’s vulnerability to
heatwaves, high air pollution days,
floods, fires, and other climaterelated events is affected by age,
income, ethnicity, social isolation,
transportation access, living
conditions, and other issues.
Source: Pacific Institute, 2010
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Bay Area SLR Projects
(examples)
 Adapting to Rising Tides
 Hayward Shoreline Sea Level Rise
Project
 South Bay $1 Billion Levee Drive
 SFEP Climate Ready Estuaries Pilot
Project
 Our Coast, Our Future
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Bay Area Ecosystems Projects
(examples)
 Bay Area Ecosystems Climate
Change Consortium
 North Bay Climate Adaptation
Initiative
 PRBO Conservation Science Climate
Change Program
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Bay Area Water Projects
(examples)
 SFPUC Sensitivity of Upper
Tuolumne River Flow to Climate
Change
 Sonoma County Water Agency
Carbon Free Water by 2020
 Bay Delta Conservation Plan
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Bay Area Energy Projects
(examples)
 Bay Area Smart Energy 2020
 Bay Area Bridge to Clean Economy
 Marin Clean Energy
 Regional Renewable Energy
Procurement Project
 HELiOS Project (Solar Schools)
27
Bay Area Resilience Projects
(examples)
 Bay Localize Climate and Energy
Adaptation — Community
Resilience Toolkit
 ABAG Regional Disaster Resilience
Initiative
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Lack of technical solutions is generally
not the issue in California. The
biggest barriers to implementing
adaptation plans are institutional,
motivational, and economic.
(Moser, Ekstrom, 2012)
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Benefits to JPC Agencies
 Help cities and counties
 Increase support for sea level rise
strategy and other measures
 SCS I and II input
 Reduce urban heat island impacts
(ozone, health, energy)
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The Joint Policy
Committee
July 20, 2012
31