Transcript Global Climate Change

Global Climate Change
And Public Policy
Key Policy Documents
United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
Kyoto Protocol
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Some Background Stuff
Environmental problems & public policy
responses take place at the juncture of
the natural world and human behavior,
which can be frustrating
But, this is the hand which we have been
dealt, so…
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Human Realities
Market failure (externalities)
Time frames
 Our life span
 Election cycle
Jurisdictional (political) boundaries
 International
 National
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Human Realities, cont.
Different “actors,” different positions
Getting agreement on anything often
requires bargaining, compromise
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International Environmental
Policy Formation Takes Place
In the context of national sovereignty
Through negotiations leading to treaties
among sovereign states
In an effort to form “regimes” (sets of
institutions, agreed-upon behaviors, etc.
aimed at addressing a problem or issue
 Conventions
 Protocols
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National Sovereignty
 Nation states may largely do as they wish within their
own boundaries
 Cooperation on boundary-spanning problems is
necessary, but is often difficult to achieve
 Nations may agree to cooperate with others, but
 There is no authoritative international legislative body
 There is no authoritative international executive
 So, as a general rule, nation states may not be compelled to
do that which they do not wish to do, or not do that which
they do wish to do
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Conventions
What?
 Multiparty treaties
 Aimed at establishing cooperation in
responding to a specific issue or set of issues
 May be joined by additional nations after
having been adopted
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Some Important Terms
Signatories - The nations which have signed
the treaty
Parties - The nations which have signed &
ratified the agreement (i.e. are full participants
in the agreement)
Secretariat -- The administrative body
which is responsible for implementing the
agreement (may be UN body, e.g. UNEP, or free
standing, e.g. Climate Change)
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Some Important Terms, cont.
Framework conventions
 Establish basic procedures, or “rules of the game”
for dealing with a problem
 May include a little substance (but not much)
 Frequently provide for a regular Conference of
Parties (COP)
o Meetings of nations party to the treaty (&, often, other
interested parties) to discuss implementation, progress,
enforcement, modifications, etc.
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Some Important Terms, cont.
Protocols: Follow up agreements which
deal with substance
 e.g. Vienna Convention on Ozone (1985) &
Montreal Protocol (1987 & 1990)
 Framework Convention on Climate Change
(1992) & Kyoto Protocol (1997)
NGOs & IGOs
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NGOs (Non-governmental
Organizations )
Private interest groups (e.g. Greenpeace)
Often lobby/pressure national
governments & international meetings
Have been very active in climate change
Have a (sort of) formal role in Kyoto
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IGOs or INGOs (International
Governmental Organizations )
International bureaucracies, often
affiliated with the United Nations
Can play an important role
 Agenda-setting
 Implementation
 Funds handling
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A Few Important IGOs
United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP)
United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Global Environment Facility (GEF)
 A funding entity designed do aid developing nations
afford the costs of environmental protection
 Originally got its funding from World Bank & UNEP
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Negotiating Environmental
Treaties
Environmental treaties are negotiated on
an ad hoc basis
 Participants are self-selected
 One nation, one vote
Nation states negotiate & vote
NGOs do not - but they can lobby &
(depending on circumstances) participate
in discussions
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Negotiating Environmental
Treaties, cont.
North – South (developing nations v. developed
nations) disputes are common, and have
influenced the climate change debate
Treaties with global implications may be
negotiated by a minority of nations
Treaty negotiations may not include key nations
Treaties which are in force may not include key
nations
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Nation States &
Environmental Treaties
Their international positions arise from
 Domestic political factors
 National (self?) interest
o Perceived costs, risks (& benefits) of an
environmental regime
o International politics
o Subnational actors (states, cities)
o Existing commitments (treaties, etc.)
 Scientific evidence
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Nation States &
Environmental Treaties, cont.
They play various roles in making
international environmental policy
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Lead state
Supporting State
Swing state
Veto state
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The U.S. & International
Climate Change Policy
We participated in the negotiations
leading up to the Framework Convention
on Climate Change & the Kyoto Protocol
We signed both treaties
We have ratified the Framework
Convention, but not the Kyoto Protocol (&
President Bush has indicated that he will
not push to do so)
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U.S. Treaty Processes
Ratification
 If he wishes to try for ratification, the
president must submit the treaty to the
Senate for ratification approval
o The Foreign Affairs committee (&, possibly, other
committees) review it, &, if they wish to do so,
send it to the full Senate for vote
o A two-thirds majority is necessary for ratification
o Clinton, Bush & Kyoto
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U.S. Treaty Processes, cont.
Implementing legislation
 Many treaties are not complete in & of themselves.
The Congress must pass further (implementing)
legislation before we really begin to perform our
treaty obligations (e.g. the Montreal Protocol & the
1990 Clean Air Act Amendments)
 Goes through ordinary legislative procedures
o Simple majorities (50% plus one) in both houses
o Committees
o Presidential approval
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U.S. Treaty Processes, cont.
After implementing legislation has been adopted
it may be subjected to court challenge
It must be implemented by the bureaucracy
 Assignment to a specific agency
 Funding, etc.
 Rule-making procedures are complex, so are
enforcement actions
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Things To Remember About
U.S. Policy Making Processes
There are a lot of opportunities to kill
proposed policies (e.g. a treaty
ratification), proponents must win in all
venues, opponents need only win in one
Even winning in the Congress & White
House does not guarantee success
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Factors Influencing U.S.
Climate Change Policy
American preference for incremental approaches
to policy making
Concerns re.
 China, India (& other developing nations)
 Impact on our economy
Partisanship
Political “Seasons”
Other political agenda items
Interest groups
And many other factors
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Climate Change Convention
Negotiated prior to 1992 “Earth Summit,”
but opened for signing at that conference
40 “Annex 1” nations (largely
industrialized) agreed to take the lead role
in cutting projected 2000 emissions back
to 1990 levels.
 No deadlines
 No post-2000 targets
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Climate Change Convention,
cont.
Entered into force in 1994 when the
necessary 50 nations had ratified
Weak on specifics due to
 U.S. opposition
 Developing nations opposition to having
emissions controls applied to themselves
Support for a stronger treaty appeared
early (at first COP)
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Kyoto Protocol Provisions
Annex 1 (industrialized) nations
 Agreed to reduce their overall greenhouse gas
emissions by at least 5.2% below 1990 levels
between 2008 – 2012
 Some “differentiation” on target reductions among
those nations (see Table 2)
Developing nations
 No targeted reductions
 No “opt-in” clause whereby developing nations could
voluntarily adopt emissions reduction targets
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Kyoto Provisions, cont.
“Flexibility mechanisms” (for cost control)
 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
o Developed nations may finance projects that
reduce 3rd world emissions, thereby gaining credits
applicable to their own mandatory limits
o E.g “Carbon sinks”
 Joint Implementation
o Similar to CDM, but involves western, marketoriented nations and former Soviet bloc nations
(economies in transition)
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Kyoto Provisions, cont.
Emissions trading
 Annex 1 nations which have achieved their
commitments can sell excess emissions
credits to other Annex 1 nations which are
having difficulties in meeting their credits
 A U.S. initiative, based on similar provisions in
1990 Clean Air Act amendments
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Bringing Kyoto Into Force
Needed to be ratified by 55 nations,
representing 55% of 1990 CO2 emissions
 U.S. is biggest emitter, our refusal to ratify
made it difficult to assemble the required
number of “right” ratifications, and
 Encouraged some nations to seek special
deals in return for their ratification (e.g.
Russia & Ukraine need not reduce below their
1990 levels)
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Some Issues With Kyoto
Are the regime’s goals & mechanisms
sufficient to accomplish goals? In a
meaningful time frame?
Will emissions trading be effective at the
international level?
 Weak enforcement mechanisms
 Special treatment for Russia (not required to
reduce below 1990 levels, lots of unused
Soviet-era industrial capacity, etc.)
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Some Issues, cont.
Compliance
 Reporting, etc. is weak, may be difficult to tell
when a nation is not complying
 What to do if a nation is not complying?
Developing nations
 Some are not big contributors to the problem,
but others are
 Makes it more difficult to persuade national
leaders to agree to the treaty
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Some Issues, cont.
Can the regime be effective without U.S.
(& Australia) ratification
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The U.S. – Current Policy
Based on
 Some questioning of the existence of climate
change
 Belief that human activity doesn’t cause it
 Belief that it will not be disruptive, etc.
Kyoto will not go to the Senate
Voluntary controls
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Kyoto & The U.S.
Could Still Be Ratified
Things can change rapidly (e.g. acid rain
& 1990 CAAA)
 Elections
 “Agenda setting”
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Is Kyoto Ratification
Necessary?
State-level action is always possible
 California
Federal legislation, even in the absence of
ratification, could accomplish worthwhile
objectives
 Incremental change can accomplish a lot
 Politics is different, may be an easier “sell”
 E.g.’s: carbon taxes, subsidies for clean technologies
initiatives
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