Transcript 3b.Frey.GulfCoastHurricane Conference

The Impact of Climate Change on
Hurricane Flooding Inundation and
Economic Damages
Ashley Frey
Dr. Francisco Olivera, Dr. Jennifer Irish, Mir Emad Mousavi,
Dr. Billy Edge, Dr. James Kaihatu, Katy Song, Lauren Dunkin, and Sean Finn
November 12, 2008
Gulf Coast Hurricane Conference
Sponsored by the National Commission on Energy Policy
Outline
• Introduction to Hurricane Flooding
• Objectives of Research
• Site Location and Selection of
Hurricanes
• Climate Projections
• Methodology
• Results and Discussion
• Flooding Inundation
• Property Damages
http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=7957
• Conclusions
2
Hurricane Flooding
2005 Hurricane Season
• Most Tropical Storms – 27
• Most Hurricanes – 15
• Most Intense Hurricane –
Wilma (882 mb)
• Cost – $50 Billion
http://www.theage.com.au/ftimages/2005/08/30/1125302540219.html
http://www.theage.com.au/ftimages/2005/08/30/1125302540219.html
3
Objectives of Research
• Determine flood levels based on wind-surge, wave setup, subsidence,
eustatic sea level rise, and astronomical tides
• Calculate the area of flooding inundation
• Estimate the cost of property damages
• Compare results between hurricane scenarios
4
Site Location – Corpus Christi, TX
http://www.theage.com.au/ftimages/2005/08/30/1125302540219.html
http://maps.google.com
5
Site Location – Corpus Christi, TX
http://www.theage.com.au/ftimages/2005/08/30/1125302540219.html
http://maps.google.com
6
Selection of Hurricanes
Selected historical storms
• Bret, Beulah
• Carla with alternate track
Storm Date
(Name)
Central
Pressure
(mb)
Radius to
Maximum
Wind (km)
SaffirSimpson
Category
Observed
Open Coast
Surge (m)
Sep 1961 (Carla)
936
56
4
3.3 - 3.7
Sep 1967 (Beulah)
950
46
3
2.4 - 2.9
Jul 1970 (Celia)
944
17
3
2.7 - 2.8
Jul 1980 (Allen)
945
37
3
2.1 - 3.7
Aug 1999 (Bret)
953
19
3
0.9 - 1.5
nhc.noaa.gov
7
Projected Hurricane Intensification
Predict future storms:
• Project intensification based on
projected SST rise (Wigley 2004 with
IPCC scenarios B1, A1B, A1FI)
• Modify historical storm intensity
Intensification approximation:
Knutson & Tuleya (2004, 2008)
8% intensification per 1 oC SST rise
8
Projected Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise:
• Eustatic rise projection (Wigley 2004
with IPCC scenarios B1, A1B, A1FI)
• Estimated historical subsidence rate:
4.6 mm/yr historical relative rate
- 1.7 mm/yr historical eustatic rate
= 2.9 mm/yr subsidence
9
Projected Hurricane Intensification
10
Flood Level Estimation
• ADCIRC – used for water levels
• SWAN – coupled with ADCIRC to determine
wave setup
• XBEACH – barrier island is lowered to account
for overwash and breaching
11
Inundation and Damage Estimation
Flood inundation:
• In GIS framework
• USGS topography
• Inundation elevation
= Surge + Relative SLR
+ Wave setup ± Tide
Property damages:
• In GIS framework
• City of Corpus Christi parcel data
• FEMA (2001) loss estimation
12
Results – Hurricane Bret
13
Results – Hurricane Bret
14
Results – Hurricane Beulah
15
Results – Hurricane Beulah
16
Results – Hurricane Carla
17
Results – Hurricane Carla
18
Flooding Inundation
Inundation:
• Bret:
• 1.2 to 1.6 times by 2030
• 1.6 to 3.7 times by 2080
• Beulah:
• 1.1 to 1.2 times by 2030
• 1.2 to 1.8 times by 2080
• Carla (shifted):
• 1.02 to 1.06 times by 2030
• 1.06 to 1.25 times by 2080
19
Property Damages
Property Damages:
• Bret:
• 2.5 to 5 times by 2030
• 5 to 50 times by 2080
• Beulah:
• 1.5 to 2 times by 2030
• 2 to 4.3 times by 2080
• Carla (shifted):
• 1.1 to 1.3 times by 2030
• 1.3 to 2.1 times by 2080
20
Parcel Damages – Residential & Small
Businesses
Parcel Damages – Residential
& Small Businesses:
• Bret:
• 1.5 to 2.1 times by 2030
• 2.1 to 7.3 times by 2080
• Beulah:
• 1.1 to 1.2 times by 2030
• 1.2 to 2.1 times by 2080
• Carla (shifted):
• 1.1 to 1.4 times by 2030
• 1.4 to 2.1 times by 2080
21
Parcel Damages – Refineries
Parcel Damages – Refineries
• Bret:
• 1 to 1.2 times by 2030
• 1.2 to 9.2 times by 2080
• Beulah:
• 1.1 to 1.2 times by 2030
• 1.2 to 1.9 times by 2080
• Carla (shifted):
• 1.1 to 1.3 times by 2030
• 1.3 to 3.7 times by 2080
22
Parcel Damages – Downtown
Parcel Damages – Downtown
• Bret:
• 1 to 26 times by 2030
• 26 to 382 times by 2080
• Beulah:
• 1.2 to 1.5 times by 2030
• 1.5 to 2.2 times by 2080
• Carla (shifted):
• 1.003 to 1.004 times by 2030
• 1.004 to 1.008 times by 2080
23
Parcel Damages – Barrier Island
Parcel Damages – Barrier Island
• Bret:
• 5.2 to 14.9 times by 2030
• 14.9 to 126.6 times by 2080
• Beulah:
• 1.7 to 2.9 times by 2030
• 2.9 to 4.2 times by 2080
• Carla (shifted):
• 1 to 1.01 times by 2030
• 1.01 to 1.03 times by 2080
24
Conclusions
• Inundated area:
• Up to 1.7 times more by 2030
• Up to 3.7 times more by 2080
• More frequently-occurring surge events have potential to have
largest economic impact:
• $55M increase per 1oC of warming (Bret)
• $75M increase per 1oC of warming (Beulah)
• $210M increase per 1oC of warming (Carla, shifted)
• Climate change has the greatest impact on smaller storms
• Barrier island inundation will occur more frequently
Some notes:
• Economic evaluation only includes structural damages
• The City of Corpus Christi has more topographic relief than most other
coastal Texas communities
25
Questions?
26