Transcript Climate Change in Cambodia - Asia Economic Forum (AEF)

Making Climate Change Work:
Challenges and Opportunities for Economy
and Development in Cambodia
Lay Khim, E&E Team Leader, UNDP Cambodia
Asia Economic Forum – 7 April 2009
Presentation structure:
1. Climate change in SE Asia and
Cambodia
2. Cambodia: Projection and implications
3. Potential opportunities
4. Current initiatives to build upon
5. Conclusion
1. Climate Change in SE Asia and
Cambodia
Temperature increase
Figure: Projection of average daily maximum temperature (1980s – 2090s)
© Water & Climate change in Lower Mekong Basin Project / Helsinki University of Technology & SEA START
Regional Center http://users.tkk.fi/u/mkummu/water&cc/
Climate scenario used: ECHAM4 A2
Changes in precipitation patterns – erratic, unpredictable
Figure: Annual precipitation in the 1980s and future change in %
(decadal average: 1980s – 2090s)
© Water & Climate change in Lower Mekong Basin Project / Helsinki University of Technology & SEA START Regional Center
http://users.tkk.fi/u/mkummu/water&cc/
Climate scenario used: ECHAM4 A2
Vulnerability to climate change
Source: Reproduced with permission from EEPSEA. Vulnerability as composite of exposure to
climatic hazards, sensitivity to the hazards, and adaptive capacity
2. Cambodia: Projection and
Implications
• Cambodia’s temperature would increase up
to 1.35 - 2.50C in 2100
• Annual rainfall would increase between 3
and 35% from current condition; lowland
areas seem to be more affected than
highland areas
(Source: First V&A Assessment: with two Global Circulation Models (GCM) : CCSR &
CSIRO, and two emission scenarios: SRESA2 & SRESB1)
Cambodia mean annual temperature anomaly
Source: Oxford
University (2008)
Potential Impacts – floods & drought
• Cambodia is vulnerable to floods and droughts.
• High dependency on rain-fed farming makes agriculture sector particularly
vulnerable.
• Floods and drought are recognised as one of the main contributors to
poverty.
Map of flood-prone communes
Map of drought-prone communes
Source: WFP
Various implications
• Past known economic losses:
Between 1998-2002, floods caused 70% of
production losses of rice, while drought 20%. The
floods of 2000-2002 only caused USD 205 million
damage.
• Cambodia’s economy is rated as one of the
most vulnerable to impacts of climate change on
fisheries. (Allison et al 2009)
Destructive floods have
become more frequent in
recent years. (INC)
• Sea level rise – e.g. 1m rise can submerge
56% of Koh Kong City
 damage to infrastructure, agriculture,
tourism, and livelihood
Various implications (cont.)
• Significant implications for food security,
especially in undiversified agriculture & economy
(High dependency on single crop rice and low processing
capacity within the country)
• Risk of water quality degradation and sanitation
• Health: increase in water-related / tropical diseases
such as malaria and dengue.
 Neglecting climate change impacts could reverse
the current development efforts and investments.
e.g. Irrigation or infrastructure development scheme not considering
future climate change scenario could fail due to changing climatic
conditions in the near future.
3. Potential opportunities
• Appropriate technologies for climate change
adaptation, energy efficiency and renewable energy
schemes available for transfer to developing countries
• Low carbon economy will enhance economic
efficiency
• Benefits from carbon trading / financing
• Climate change related financing increasingly
available (bilateral donors, UNDP, WB, etc.)
• Scope for private sector engagement , contribution &
benefit.
Opportunities for low carbon economy and
enhanced economic efficiency
• Energy supply – e.g. improved supply and distribution efficiency,
Renewable sources, security and access
• Transport – e.g. Hybrid vehicles, emission standards, biofuels,
Public transport, non-motorised transport
• Buildings – e.g. passive and active solar integrated buildings,
improved insulation
• Industry – e.g. Upgrading of factories, processing lines / schemes
etc.
• Agriculture – e.g. improved agricultural practices
• Waste management – e.g. landfill methane recovery; waste to
energy; composting; recycling and waste minimization
• Forestry – e.g. Reforestation; forest management; reduced
deforestation
(Examples from
IPCC)
Carbon Finance
• Carbon trade global value:
2006USD 31 billion
2007USD 64 billion
2008USD 118 billion
Source:
New
Carbon
Finance
• Untapped potential in Cambodia and SE Asia in carbon finance:
- Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
e.g. Samrong Thom Methane-fired Power Generation
 Total GHG emission reduction for 7 years: 47,544 tCO2e
Total income at $15/tCO2e: US$ 713,160
- Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation
(REDD)
One Cambodia example: benefits for investor
Samrong Thom Methane-fired Power Generation
Invest in Biogas
Digester
Invest in GHG emission
reduction
$$$ Pig sale
$$$ Electricity sale
$$$ Carbon credit
•
4. Initiatives to build upon in
Cambodia
Highest-level recognition of climate change as a threat to
Cambodia: Rectangular Strategy-II (Sept 2008)
Policy tools increasingly available (NAPA)
•
Institutions and policy tools being set up
(e.g. National Committee on Climate Change involving
19 ministries / govt agencies; National Adaptation
Programme of Action (NAPA))
•
Increasing recognition of schemes such as CDM and
REDD by government and non-government entities
•
Various financial and technical support potential from
development partners
•
Growing private sector
5. Conclusion
• Climate change is not an environmental issue
– it is a developmental challenge & potential opportunity
• Neglecting climate change impacts could reverse the current
development efforts and investments. Cost of not acting is
significant.
• Measures to create crisis resilient economy have a lot in common
with increasing adaptive capacity to climate change, when due
consideration is made.
• Ensure climate change mainstreaming in all sectors: agriculture,
water, finance, health, infrastructure, energy, transport, construction,
tourism…
 various tools, technologies and financial resources available
for the governments, private sector and CSOs
• Major role for private sector in creating:
- low-carbon economy (cleaner and more cost-effective development)
- self-reliant & resilient economy
- expanding appropriate climate change adaptation schemes
Furthermore:
• Still great scope of regional collaboration in financing,
technology transfer, research & development,
information and data sharing
e.g. high resolution climate data available in Japan
would help include many important future climate
characteristics of the SE Asia region, especially tropical
storm.
e.g. more responsible Direct Foreign Investments should
ensure climate change considerations both in mitigation
and adaptation terms.
Thank you
For UNDP’s work on climate change in Cambodia, please contact:
Lay Khim, Team Leader & Assistant Country Director, [email protected]
Halley McCann, Climate Change Programme Analyst,
[email protected]
Environment & Energy Cluster
UNDP Cambodia
Some images in the presentation reproduced with permissions from:
• Economy and Environment Programme for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA)
• Helsinki University of Technology
• Southeast Asia START Regional Centre