Transcript Global environmental change and the Caribbean

Global environmental change
and the Caribbean
GECAFS Scenario Development
Workshop, Kingston, Jamaica
1st September 2005
Professor Anthony Clayton
Sir Arthur Lewis Institute
University of the West Indies
Millennium Development Goals
Target 9: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies
and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources
Indicators
• Proportion of land covered by forest
• Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface area
• Energy use (kg oil equivalent) per $1 GDP (at PPP)
• Carbon dioxide emissions (per capita) and consumption of CFCs (ODP tons)
• Proportion of population using solid fuels
Target 10: Halve, by 2015, the proportion without sustainable access to safe
drinking water and basic sanitation
Indicators
• Proportion of urban & rural population with access to an improved water source
• Proportion of urban & rural population with access to improved sanitation
Deforestation
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The countries and territories of the region are
deforesting at an average rate of -1.7% per annum. No
country shows a positive trend, but some appear to
have stabilized, with no net losses over 1990-95.
Thus the problem is concentrated in a few countries
with high rates of deforestation, in particular Jamaica,
St Lucia and Haiti (CARICOM) and the British Virgin
Islands (non-CARICOM). These countries are not
currently on track to meet the relevant MDG target.
Causes
Poor agricultural practices, uncontrolled development, charcoal burning…
Protection of biodiversity
Caribbean = 228,680km², of which 108,424km² (47.4%)
is protected.
This varies from 67.2% (Martinique) to 0% (Aruba).
Some countries have designated substantial areas, but in
some cases there is little effective enforcement or
policing and insufficient financial resources to actually
protect the designated areas or otherwise change the
way in which people behave and utilize resources in
environmentally sensitive zones.
Source: Human Development Index 2003 modified by C. Hayle, 2004
Water and sanitation
Regions
% with sanitation
% with water
Caribbean average (15) 86
90
LAC average
77
86
World average
61
82
Developing average
51
78
IADB (2004): the Caribbean island nations (not including Haiti)
already had 92% access to adequate water supplies and 96% had
sanitation in 1990. Just 989,000 people still need drinking water
access; the total investment needed is US$193m. Jamaica has the
greatest investment requirement (US$89m). Some 955,000 still
require sanitation; this will require US$254m. Jamaica again has
the greatest investment requirement (US$123m).
Water and sanitation: conclusions
 Most
island nations in the region are close to
universal supply of water and sanitation.
 Haiti – predictably – has the greatest deficit,
with only a quarter of the population with
proper sanitation, and currently appears
unlikely to meet the MDG, although this may
change as a result of new financial assistance
packages.
Relevance to the Caribbean (?)
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There is little overlap between the MDGs and the actual
environmental problems of the Caribbean.
The most pressing environmental problems of the Caribbean are
probably those related to global climate change and to the
(partially linked) deterioration in the state of the coral reefs.
Other issues, such as the management of watersheds and supplies,
solid and liquid waste disposal, deforestation, over-fishing,
atmospheric pollution (with particular regard to particulate
content), inefficient use of energy and other resources, the
conservation of biodiversity (with particular regard to endemic
species) and so on are also important, but the first two issues are
likely to have the most serious impact on the region.
Dying reefs
 Reefs
have multiple economic functions; they
maintain fisheries, protect the coast from storm
surge, support tourism etc.
 A 2003 survey noted that there has been a
“massive region-wide decline of corals across
the entire Caribbean basin, with the average
hard coral cover on reefs being reduced by 80%,
from about 50% to 10% cover, in 3 decades.”
Healthy reef
Dead reef, carpeted in algae
Causes
•
Suspected causes include over-fishing, pollution (excess nutrient
inflow), smothering by sediments released by soil erosion and
deforestation, sea temperature rise, hurricanes and disease (esp. the
virus that wiped out a keystone species in the mid-80s, the sea urchin
Diadema antillarum).
•
It is important to note that the first 3 or 4 factors listed above are
anthropogenic, but the last two are natural. Storm damage occurs
frequently in the Caribbean, and is part of the natural dynamic
processes of coral reef ecology. The poor condition of the reefs today
highlights the probable importance of multiple ‘hits’; coral reefs are
probably capable of dealing with one or two of these factors at a time,
but not with all of them simultaneously.
•
The most important remedial action is to control over-fishing, but
some governments have been reluctant to implement controls.
Climate change
 The
majority of the environmental problems
in the Caribbean can be controlled via
domestic policy.
 The main exception is also the issue of
greatest concern; climate change.
Climate change (IPCC data)
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Global mean surface air temperature has increased by between
0.3°C and 0.6°C since the late 19th century. Recent years have
been among the warmest since 1860.
Global sea level has risen by between 10 and 25 cm over the past
100 years; much of this rise may be related to the increase in
global mean temperature.
The current low, mid and high projections are for further rises in
global mean surface air temperature (relative to 1990) of 1ºC, 2ºC
or 3.5ºC by 2100.
The current low, mid and high projections for average sea level
rise (as a result of thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of
glaciers and icesheets) are 15cm, 50cm or 95 cm by 2100, plus
increased incidence of severe weather conditions and storm surge.
The sea was rising before…
Rising sea levels are a natural phenomenon during
interglacial periods; mean sea level has risen about
400 feet since the last Ice Age ended 20,000 years
ago (Britain was not an island 10,000 years ago).
Over the last 7,500 years the rate has averaged 1/16
inch per year.
 Climate change projections have to distinguish the
background rate from any human-caused effect.

Vulnerability
Problems likely to occur where a particular set of social, economic
and geographical factors overlap - countries with:
 A high percentage of infrastructure and main settlements in areas
vulnerable to e.g. sea level rise.
 A narrow economic base, especially if this too is concentrated in
vulnerable areas.
 A shortage of the skills needed for economic diversification or a
move down the value chain.
..are more likely to be severely impacted by e.g. climate change,
with few compensating effects, and may also have difficulty in
reducing this vulnerability.
This combination will include many island states, but also some
mainland states e.g. Bangladesh.
Climate change & the Caribbean
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The countries of the Caribbean would be vulnerable to any
significant degree of climate change.
Much of the key infrastructure - cities and urban developments,
tourism resorts, industrial infrastructure, airports and wharves –
lies at or near sea level, and would therefore be threatened.
The concentration of infrastructure reflects the concentration of
economic activity, so that most of the GDP of the Caribbean
islands is also generated in the coastal zone.
Thus the social and economic viability of some of these island
countries might be threatened by significant climate change,
partly by the associated rise in sea-level, and partly by the
projected increase in the incidence of category 4 and 5 hurricanes.
The impact on Jamaica
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Narrow economic base; there are three major
sources of f/x: remittances, tourism and bauxite.
The travel and tourism sector is the most
vulnerable; the infrastructure is concentrated into
areas exposed to sea level rise and severe
weather conditions.
The economic consequences
11.8% of Jamaica’s GDP derives directly from the
industry, 36.0% of GDP derives directly or indirectly
from the industry (Caribbean averages 4.5% and 14.8%)
 10.7% of Jamaica’s workforce is directly employed and
31.8% of all jobs are supported by the travel and tourism
industry (Caribbean averages 5.2% and 15.5%, world
averages 2.8% and 8.1%).
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World rank
Country
% T&T of total jobs
Five Caribbean nations are in the global top twenty in terms of the % of total
employment related directly or indirectly to tourism; Jamaica is 5 th in this group.
1
Antigua and Barbuda
95.0
6
Bahamas
69.9
7
Aruba
69.0
9
Barbados
58.3
18
Jamaica
31.8
27
Belize
23.1
31
Dominican Republic
22.2
63
Cuba
11.8
71
Trinidad and Tobago
10.4
138
Puerto Rico
5.8
Increasing reliance
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By 2014 14.8% of Jamaica’s GDP will derive directly from the
industry (up from 11.8%), and 42.9 of all GDP (up from 36.0%)
will derive directly or indirectly from the industry. Caribbean
averages 5.2% (up from 4.5%) and 16.5% (up from 14.8%); the
relative importance of the tourism industry will rise for the region
as a whole, but to a lesser extent than in Jamaica.
By 2014 13.5% (up from 10.7%) of Jamaica’s workforce will be
directly employed and 38.1% (up from 31.8%) of all jobs
supported by tourism. Caribbean averages of 5.9% (up from 5.2%)
and 17.1% (up from 15.5%); Jamaica is expected to continue to
move further above the regional averages. Projected world
averages for 2014 of 2.9% and 8.6% are expected to be littlechanged from 2004.
Exposed infrastructure
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IPCC projects rises of 15cm, 50cm or 95 cm by 2100,
plus increased incidence of severe weather conditions
and storm surge.
There are 45 major airports in the Caribbean. Of these,
23 have runways <20 feet above sea level.
Jamaica has two international airports; Sangster
International and NMI. The runway elevation at SI is
1.2m, NMI is 3.0m.
Many of the hotels and leisure facilities are on or near
beaches, therefore low-lying.
Conclusion: Jamaica’s most important industry is vulnerable
Kyoto: has the response been adequate?
The Kyoto protocol on climate change came into effect on 16th
February 2005; it commits 35 industrial nations to reduce their
greenhouse gas emissions by 4.8% from 1990 levels by 2012, when
the treaty expires.
The US, the largest source of carbon emissions, has not ratified the
protocol, partly because it imposes no limits on the gases produced
by developing countries.
China, which now emits almost as much carbon as the 25 members of
the EU combined, and will shortly overtake them to become the
world’s second largest source of carbon emissions, is exempt.
As a result of these non-ratifications and exemptions, UN projections
indicate that the treaty will reduce the currently projected rise in
average surface temperature of 1.4 to 5.8°C by 2100 by just 0.1%.
USA & China – the major carbon sources
So what can we do?
Adaptation planning; reduce risk exposure.
 Relocate key infrastructure (airports, roads,
settlements), using zoning and planning controls.
 Allow for e.g. beach erosion; enforce set-backs.
 Enforce building standards.
 Soft engineering, flood plains as buffer zones, managed
retreat.
 Improve rapid response mechanisms, civil defence;
evacuation routes and shelters.
Is it worth doing?
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Thanks to Pat McCalla of
NEPA for this slide!
The average cost of each major flood event in Jamaica
over the last twenty years is equivalent to > 1% of the
2002 budget.
Thank you !