Transcript Results from a Case Study Screening - Astra

Perceived Climate Change
Impacts and Exposure Units
Results from a case study screening in the Baltic Sea Region
ASTRA Conference
18-19 May 2006
Klaipeda
Jürgen Kropp & Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Study Design Objectives
There are potentially multiple impacts of climate change
– but to which of them should we adapt?
Complement scientifc views with stakeholder views
Exploration of focal exposure units, possible responses
and policy options
Klaus Eisenack
Jürgen Kropp
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Methods and Concepts
Semi-structured questionnaire send to 40 partners
Conceptual base for structure
• Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA): Impacts, Exposure
Unit, Adaptation
• DPSIR Framework: Driver – Pressure – State – Impact –
Response (mitigation, adaptation)
• Force Field Analysis: Chances, risks, supporting factors,
constraining factors.
• Anticipated information needs
• Provision of case study context
Coding of answers, parallel development of code system
Synopsis based on data bank which links the codes
Klaus Eisenack
Jürgen Kropp
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
General Observations
Views from stakeholders and scientific reports on
potential impacts of climate change are mostly
consistent
In many cases exposure units are only described in a
very vague or general way
There seems to be little „strategic“ knowledge on actors
and institutions which support or constrain adaptation to
climate change
Most existing climate change policies are related to
• Natural hazards
• National greenhouse gas mitigation strategies
Conclusion: Climate Change is still mainly framed in
terms of GHG mitigation and impacts
Klaus Eisenack
Jürgen Kropp
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Focal Exposure Units
Built environment: Urban area and infrastructure
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•
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Heating: energy demand, housing conditions.
Water supply systems
Further: coastal protection, communication, transportation and technical
infrastructure, cultural heritage, shore infrastructure, waste dumps.
Natural environment: ecosystems
•
Coast: erosion, coastal ecosystems, beaches, shore meadows.
Economic Sectors: economic and material losses
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Tourism: tourism in general, winter tourism.
Forestry: forests, municipal parks.
Transportation: roads, sea transport, less black-ice, ports, airports.
Energy: power lines, hydro power, heating.
Further: agriculture, fishery, building sector, industry.
Further Actors:
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•
•
Inhabitants and private households
Coastal management authorities
Further: local adminstration, spatial planning authorities.
Klaus Eisenack
Jürgen Kropp
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Focal Impacts
Storms: more frequent storms, high wind speed, stronger storms,
higher waves, hurricanes, thunderstorms, related: higher
precipitation, storm-surges.
Sea-level rise, related: floods.
Flooding: rivers, lakes, dams, flash floods, rise of river water level.
Storm Surges: sea floods, intensification of storm surges, increased
flood risk, high wind speed, waves and water level, storm tides,
erosion, related: storms.
Precipitation: overall increase, more water in reservoirs, changed
water supply, heavy rainfalls, increases in winter/decrease in
summer, related: snow, floods, etc.
Warm winters: less frequency of winter frost, mild weather in winter,
less cold winter, shorter winter.
Klaus Eisenack
Jürgen Kropp
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Actual and Potential
Responses and Institutions
Communication and knowledge: education of planners and the public,
environmental awareness and public relations, availability of relevant information and
adaptation research, communication and conflicts between different stakholders (e.g.
policy makers, administrations, planners, scientists, rescue services)
Spatial planning: land use zoning and identification of affected areas, protection of
planned areas, retention areas, legal and economic responsibilities, building
restrictions (e.g. hight and ground floor level, shore line) standards for technical
infrastructure (e.g. water supply, traffic planning)
Local institutions: local administration and departments (e.g. construction,
environment, development, coast), services (water, energy, resuce), committees
(crisis, investigation), port authorities, environmental centres, compensation of losses
National institutions: ministries (e.g. enviroment, building and regional
development, forestry, trade and industry, transport and communciation), national
environmental protection agency, national strategies (coastal protection, adaptation),
national environmental objectives, compensation of losses
Further: cooperation between regional and national level, changes in infrastructure,
regional institutions, insurances
There were more institutions mentioned in only one or two questionnaires
Klaus Eisenack
Jürgen Kropp
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Conclusions I
Since knowledge about the extend of many climate
change impacts on the local scale is highly uncertain…
… such that solutions to this problem have to focus on
exposure units, vulnerability analysis and increasing
adaptive capacity,…
… it is necessary that stakeholders change the problem
framing (shifting from impacts to adaptive capacity).
Klaus Eisenack
Jürgen Kropp
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Conclusions II
Potential starting points for the development of adaptation
policies in the BSR:
Urban building activities: Window of opportunity?
Adaptation of water supply systems
Energy utilities and planning for energy infrastructure
Adaptation of transportation infrastructure
Integration of climate change into hazard protection
policies and coastal protection
Development of tourism and forestry
Klaus Eisenack
Jürgen Kropp
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Thank You for Your Attention!
Jürgen Kropp
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Telegraphenberg C4
14473 Potsdam
Germany
Email:
[email protected]
[email protected]
Klaus Eisenack
Jürgen Kropp
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research