Transcript SPECIAL SESSION OF AMCEN ON CLIMATE CHANGE NAIROBI

SPECIAL SESSION OF AMCEN ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, NAIROBI
25TH – 29TH MAY 2009
Case Study : Ghana’s CC vulnerability
assessment
Presented by : Rudolph S. Kuuzegh
Director, Min of Environment,
Science & Technology, Ghana
Outline of Presentation
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Ghana: UNFCCC Implementation
Objective of the Study
Scope & focus
Vulnerability defined
Climatic trends and projections
Lessons learned
Challenges encountered
Recommendations
Ghana’s UNFCCC and KP History
• Signed the Convention at Rio Conference June,
1992
- Ratified Convention on 5th September 1995
- Ratified the Kyoto Protocol 16th November 2002
- Deposited the Instrument of Ratification at
UNHqrs in NY, March 2003
- By these acts, Ghana bound itself to meeting the
obligations under the Convention and the
Protocol.
History cont’d
In further fulfillment of obligations under the
Convention;
- Prepared and submitted to the COP initial
national communication with support from
GEF and other bilaterals. e.g. NCAP with
Netherlands support.
-Prepared the 2nd communication; to be
published soon.
Objective of the Study
- Assist developing Ghana, and may be others, in
preparing, formulating, implementing and
evaluating policies in relation to CC
- Raise awareness of the problem of CC
- Increase the involvement of policy makers,
scientists, ‘broad layers’ of the population in the
CC debate
- Impact the UNFCCC negotiating process
through raising of “burning issues”
- Establish environment and development
interaction for national sustainable development
Scope of the study
- Limited to eight (8) thematic areas
- Data limitations
- Inability to obtain a longer time series e.g.
for fish yields to match the climate
parameters
- Resource limitations
- GPRS does not focus on CC issues
Focus
- Building capacity
- Dissemination of the outcome of the 1st
communication
- Sensitization of policy makers e.g. MP(s),
Senior Public Servants of relevant MDA(s)
on the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol
Vulnerability
• The sensitivity, resilience and capacity of a
system to adopt to stress, perturbation or
fragility”
• Chris Park, Lancaster University, UK
defines vulnerability as
“ the process of estimating the susceptibility
to potential natural hazards, or
environmental changes”
Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and
Adaptation Assessment
From national vulnerability assessments, it has more
apparent that climate change will affect the economy of
Ghana because of observed adverse impacts on the
following sectors
– Human health - increase in diseases incidence and prevalence
such as malaria, CSM, guinea worm, diarrhoea, etc.
– Agriculture - reduced yields/quantities
• Cocoa production
• Root-crops (cassava, yam and cocoyam) production
• Fisheries production
– Land management – decrease in soil fertility, increase in
desertification and biodiversity loss
– Water Resources – decrease in available water
– Coastal Zone – exacerbated coastal erosion
Climate Scenarios in Ghana
• In addition, following have been carried
out:
– Climate Scenarios have been developed
using base data 1960 – 2000 and projections
up to 2080 for all agro-ecological zones
– Climate change and poverty incidences
– Impact of climate change on women’s
livelihood
Historical Climate Data
1.Trends
Historical climate data observed by the
Ghana Meteorological Agency across the
country between 1960 and 2000, (a fortyyear period), show a progressive and
discernible rise in temperature and a
concomitant decrease in rainfall in all
agro-ecological zones of the country.
2. Temperature
• Future climate change scenarios
developed, based on the forty-year
observed data, also indicate that
temperature will continue to rise on
average of about 0.6oC, 2.0oC and 3.9oC
by the year 2020, 2050 and 2080
respectively, in all agro-ecological zones in
Ghana.
3. Rainfall
• Rainfall is also predicted to decrease on
average by 2.8%, 10.9% and 18.6% by
2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively in all
agro-ecological zones.
4. Sea level rise
• Scenarios of sea level changes with
respect to 1990 mean predict an average
rise of 5.8cm, 16.5cm and 34.5cm by
2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively.
• Already at the current sea level, the east
coast of Ghana, (Keta area) is
experiencing an annual coastal erosion
rate of 3 meters.
• Graphical presentation of trends and
projections by ecological zones
Sudan Savannah Zone
T o t a l a n n u a l R a i n f a l l 1 9 6 1 t o 2 0 0 0 i n t h e Su d a n
Sa v a n a .
1500.0
1400.0
Total(mm)
1300.0
1200.0
1100.0
1000.0
900.0
800.0
700.0
600.0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
T OT A L
16
5 per . M ov. A vg. (T OT A L)
2000
Guinea Savannah Zone
17
Transitional Zone
18
Forest Zone
19
Rain-Forest Zone
20
Coastal Savannah Zone
21
Scenarios for Annual Mean Rainfall (mm)
2500
2000
Mean Annual
Rainfall (mm)
1500
1000
500
0
SSZ
GSZ
TZ
DFZ
RFZ
CSZ
Agro-ecological Zones
Base Year
2020
2050
2080
23
Scenarios for Mean Sea Level Rise
24
Ecological Zones and Their Mean Poverty Levels
Ecoclimatic
Zone
Temperature
MIN
Coastal Savanna 23.8
Rainforest
23.6
Semi Decidious
21.8
Transitional
22.2
Guinea Savanna 21.8
Sudan Savanna
22.6
MAX
30.4
29.3
30.8
31.9
34.8
34.8
SOURCES: METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES DEPARTMENT
Ghana Living Standards Survey 4
2000
Rainfall
MEAN
27.1
26.45
26.3
27.05
27.1
28.7
MEAN
750
2250
1605
1350
1175
870
Mean
Poverty
Level
34.8
45
60.89
84.36
93.1
90.6
Eight (8) Thematic Areas
Agric (cereals), coastal areas, water resources were
assessed in an earlier phase.
2nd phase was conducted on the ff eight thematic areas;
• CC Scenarios development
• CC impact on fisheries
• CC impact on human health
• CC impact on land management
• CC impact and poverty linkages
• CC impact on root crop production
• CC impact and women’s livelihoods
• CC impact and Cocoa production
Key Lessons
• Ghana’s economy is highly dependent on
climate sensitive sectors which have to be
watched closely
• Strong relationship between climate and
poverty levels
• Inadequate relevant data and information
for facilitating the appreciation of climate
change
• Policy makers and businesses need to
consider climate change as a priority for
poverty reduction programmes
Challenges encountered
• CC not prioritized in the GPRS. CC is just
another development challenge among
many others such as HIV/AIDS etc
• Adaptation strategies more on sector basis
(cross cutting issues and inter linkages not
inadequately addressed)
• Time series for study restrictive e.g. in the
fisheries sector
• Resources adequate but not sufficient
Recommendations
• Deeply involve policy makers, businesses
and other major stakeholders esp. women
• Encourage Climate Change Research and
Education
• Develop insurance schemes
• Strengthen institutions & organizations
• Build & disseminate early warning systems
• Strengthen Regional Collaboration
Thank you