Transcript Making Climate Change Part of Everyday

Making Climate Change part of
everyday decisions
Lynn Helbrecht
Climate Change/SWAP Coordinator
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
“Talk is not enough
Climate Changing; heat is on,
Time to do something.”
Lynn Helbrecht
Climate Change/SWAP Coordinator
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
FOR TODAY -- TWO TOPICS:
1. Brief overview of WDFW’s approach to
addressing climate change.
2.Lessons learned in the last 3 years –
and how we are modifying our program
as a result
WDFW: responding to the challenge of
climate change
SCIENCE
Assessing the vulnerability of
fish, wildlife and their habitat
to climate change
WDFW
Strategic
Goals for
Climate
Change
•
•
•
EDUCATION
INTEGRATION
Building our capacity integrating adaptation
to respond
into core work
COLLABORATION
With agencies, tribes,
conservation partners
Drive conservation at broad landscape scales in response to a
changing climate
Provide education for employees and the public regarding the
implications of climate change for fish, wildlife and habitats.
Build on existing and develop new partnerships
WDFW lead a
stakeholder advisory
group to develop
recommendations for
fish, wildlife and plants
for the Washington
State Integrated
Climate response
Strategy.
Prepared in response to 2009
state legislation – the Climate
Leadership Act
WDFW: responding to the
challenge of climate change
Washington’s Climate Change Response Strategy
Table of Contents
Integrated State Climate Change Response Strategy
released March, 2012
WDFW: responding to the challenge of
climate change
SCIENCE
EDUCATION
Assessing the vulnerability of fish, Building our capacity to
wildlife and their habitat to climate respond
change
WDFW
Strategic
Goals for
Climate
Change
•
•
•
INTEGRATION
Identifying adaptation
opportunities and integrating to
our core work
COLLABORATION
With agencies, tribes
and conservation
partners
Drive conservation at broad landscape scales in response to a
changing climate
Provide education for employees and the public regarding the
implications of climate change for fish, wildlife and habitats.
Build on existing and develop new partnerships
WDFW: responding to the challenge of
climate change
SCIENCE
EDUCATION
Assessing the vulnerability of fish, Building our capacity to
wildlife and their habitat to climate respond
change
WDFW
Strategic
Goals for
Climate
Change
•
•
•
INTEGRATION
Identifying adaptation
opportunities and integrating into
our core work
COLLABORATION
With agencies, tribes
and conservation
partners
Drive conservation at broad landscape scales in response to a
changing climate
Provide education for employees and the public regarding the
implications of climate change for fish, wildlife and habitats.
Build on existing and develop new partnerships
Examples of Climate Science at WDFW
• Pacific Northwest Climate Change
Vulnerability Study [in progress]
Pacific Northwest Climate Change
Vulnerability Assessment
Designed to answer the questions:
Which species and systems are most sensitive to climate change?
Which places are likely to see the most change?
Which species and systems will be able to adapt?
How can managers use this information to inform their work?
Partners: USGS, UW, TNC, WDFW, IDFG, U of I, NWF
Results and Data can be found at:
http://www.climatevulnerability.org/
American Pika
Sensitivity & Confidence Scores
https://courses.washington.edu/ccdb/drupal
Sensitivity Index for WA’s SGCN 58 Birds
Climate Gradient Corridors Analysis
Statewide product identifies areas for species to move from
warmer to cooler temperatures.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
1.Species ranges will move to track
suitable climates.
2.Climatic gradients between core areas
will remain largely constant.
3.Species range shifts will be more likely to
occur through natural areas.
For more information: waconnected.org/climate-change-analysis/
WDFW: responding to the challenge of
climate change
SCIENCE
Assessing the vulnerability of
fish, wildlife and their habitat
to climate change
WDFW
Strategic
Goals for
Climate
Change
•
•
•
EDUCATION
INTEGRATION
COLLABORATION
Building our capacity
to respond
Identifying adaptation
With agencies,
opportunities and integrating tribes and
into our core work
conservation
partners
Drive conservation at broad landscape scales in response to a
changing climate
Provide education for employees and the public regarding the
implications of climate change for fish, wildlife and habitats.
Build on existing and develop new partnerships
How will climate change affect WDFW?
• Acquisition of new lands for habitat
• Restoration projects – will our investment continue
to provide expected benefits over time?
• Technical Assistance and Grants– are we providing
appropriate guidance for marine and riparian areas?
• Species management and recovery planning
• Permitting – are we adequately considering the risk
of increased/low flows?
• Planning processes – SWAP, wildlife management
areas, business plans
• Infrastructure; culverts, roads, hatcheries, stream
crossings.
PART II – WHAT HAVE WE
LEARNED?
Lesson #1
Identify “Climate Sensitive” decisions first, THEN
figure out what science or other tools are
needed to inform those decisions.
HOW?
• Two-day workshop with WDFW managers in fisheries
and aquatic resources, focused on the Skagit
Watershed
• Small groups identify climate sensitive decisions:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Harvest Management,
Hatcheries
Habitat Restoration
Fish Passage
Habitat Acquisition
Hydraulic Permit Approvals
HARVEST MANAGEMENT
Climate Sensitive
Decisions
1.Develop Yield Models
2.
Monitoring
Why is this decision vulnerable?







3.
Determining directed
harvest (salmon, all fish,
shellfish species, stock,
hatchery vs wild fish)
4. Recovery goals balanced
with harvest goals




What is the risk of not
addressing climate?
Based on past data.
Based on previous/static conditions.
Tends to over predict overharvest.
False assumptions (pH)
Overestimate production = overharvest =
increase extinction risk on non harvested.
Increased variability = increased uncertainty
= reduced harvest or increased monetary
effort.
May need to increase partnerships (share
data)
Overharvest vulnerable species.
Missed harvest opportunity with nonvulnerable species.
VERY HIGH !!
Overestimating productivity sets unrealistic
goals.
Habitat capacity changes, changing balance
relationships
VERY HIGH
HIGH
VERY HIGH
HARVEST MANAGEMENT
Climate Sensitive
Decisions
1.Develop Yield Models
2.
Monitoring
Why is this decision vulnerable?







3.
Determining directed
harvest (salmon, all fish,
shellfish species, stock,
hatchery vs wild fish)
4. Recovery goals balanced
with harvest goals




What is the risk of not
addressing climate?
Based on past data.
Based on previous/static conditions.
Tends to over predict overharvest.
False assumptions (pH)
Overestimate production = overharvest =
increase extinction risk on non harvested.
Increased variability = increased uncertainty
= reduced harvest or increased monetary
effort.
May need to increase partnerships (share
data)
Overharvest vulnerable species.
Missed harvest opportunity with nonvulnerable species.
VERY HIGH !!
Overestimating productivity sets unrealistic
goals.
Habitat capacity changes, changing balance
relationships
VERY HIGH
HIGH
VERY HIGH
Climate
Sensitive
Decision
1. Models
Adaptation Option

Capture climate change
dynamics in models, new
distributions, stock structure.
Test models with new base
periods reflecting climate
change.
Use shorter, more recent data
sets.
Policy
Implications
Tribal
agreement
PFMC/PST
agreement
Budgets
Science or Information Needs Stakeholders
(why and rank?)

Provide guidance on climate
change base periods, data sets.
 Identify gaps and suggest

research and monitoring to
address.
 Inventory exiting models and

which parameters/data sets
may be most vulnerable.
 Examine model performance.
3.
 Put most vulnerable
Agreement
 Identify highest vulnerability
Determining
populations on high priority
among fishery
populations.
directed
list for monitoring.
managers, state,  Improved monitoring for most
harvest
 Begin planning for climate
tribal, federal,
vulnerable species. Both
change now, with other
PEMC.
productivity and harvest
managers, including adapting Legislation?
impacts.
to increased uncertainty.
 Projections of climate change
 Develop additional selective
impacts, species that will do
harvest tools, lower by catch
well and species that won’t?
tools.
 Review HGMPs for climate
change.
 Evaluate methods for
incorporating uncertainty.
4. and 5.
Building more long term
** More understanding of
Develop
uncertainty into population models
productivity dynamics of “other”
Yield models, (that inform harvest decisions),
species, the ones we don’t focus on.
balance
[precautionary yield models]. **
recovery
goals with
All
recreational
and
commercial
harvesters.
Harvesters,
NGOs, Salmon
Recovery
Boards, Other
Hs.
Lesson #2
The “inquiry” – asking the climate question is a
critical step. Providing guidance and tools to
do this in a structured, systematic manner is
key.
Identifying and documenting “why” a decision,
project, species or habitat is climate sensitive,
rather than a relative ranking or absolute
score.
Sensitivity Index for WA’s SGCNs 58 Birds
(12 incomplete)
Lesson #3: Climate change data has to be
presented in the context of existing stressors
Pacific Northwest Climate Change
Vulnerability Assessment
Designed to answer the questions:
Which species and systems are most sensitive to climate change?
Which places are likely to see the most change?
Which species and systems will be able to adapt?
How can managers use this information to inform their work?
Partners: USGS, UW, TNC, WDFW, IDFG, U of I, NWF
Results and Data can be found at:
http://www.climatevulnerability.org/
Lesson #4: Successful adaptation to climate
change means doing more of what we already
do (selectively), NOT a wholesale new approach
• .
Climate change information should help us
target existing efforts. Possibly also to bring
more support to efforts that will increase
resilience.
WDFW and its partners spend billions of dollars
restoring salmon habitat in Washington.
How could we use a climate change lens to target
those resources?
Slide credit: Tim Beechie, NW Fisheries Science Center
Salmon Restoration and Climate Adaptation
Slide credit: Tim Beechie, NW Fisheries Science Center
WHAT’S NEXT? WHERE ARE WE HEADED?
Develop a Climate Adaptation Handbook – consisting of a
series of real life pilot projects.
•
•
•
Work with active projects
Focus on integration – not climate as a stand-alone.
Pilot projects include:
o Culvert replacement
o State Wildlife Action Plan
o Nearshore restoration grant program,
o Oak-prairie restoration projects,
o Wildlife area management plans
o Technical assistance – riparian/marine shoreline
Departmental policy requiring consideration of climate
change in project design.
WDFW: responding to the challenge of
climate change
SCIENCE
EDUCATION
Assessing the vulnerability of fish, Building our capacity to
wildlife and their habitat to climate respond
change
WDFW
Strategic
Goals for
Climate
Change
•
•
•
INTEGRATION
Identifying adaptation
opportunities and integrating to
our core work
COLLABORATION
With agencies, tribes
and conservation
partners
Drive conservation at broad landscape scales in response to a
changing climate
Provide education for employees and the public regarding the
implications of climate change for fish, wildlife and habitats.
Build on existing and develop new partnerships
Lynn Helbrecht
Climate Change/SWAP Coordinator
WDFW
360-902-2238
[email protected]